"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Warm One Last Day, The A "Week of Cool Returns"

Full "Latitudinal" Length Cold Front Continues to Sweep Across the United States this morning positioned along or near the Mississippi River. High pressure is building eastward from Texas but also from the Northern Rockies behind that boundary. Florida will mostly be effected by the circulation from Texas, and not so much from the "Far North"

TODAY: As mentioned in previous blogger posts, a long awaited frontal boundary who's timing was questionable is approaching Florida. Guidance has narrowed it down to around a 4 AM Central Florida Dividing Line time frame (pictured above), per the GFS which was correct all along  despite what the ECMWF and NAM guidance depicted. Prior to Frontal Passage (fropa), SSW-W winds today and highs right along A1A near 80F or upper 70Fs and warmer inland. Orlando tied a record high of 85F degrees yesterday dating as far back as 1917  for informational purposes, but not foreseeing (so far) much warmer if even that warm today. Suspect that the more southerly wind component will keep the outer barrier islands especially a tad cooler than was previously thought had the winds been more westerly and directly off land in that area.

Otherwise, very little if any rain is expected with the boundary; rain chances enter Central Florida around 2AM in more Northern areas and clear Exact Central by sunrise shifting south with time.
Clearing behind the boundary 'might' be a little slow from South Central to South Florida on Thursday  but from around Central Brevard toward Sarasota Line and north better clearing to scattered clouds working toward 'clear' could be experienced by noon time (if not a bit sooner). The next concern is 'how cold' will it get?

Expected frontal Position by Thursday night. NOTE that high pressure behind the boundary will be building across the Gulf RATHER THAN down from the north. This will prevent Florida from experiencing truly cold temperatures once again, since the air mass circulating into the state will be more of a 'modified continental air mass' rather than a 'direct shot from the North Pole" (as can occur some years)

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Expect daytime highs on Thursday not to rise much above the temperature right after 'fropa',  toward the lower to mid 60Fs Central and north. Overnight lows Thursday night into the 40Fs range, maybe some upper 30Fs far NW Central near Ocala, with the warmest from Canaveral and South along A1A seeing 47-53F range.

BEYOND: Two more fronts are expected to skirt by the state with re-enforcing high pressure from the west to west northwest. The next front can already be seen in the image above. We will not even know it when those fronts go by. The only effect will be that they will keep the winds backed to the NNW-N (thus, no modifying ocean wind) for quite some time. Another front is expected to follow due course early Sunday ..with similar results.

In abbreviated form, it could be 'typically cool' through next Wednesday, with coldest mornings just west of or partly into the Barrier Islands toward SW Florida into the Punta Gorda area. Other than today and tonight (when it could remain quite breezy)  after Thursday, winds will be a non-issue for the most part during this entire time frame, and high clouds are not seen so far to be a big issue either. Sum total, cool with some very pleasant days ahead but quite dry, especially north interior sections. No rain is foreseen as well until at least around mid-February. Overall, things look pretty much 'normal' for this time of year with highs in the 60Fs into brief shots of low 70Fs and lows generally in the 40Fs except at the beaches from Canaveral and South through the Keys, and by beaches this means A1A and east toward South Florida where US1 acts as a good substitute. For example, official observation stations at Ft Pierce and Vero often come in cooler to much cooler than Patrick Air Force Base further north since those observation stations are further from the beaches. For blogger purposes, Inland is considered 1/2- 1 mile or more west of the immediate sand dunes as opposed to TV Stations which might considered the beaches anywhere east of I-95.

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Monday, January 28, 2013

Warm Through Wednesday, Near Record Highs Possible

Mid Level moisture rotating around high pressure to the east of Florida could manifest as off and on clouds Central and North Florida throughout the day. Onshore wind at the east coast will keep temperatures within 1 mile of the beach a bit cooler
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Not much really to say for the next three days as high pressure slowly weakens with time as a frontal boundary taking shape over the Central Plains states will progress eastward with time. Easterly winds becoming progressively more southerly with some mid level moisture in place will allow temperatures to enter the lower 80Fs each day , mainly just away from the beaches. Overnight lows right at the beaches likely not to fall below 68F degrees from Port Canaveral and South, if not below even 70F.

