"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Continued Chance of Brief Heavy Showers / Lightning Hazards - Some Possibly Quite Strong

Early morning radar is shown . Showers/storms should move from the WSW to SW today around 15 mph toward the East Northeast (ENE).  Earlier onset toward the east coast once again, but timing will be everything again today. The later the onset, the stronger the storms can be ..with one big 'ouch' in the forecast per the RAP Model noted below
TODAY: More atmospheric moisture today than yesterday with another earlier onset of activity expected. Numerous small showers to develop mainly toward the west coast and spread eastward  accelerating along the west coast sea breeze front. With faster motion and plenty of instability today (more so than yesterday) some areas might experience rain more than once. The earlier the activity reaches the east coast , e.g. before 3pm, the lower chances of significantly stronger activity there will be.

The unusually amplified pattern of " trough eastern U.S. and ridge Western U.S."  (making for record highs in the Desert SW such as at Vegas and Needles where it reached 123F yesterday) will continue to amplify today. meaning the trough will be digging further south, and the ridge out west will expand northward will into Western Canada.

The RAP model suggests that as the upper trough digs to the west of Florida a bit of short wave trough at the low level will cross mainly the North Half of the state. In response, the surface winds near the east coast could back from SW toward to more of a southerly to SSE direction by early-mid afternoon.

As such, convergence at some localized eastern locations could result in strong storms with heavy downpours and wind gusts near 50 mph and frequent lightning, especially east of I-95 to the beach areas. There is no especially favored area, although there is a chance of the strongest storms occurring over the Panhandle to Northeast Florida. Latest RAP goes as far as showing a strong storm over Brevard by early afternoon. On the other hand, other models show no such backing of winds, and thus more of a generalized spread of showery activity much like yesterday.

MONDAY: This day still appears to be the most active day or similar to today (so far). Slish slosh and add some soap cycle.

TUESDAY: Another active day with a gradual pattern shift . Winds becoming more S-SSE paralleling the east coast while moisture depth continues with moderate instability. Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning still possible in bursts of heavy rainfall. Tuesday will have a different all around 'feel' to it than today and Monday.

WEDNESDAY: Can it drag on yet one more day? Maybe, but this particular wet pattern cycle will be nearing completion before we enter spin dry.

THURSDAY- Fourth of July: This appears to be the driest day of all through next weekend, with the majority of rainfall toward NW Florida and the Big Bend prior to the Final Rinse cycle.

BEYOND: The GFS and ECMWF are showing a resurgence of moisture from the ESE (East Southeast) as a tropical wave approaches the state , if not two smaller 'ripples'. In as such that the east coast could see earlier morning activity spreading west during the day, and perhaps on one day toward Saturday it won't make any difference what time of day it is that rainfall could be experienced. Rinse cycle begins Friday.

"Ocean showers" in the atmosphere being depicted can be surprisingly quite heavy with a brief period of wind gusts near 40 mph if this pattern does continue to emerge as guidance shows. After next weekend though, significant drying is shown with a down time after around the 10th of July statewide.

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