"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Pattern Changing - Slow and Steady For Central and South

Forecast Image for Monday where showers and thunder could occur. Weakened
frontal boundary across North Central by Afternoon
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Diverging from forecast and SPC outlook today (showing thunder most areas), forewarned so could be off. Believe there will be very little rain over the weekend except toward perhaps North Volusia and North and along I-10 on Sunday, with thunder possible toward Gainesville, JAX, and north or toward DAB. Otherwise,
guidance is showing showers toward Orlando late day as a result of sea breeze convergence; however Convective Available Potential Energy for this time of year is barely suitable, and Lifted Indices are not much better than feeble. Can envision some showers at best and maybe only a good cloud deck materializing as inversion from high pressure that has been overhead weakens, with low topped showers as opposed to thunder. We are moving out of what has been a long established pattern while the 'Post big system' resulting in the tornado watch a while back slowly breaks down. Continued warm away from the beaches, reaching some 90Fs inland  with light winds, and an overnight onshore wind component maybe one more night well after dark, as has been the case for a few weeks now.

Toward Monday, boundary slides South, with another boundary approaching from the South Central Plains. Southern Branch jet will reside near the depicted Surface low and across the Northern to Central Gulf most of next week in various degrees
 MONDAY and BEYOND: The front shown across Central on Monday perhaps drops south a bit overnight but then lifts back north awaiting yet the next boundary. There has been some consistency now for 48 hours in varying degrees in GFS guidance, hence today's post. Showers and Thunder most likely near and north of Lake Okeechobee in days ahead next week, with some showers further south toward SE Florida. The main triggers would be the frontal boundaries resulting in convergence of sea breezes near it. Guidance is also showing that perhaps there will be no sea breeze at all, which would or could taper down the thunder chance; but, upper level temperatures are rather cool upstairs, combined with ample Convective Available Potential Energy CAPE (but not really excitingly so), and guidance rarely handles sea breezes in account of local data density. SPC already has a "See Text" for stronger storms on Monday near and north of the BeachLine (Magic Diving Line as referred to here time and time again)..Monday GFS does show a disturbance and good upward vertical velocities, but such depictions this far out  in time are perhaps not worth heeding conclusively as of this time today, but bears watching. If it verifies, strong storms Central on Monday. The only thing that has been constant is the rain chances, and thunder toward the east side of the state through Wednesday, with perhaps a day or two break here and there.

IN CLOSURE: Guidance has shown at some point or another this pattern will continue to varying degrees and locations for the remainder of the state into next weekend, so I expect we will hearing about some sort of rain chance on TV or other media outlets, time and place TBD.  It appears after this little dabble with frontal boundaries is over, although not shown, would be the next contender. HEAT...usually the hottest time of year near the East Coast is prior to onset of the Wet Season in Late May toward early to mid June.  ..but  this may not occur prior to a few days of possible strong storms here and there when all is said and done. Once any heat spell ensues, wet season follows, although there is no set rule I know of that says a heat spell has to occur at all. 3 years in a row there has been one though, lasting anywhere from 2 days to 5 days.

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