Wednesday we could see some record highs as winds become more SSW-SW as front noses in from the west to WNW. Mid level moisture might also be carried off to the NE of the state. Timing on the front is still a bit sketchy, with entrance into Central Florida anywhere from near midnight Wednesday night to Thursday around late morning, thus timing will mean everything for Thursday's weather.

THURSDAY: Either way, we could see some showers after midnight Wednesday night into the sunrise period Thursday as clouds clear from north to south. If the NAM and the ECMWF model come closer to reality, clearing will be delayed Thursday into late day (at least). If the GFS verifies, clearing will reach Dead Central around late morning to noon time, but south of there will take until after dark Thursday evening.

FRIDAY-TUESDAY: The more certain outlook is for a return to cooler temperatures. As has been the case this winter (and most others), the warmest overnight lows will run from Cape Canaveral south along A1A toward US1 in South Florida and through the Keys each morning, so far perhaps not falling below 53F, whereas inland and toward the west and southwest Florida temperatures would vary through the 40Fs ranges. More notable will be cooler afternoon highs. The GFS is backing off now on how cool those highs will be, from cooler now to warmer. Predominately though, highs in the mid-upper 60Fs most locales except warmer south Florida. We could see a few days of only lower 60Fs though from Dead Central and north, especially on Friday. There is now forecast to be 2 more fronts after this upcoming front 2-3 days apart which would act to reinforce the air mass in place post-Wednesday. All in all though, temperatures running around normal to a few degrees above normal might be in the cards. Only rain chances so far appears to be Wednesday night through early to Mid Day Thursday depending on which model verifies. In short, no big weather disturbances to cause severe weather or very cold weather is foreseen.

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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

2 More Fronts then Consistently Warmer Next Week

Progressive Pattern with fronts forming near the Lee of the Northern Rockies and moving across the lower Great Lakes and Exiting off shore the Mid Atlantic to Northeast States . These will affect Florida with no sig weather anticipated but varying sky conditions and temperatures bobbing up and down within tolerable ('average') variability  
TODAY: Sunny and cool with quite the dry air mass over head. High pressure is situated in general as noted above in the image. A front is skirting by which will morph the high pressure area and shift winds a bit from day to day, but overall today and Thursday look similar, although a bit warmer on Thursday with highs today in the mid-upper 60Fs and mid to lower 40Fs tonight away from the beaches where they will be closer to 50-54F (warmer south).

FRIDAY: There will actually be two fronts to shimmy by, the next one is already showing up and a third is to follow which is not even in that image yet. All the fronts follow the same general track, with the impacts to Florida being a more westerly component to the winds just prior to the fronts, but quickly swinging to NE behind them.

 Cloudy conditions look to be in the cards from a variety of heights depending on which model one prefers, but it appears it could be the later half of Saturday (north half of sate) that could get cloudy, OR maybe Friday. But either way, rain chances on any day are very slim, but not impossible. Otherwise, we will some days with highs in the lower 70Fs statewide especially on Friday despite any clouds that might be present. All in all, half the weekend looks like it could be pretty nice except potential for cloud coverage this weekend but really to soon to say with great certainty since that has been changing from model run to model run.

NEXT WEEK: So far, the first several days of next week are looking very nice with consistent 70F degree readings in store, southerly winds, and warmer overnight lows. In all in all, up and down sky conditions through Sunday with varying morning lows most notable at the beaches dependent on if they morning wind is from the west (cooler) or east (warmer). It starts to get sticky in the forecast heading into the Thursday/Friday time frame though of next week, more than one week from today, so will leave that time frame open given guidance begins to flap around from run to run that far out in time like a towel to the wind.

