"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Best Chance of Thunder Today North of Vero on East Coast and Across I-10 Corridor

The 'Proverb'ial  Blog See Text is captured above, but there is caveates in the forecast given reasons cited in today's writing
TODAY: Plus factors, instability is mounting so far early afternoon across much of the state. Mainly all of Central- sufficient for strong storms, with colder air aloft and surface based instability up through the mid-levels. Best surface, mixed layer, and normalized convective instability (CAPE) is from near or just north of Vero Beach and north toward Ormond by the Sea.  Best upper level divergence so far is near New Smyrna South toward Vero. Not quite the overlap, but dead east central meets the cross hairs and fits the ticket price. 

Problems:  high clouds., undirectional wind directions and zero sea breeze , resulting in lack of a focusing mechanism for surface based initiation of storm.

Interesting though, the RAP model on the best site for getting into the finer details is DOWN..but earlier runs favored South Florida before sunrise. However, it appears things might have flipped flopped with the north half favored instead due to the continuance of high clouds cutting off the heat engine over the south. Moisture is greater in the South, but it is due to High level moisture more so than at the levels for storm bodies. Latest guidance in use for this post shows the best low and mid level moisture is Dead Central Dividing Line and north/south about 55 miles either way at least..with energy in the wind fields inter-dispersed hither and yon depending on what hour one prefers to utilize through sunset. Oops.

All things given, it would be negligent not to mention the possibility of strong thunderstorms (but isolated) in the areas noted, or close to them, in orange and red. These could start after 1pm through dark, off and on, with no apparent rhyme or reason other than that those already cited, favorable conditions, already exist; and the lifted condensation levels are low enough per the NAMcast for those stronger chances after 3:30pm. Could be big changes in short-term guidance as 2-3pm rolls around, so will go out on the fragile forecast limb and at least lay some cards out, just in case.

Otherwise, fast moving showers are spotty but have some gizmo already. There we have it already as I just looked for the first time. Showers appearing in the most unstable area. BUT, will high clouds put the lid on activity going into mid afternoon Xing out Central for storm chances? Only the Secret Eight Ball knows, the secret meaning.

WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: Back to square one, Sunday's Post. Chances again for storms. Earlier NAM and to some degree the GFS showed the best chances of rain Wednesday could befall from mid morning through late day, mainly Central zones and into the South..some strong. With a high cloud deck at night, some of the heat of the day will be retained, thus allowing for earlier shower and storm starts.  Beyond Wednesday and the vast number of variables involved between now and then through Friday..will need to cover each day on a case by case basis. Suspect future posts will retain this flavor though, with some bitters in there leaving the ever present question, " Will it or won't it do whatever or not on my parade?"

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