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Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Dank Hanky Panky ;- ( at the Beaches, Warmer Elsewhere

Image for this afternoon shows that high pressure at the lower levels is building Southeastward from the Northern Plains as noted in yesterday post. The net affect will be to increase NE winds into the coast. Ocean temperatures off of Daytona are around 62F whereas near the Port of Canaveral they are 68F. 
TODAY: Slight increase in NE winds today could greatly alter the weather conditions from mainly the Eau Gallie Causeway and north, especially within 1 mile of the immediate coastline when/where winds will be blowing in off very cool ocean waters under a mostly veiled sky cut off from the afternoon sunshine.

This is not an unusual winter time (especially late winter) scenario.  Given the length of the season we are now into, the oceans are cooler. That coupled with abundant high clouds and possibly some lower clouds will hold down outside air temperatures, especially at the beaches. Further south, the wind will be progressively be blowing off warmer water. Looks like a classic 'cold air wedge' effect that has an affinity to wedge in on the Port Canaveral area toward the 520 and not so much toward Patrick Air Force Base.

Further south and inland temperatures will be warmer the further south one goes, but also those locations will not be privy to the direct effect of wind blowing off colder ocean waters. These conditions, coupled with lack of significant low level drying, could produce rather danky hanky panky. (I would have posted a hanky panky image , but...well, you know...) we'll settle with some 'weather nasty' instead. "brrrr for the beaches"

TONIGHT/NEXT FEW NIGHTS: A variation of the same theme for a few days (through Thursday) as wind decreases. There is a flip side to the story. Overnight lows will be colder inland, possibly falling into the mid-40Fs heading into Wednesday and Thursday nights, while the continued onshore gradient wind will keep the temperatures right along A1A in Brevard from barely falling after dark. Cooler further north though closer to high pressure that will be crossing eastward toward the Atlantic.

BEYOND: New scenario unfolds from Friday and beyond with highs well into the 70Fs and SW to west winds at times. Although another cool spell is in the cards, it is fairly short lived, and then followed by above average temperatures heading into late January and early February. Granted, that is still too far off to say with absolute assurance, that seems to be the going trend though.

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Monday, January 21, 2013

Partly to Mostly Clowny, Mixed Sun, Light Winds Continue

Lot's of Bozos and some Ronalds Today with a chance of Ringlings

The Reason for posting this image (reflective via the GFS (Global Forecast System) Model for today, is that this appears will be in  very general synoptic scale surface pattern terms, the trend through late this month. That is to say, high pressure centers continually building SE ward from the Upper Rockies with dynamics with frontal boundaries passing to the north of the state
TODAY: Light winds today and mostly cloudy to sometimes partly cloudy. A mix of sun and clouds, with clearing some areas while others not so much. It really is nearly impossible to say where and who will experience what. In general though, temperatures not far off from yesterday but with less wind this afternoon. Likewise, highs today in the low to mid 70Fs depending on cloud extent with a few light showers and sprinkles mainly south of I-4 are always possible. Lows tonight similar to last night.

TUESDAY: With winds already hedging on northerly, any frontal boundary to skirt on through will only re-enforce what is already in place and increase momentarily a rain chance. Some guidance is calling for showers on Friday or Saturday but that too could end up being a period of increased cloud coverage, and it is possible that even if it does rain it might be over-night. GFS has shifted gears pretty radically the past 48 hours in this regard. The main thing we'd probably all like to know is how much sun, how much wind, and how cold (or warm). 

WEDNESDAY: This seems to be the day going into Thursday where cloud coverage will be least extensive with temperatures cooler but not cold except away from the beaches earlier in the first half of the morning hours. Otherwise, highs in the mid to upper 60Fs for the most part and lows in the 40Fs Wednesday and Thursday. Latest guidance is showing that from Canaveral and South close to the beach we will not see one day getting below 50F degrees through the end of the month. That can be used at this point as a measuring stick for what to expect. In regard to clouds, if it is not lower clouds it's higher clouds. The periods of NO CLOUDS are few and far between but undoubtedly we will see them if but for 1/2 to most of a day here or there.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: A more definitive frontal boundary will be gliding by with more significant drying of the atmosphere, but that too is short lived with the greatest 'cold air impacts' restricted to west of the Banana or Indian Rivers. Drier air associated with that upcoming front last perhaps 36 hours before return on shore flow reverts conditions back to status quo.

In Summary: Although there are some changes in store, there is nothing significant in the upcoming week in regard to big rains or cold temperatures outside of what we've been experiencing the past 10 days. The trend continues until around the last 2 or 3 days of the month which is well beyond model reliability anyway. One could say, the point in making a blog post today is that there is no point in writing one when push comes to shove, other than to note that no big cold blasts or heavy storms are foreseen for quite some time in the current pattern (s) on tap. 

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Friday, January 18, 2013

Breezy Cool Showery Clouds Trickle In

Low topped clouds could thicken most (in general) after 5 or 6PM as sun angle lessens to result in potential small rain amounts east central from near dark and over night into early Saturday mainly from the Cape and south
TODAY: No surprises really. Winds to become more NE-ENE into tonight and lessen after sunset. As I type the breeze-gusts are just kicking in a notch. If so, that could be the harbinger of sprinkles and showers yet to fully manifest. More on that issue further down.

Deeper mid level moisture up to 5000 ft awaits with sprinkles and light showers possible as shown most any time as has already been witnessed and observed via official observations 'on the hour'. The immediate east coast is the warmest area in general likely in accounting for wind coming off of 68F degree ocean temperatures or slightly more. Thusly, the temperatures around the state are most warm near Canaveral and south despite the greater cloud coverage. Winds to slowly decrease going into Saturday night.  

TONIGHT: Consistency says, "Not much of a temperature change post - sunset immediately (as in A1A and east immediately) close to the beaches with lows never really lowering at all."  Thank you, Mr. Consistency. 

It might even warm a little over night from Ft. Pierce and south, but further north will have to wait until Saturday night into Sunday morning for that to occur. Best chance of showers from Canaveral or Mims and South, spreading toward some interior locations mainly Central Florida and parts of South Florida after dark through sunrise or mid morning Saturday, which shifts south with time.

SUNDAY: Shower chances reduced but a sprinkle is still possible near Canaveral with the better chances further south toward Ft Pierce to West Palm Beach. Highs upper 60Fs again , warmer from Ft. Pierce and south in to the lower 70Fs.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Lower winds yet still as a weak coastal inverted trough sets up as far north as the usual, Cape Canaveral. As such, this manifests as warming temperatures northward over night toward the Arm Pit of the Cape at the Port, possibly so that by sunrise morning beach side strollers will awaken to 70F degrees with clouds continuing to be somewhat of nuisance. 

MONDAY: Generally  'modes't weather but mid-cloud decks continue to skewer the skies per guidance at least per model depictions viz the mid-level moisture depictions.

TUESDAY: Guidance continues to point toward a refreshment of drier (and colder) air from the NW as high pressure builds eastward across the northern gulf and the Deep South States. Skies clearing finally by Wednesday or maybe even later Tuesday, but also comes the cooler air.  Unfortunately, guidance is also clinging to the bane of the times with Southern Branch Jet stream cirrus and cirrostratus clouds sweeping in at some point on Wednesday post dry air at the low levels intrusion, so if it's not lower clouds, it's higher ones being the gist of the matter. That, combined with cooler highs in the mid-upper 60Fs (possibly lower 70Fs further south).

Modifying conditions with higher clouds being an issue possible until late next week with a big warm up preceding the next frontal boundary, at which point we could get a repeat performance of recent times..that is, today. All in all though, unusually cold air is not nowhere, nohow to be seen, so far.  Possible big but brief weather event is showing up around the last 2 days of the month such as a possible squall line, but too soon to say at this point.

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Thursday, January 17, 2013

"End Times" Front Crosses Florida - Prepare Now, or Else!

It's the End of the Awesome Weather Across
Florida As We Knew it as of


TODAY: Clouds have entered the grisly scene as a frontal boundary marches  troops of clouds and weapons of wind, sprinkles : armed with intrepidly cold air : sweeps the landscape (as noted in the aerial battle plan below) (note, top image  is the impact near Pensacola, which can be seen from aloft in this image blow)

TONIGHT: Winds becoming W-WNW-NW at 15-28mph with some higher gusts earlier in the evening,  with the biggest temperature drop between 4pm -8pm. The immediate coast from near Cape Canaveral south could be close to 50F (or fall about 25-30F degrees since early this afternoon by that time). Colder of course further north and warmer south.  It will remain cloudy well 
in to the night.

2:30pm Front Position

FRIDAY: Cold in comparison to recent days, but like all "End of The World" Fronts this one too will prove to appear with a Boy Who Cried Wolf Bark worse than its chilly bite.  Morning lows near 48F on the A1A strip plus or minus 2-3F degrees from Port Canaveral and South but much colder north and especially across interior portions of North Central where they could drop into the upper 30Fs, with continued breezy conditions.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: So far, timing is almost perfect for winds to circulate around to the NE in sync with the sun having been up after about 4-5 hours of 'heating' above the cloud decks to manifest a deck of offshore moving stratocumulus clouds with light sprinkles possible along the coast of East Central east of I-95. The good thing about this is that beach side temperatures will rise toward the lower to mid-60Fs at that time as well, but inland temperatures could remain a bit cooler. Winds will begin to die down, especially after sunset toward midnight Friday evening.

BEYOND: Not much to say for the weekend. Overnight beach side A1A will see lows near 62F-65F all weekend with the shower sprinkle chances ending as winds become much lighter. Highs in the lower 70Fs possible by Sunday (mainly South and parts of South Central). The only proverbial flies in the 'anointment' will be the chance of Southern Branch Jet Stream Cirrus Clouds streaming overhead a majority of the time into early to mid range next week.  

In short, a return to near to normal seasonal temperatures, with clouds being the core issue in the afternoons through Tuesday or Wednesday at least.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Beautiful Today - Much Cooler Friday/Early Next Week

Today through Thursday Sunset As The Cold Intruder Crosses the State to the Straits

THURSDAY: Cold front will be crossing the state, passing through Central between 4 -6pm and continuing toward the Straits before midnight. NW wind of 18-24mph for a time behind the boundary and much cooler to cold with Central's lows in the upper 30Fs to lower-mid 40Fs; 50Fs far South Florida. There is a chance of increasing cloud cover state wide from late morning southward into mid afternoon and very light rainfall could occur from this cloud cover, but highs could still get into the mid-upper 70Fs south of I-4 prior to frontal passage. 

FRIDAY: Cold in the morning as noted, with modifying conditions first along the east coast. Winds becoming north to north-northeast by early afternoon with increasing lower stratocumulus clouds advecting back on shore as they become NNE-NE and thicken a bit.  

The mid-level trough lags well behind the surface front, and could act as a catalyst for light, low topped spits or sprinkles, especially east of I-95 or US1 with clouds working west of I-95 by mid-late afternoon Friday as it stretches out across Central or South Central, especially near the east coast. Highs in the lower mid 60Fs, especially near the coast toward sunset as winds become more ENE off the warmer (if one could say 'warm' , waters of the Atlantic)

SATURDAY: Little if any temperature drop from the Cape and South close to the ocean over night Friday night with clouds potentially remaining; high clouds could be in the cards as well associated with the jet stream. Highs in the mid to upper 60Fs (especially South Central/South with a few low 70Fs ). Rain drip chances dwindling from the Cape to the South, but SE Florida may see another day of them.

SUNDAY: Recovering to some degree with near 70Fs from the Central Dividing line and South. Lows Sunday morning in the low - mid 60Fs east of US1 to A1A but much cooler further inland toward the west side of the state. Highs near 70F.

MONDAY: Similar to Sunday, as yet another mid-level boundary and surface reflection back the wind to NW-NNW and bring in more cold air TUESDAY through THURSDAY morning.

High clouds could be in the picture as well at least the first 3-4 days of next week, so not expecting to see much in temperatures above the upper 60Fs, rain free.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Continued "Warm" Through Thursday -Then Closer to "Normal"

Other than some pesky early day low clouds and a few patches of offshore clouds / light showers moving toward the coast as noted above, today looks like a repeat performance of Monday (So too on Wednesday)
TODAY: Morning KSC sounding shows a strong cap around 5000 feet again today with moisture at or below that level above which the atmosphere is primarily dry. Thus, satellite imagery correspondingly shows little in high clouds but rather the patches of stratocumulus clouds and a few showers locked below that capping inversion level.  If today is anything like yesterday, most areas north of the Indian River County line should dry out  but further south a few locations could see more clouds outside of low topped cumulus clouds in land away from the subsidence of cool area associated with the east coast sea breeze.

Highs today near the immediate beaches just below 80F and in the low 80Fs inland of the waterways (by not far) especially in areas that are most free of cloud coverage.

A Rare Mid-January Cape Canaveral Beach  Splish Splash  on Monday

WEDNESDAY: Outside of the chance of a similar of sorts scenario materializing over the course of the next 24 hours, little change in store .

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary associated with the huge jet stream streak and trough that has plagued the Western states north of it with cold air will be moving across the Mississippi River Valley region with the tail end of the jet streak preparing to pull out toward the east coast north of Florida as a cold front works into Central Florida after sunset. 

SW wind ahead of the front and a bit warmer, although some afternoon clouds and a few light showers are possible, especially along and north of I-4. With frontal passage sometime after 7pm south of I-4 after dark cold upon which air advection commences and the Party of Above Normal Temperatures  ends for quite some time to come.

FRIDAY: This day appears will be the over all coolest day in the next week for Central and South Florida. Low pressure (although weak) is anticipated to form along the boundary close to Cape Canaveral or just off shore with any wrap around moisture impacting mostly the area north of SR 46 in far North Brevard potentially generating showers and greater cloud coverage toward the east side of the state into Volusia County and mainly North Brevard. Elsewhere  it appears conditions could be partly cloudy to even clear as winds come onshore late Friday into early Saturday post sunset. Thus, coastal temperatures could be warmer near the beaches Saturday morning than on Friday morning.

BEYOND: A few more weak fronts could be sliding through in the next 7-10 days which will act to mainly exasperate a steady state of temperatures in the low to mid 40Fs inland and low to mid-50s right at the beaches south of I-4 or even SR 528. The further south one progresses  the warmer it becomes. Highs most days generally in the mid to upper 60Fs for quite some time. The overall picture seems that overnight lows will be a tad above normal (in general), but after noon highs a bit below with periods of high clouds becoming more likely. No freezing temperatures are foreseen except perhaps more toward I-10 toward Gainesville on a few occasions. 

 Oh Christmas Trees We Bid Farewell


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Saturday, January 12, 2013

Temperatures to Continue Above Normal Through Wednesday

Sunrise at Cape Canaveral, Florida in January (70F Degrees at time)
TODAY: Not much of a change locally within our current local and large-scale (synoptic) pattern. Closer investigation of model guidance, latest hourly surface observations,  and the KSC morning sounding at 6AM shows a low level high pressure centered well to the east of the state with the ridge axis  stretching westward across Central Florida. In the mid-levels the high pressure center (aloft) is only about 100-200 miles east of the state. This set up is making for ESE winds (light) at the lowest atmospheric level, then veering more from the south at about 5000 through 18,000 ft above those low level winds. 

Also shown is two inversions with each ridge axis. One caps off a very shallow deck of only about 200-400ft  above the ground making for fog (some fairly dense) nearest the ridge axis (Central Florida); the latter inversion is associated with the mid level ridge axis around 4700 ft. Above that level it is quite dry. Very little change in this particular set up is foreseen through Tuesday.

THUS: Some fog this morning, with rapid clearing by 8AM- 10AM. Highs similar to yesterday . There is a chance of patches of stratocumulus cloud decks appearing and disappearing in random fashion along that 5100 ft inversion located underneath the mid-level ridge axis near 11,000 ft from moisture trapped below either of those levels, especially after the fog burns off and re-materializes as a cloud deck aloft.  Otherwise, temperatures continuing to run about 7 - 14   degrees above normal with warmest overnight lows along the outer barrier islands, being surrounded by bodies of water on all sides.

The only change to occur into Wednesday will be cooler morning lows, especially along the East side of the state as low level winds begin to acquire a Southwest component (particularly Monday - Wednesday mornings); likewise, this will allow afternoon highs to become warmer in those same locations with less chance of a sea breeze (especially Tuesday and Wednesday) outside of any cloud patches that could develop.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: Around the 17th now as when a front that continuously is being re-enforced but blocked from Florida because of the high pressure centers east of the state will finally begin to slide south. Guidance is split on whether that will occur on Wednesday night or a few days later. Most offices (official forecast offices) are siding with the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame, but will hold back in this post from being sold just yet (as they have also alluded to). The GFS has been doing pretty good this winter in the 6-10 day time frame. Either way though, not much precipitation if any is anticipated with the front as most of the energy associated with it will have ejected into the Northeast States before the front gets here. 

Since the Jet Stream remains north of I-10, the boundary will again like those of recent fronts be shallow. North winds though could advect cooler air in with mid-upper 50Fs for lows and highs in the 60Fs (Central and warmer South) for several days under high level cirrus clouds.

Hibiscus Petaled in Morning Dew

BEYOND THE BEYOND: As has been the GFS trend, heading out into untrustworthy territory time, the greater beyond shows a cold spell approaching toward the 22nd; however, the GFS bounces back and forth and all around with this scenario and has been doing so all winter in the long range (case in point, a few weeks ago it was forecasting it to be quite cold around the 18th with highs in the 40Fs and 50Fs).

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Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Warmer toward 80F next 10 Days as Frosty Gets the Boot

High clouds will be mostly streaming off to the east today, as low level moisture remains ample in the presence of a near shore coastal trough. The surface front that passed through two days ago is about all but absorbed by the high pressure off to the east of the state. Purple shows zones of isolated rain shower chances about any time, if they can move on shore as they are near West Palm Beach at this time.
TODAY: No more high clouds are foreseen to the west of the state as what is overhead some areas should be clearing out today, but low to mid-level moisture remains sufficient for yet another day or two of cloud cover to materialize around early to mid afternoon. Convergence along a coastal trough accompanied by instability (which is more pronounced in the south half of Florida than anywhere else in the country today but maybe the south tip of Texas)...might provide the fodder for showers. Whether they come ashore north of Ft Pierce is a different matter though, but best not to  "toss the rain-shower chance baby out with the atmospheric bath water"   from all appearances based on steering up through 10,000 ft from the SE before they winds well aloft become SW per the KSC sounding and latest Rapid Refresh model guidance.

Temperatures today and beyond for quite some time will nearly remain in the 70Fs 24/7 right at the beaches to near 82F in the afternoons (especially south of Ft Pierce beaches) and inland south of Orlando region. Warmest interior west side of the state.

WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Guidance is consistent with drier air in the mid-levels to move north ward from the south to southeast Wednesday morning with the drier air reaching Central around 12-4pm, which means less chances of not only high clouds but also mid-level clouds, aka, generally even more sunny. 

Although a stray, light coastal shower is possible in the wee hours before sunrise, it will be other-weather-wise much more sunny in the afternoons with perhaps some inland fog or low clouds early day given the moist low levels and time of year. Winds to remain ESE-SE for quite some time to come with temperatures well above average through January 16th.

Global Forecast System (GFS) long range model guidance is consistent now with a frontal passage on the 17th which could be the harbinger of an entirely new 'pattern' from the one we are just entering today. 

Whether that holds to form or not is too soon to say. One more day or two of consistent model runs will tell the story. If this verifies, we'll fall back to a pattern similar to earlier cool periods, but nothing drastic such as freezing temperatures has been alluded to.

 Entering in toward late January  or early February, if the jet stream trend on the GFS also continues, might need to be monitoring for severe type weather potential rearing its head, but until that time (if ever), looks like smooth sailing and great January weather as we approach the coldest time of year , one month after the winter solstice

"Hey bud, your block my rays"

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Sunday, January 6, 2013

After Tonight - Tuesday, Above Average Temperatures into Mid-Month!

Ref. Captions: Variable conditions namely along  lines bounded by 'green' (above) from 2pm today toward sunrise Monday as pockets of 'energy' (red "x" s) move across the state from west to east and depart by morning 
TODAY: Warm front as vaguely materialize prior to sunrise resulting in pockets of fog and low clouds, with visibility general;y in the 1/4 to 1/2 mile range across much of Central Florida at 7AM. Per analysis, this somewhat of a 'faux warm front' is located near the surface across to north of the Beach Line, yet higher above ground it is much further north as circulation around high pressure to the east and across South Florida lifts it north as an approaching series of 'short wave disturbances/perturbations' in the flow yet higher above the ground from 5000 - 20,000 feet approach the state from the west south west. The net effect is not unlike two children with other ends of a 20 foot long  jump rope, with one waving his side upward sending a ripple effect to the child holding the other end of the rope 20 feet away.  (see the red "x" s)..those are the 'ripples' in the rope that are approaching.

""..... this "somewhat of a 'faux warm front' " is located near the surface across to north of the Beach Line, yet higher above ground it is much further north ""
LATER TODAY: Clearing and warmer by late morning, mainly south of the surface boundary. Muggy, with light southerly component winds developing. Instability will exist, but it is quite meager with Convective Instability (surface based, less than 1000 and Lifted Indices only perhaps -2C (compared to 5000 and -6 to -8 in the summer, for example). However, we could hear some rumbles or merely showers as shown in the orange parameters in the top image as a baseline, but not necessarily all inclusive (if at all) after 2pm - 6pm). Isolated if at all.

TONIGHT: Otherwise, as the disturbances/ripples/ "red x's" approach expect increasing clouds to move in and/or simply ''materialize out of thin air' after 2:00PM in various locations. Increasing clouds after 5 or 6pm ...with the best chance of over night rains co-existing along the surface (red) warm front as noted by the yellow bounds shown in the first image above. Some 'elevated thunder possible', that to cloud or in-cloud lightning strikes, but cloud to ground lightning does not look likely (yet).

MONDAY: Most, if not all activity, moving off shore by sunrise if not sooner, with winds becoming ENE. There could still be some cloudy conditions across the state on Monday, with cooler temperatures as a result thereof, as well as a chance of showers south of I-4 toward the east coast side from Daytona to Ft Lauderdale in the somewhat still moist easterly flow, since there really is no frontal passage ,..but a very shallow one at best (like the previous boundary).

TUESDAY: High pressure building southward from the NE Atlantic States will increase easterly flow toward the east to east-south-east  direction through the end of the upcoming week. Better drying anticipated by Wednesday, January 9, with warmest temperatures away from the immediate east coast, especially toward the Western Interior sectors near 80F. This, in sharp contrast to 3  years ago,  when there was several bouts of sleet in some locations on this same date with highs around 39F. 

BEYOND: Nary a whimper of cold on the horizon until at least around January 18th (so far). We are entering the climato-'logically' (sort of an oxymoron isn't it?) coldest period of Central and South Florida though from Mid-January through the first week of February. So far, and cold spell (per se) is not shown to even come close to what has already been experienced, nor and if even so, last more than 24 hours. 

Interestingly, I just did a search on "oxymoron" in Google and the top choice was "The Orlando Sentinel". Oxymoron sort of is an oxymoron in itself, lacking oxygen to the brain.

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Friday, January 4, 2013

Cloudy and Dank Most of the Day, Possibly Saturday as Well

Not too much to say. Looks like we are pretty socked in today except far South Florida. The frontal boundary to the south should lift north to Central and meander north south but never really lift far enough north to clear us out entirely until possibly Sunday or Monday. Under the clouds with lower sun angle  temperatures will vary little, with coldest air along and north of I-4 toward South Tampa Bay and warmest at the immediate beaches from the Cape South and across South Florida near and South of Lake Okeechobee.

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