"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Chance of an Isolated Stronger Storm Today, Rain Chance Thru Saturday

"Banana River Storm along the Eastern Shores - Cape Canaveral, Florida"
TODAY: Some minor differences from the past few days with,  as always, a few hiccups between model guidance both between models and individual runs within any given model (in regard to the short term).

Rather than spending too much time with nit-picking details that likely will never materialize anyway, the only thing that stands out different today from the past two days is that both the NAM (which I rarely rely on any more) and also the short term RAP model runs are showing stronger upward vertical velocities along the east coast from Brevard south to St. Lucie Counties with a bullseye over Central to Southern Brevard county, at least as of 11AM. 

The proverbial " fly in the ointment " is that this occurs too early in the day, and ends up amounting to nothing when otherwise it could indicate the better chance for a  "near severe" (storm) or two. But, given those are rather recent depictions, the blog post includes to highlight that region as 'possible strong storms' for that reason and that reason only. There was a recorded gust of 72 m.p.h. yesterday by the Haulover canal on the north side of  no-man's land Kennedy Space Center just as a side note.. otherwise, gusts were in the 40 mph range with most storms which really isn't all that unusual for a thunderstorm.  

Also in looking outside, it's clear we are once again contending with a con- factor of high thin clouds over north and central Florida from time to time; but for parts of Central it might prove to be irrelevant, since low levels winds will advect heat and instability from the more cloud free skies over Southern Florida, as they blow from the SW-SSW into Central Florida underneath the thin , high canopy. 

In general , a sea breeze will again form but be more 'side-shore' and closer to the coast than the past two days (I suspect),  which would mean the stronger activity might occur further east today .  

COULD BE WORSE. Images below were posted to TWITTER and FACEBOOK showing the storm that generated the EF-4 Rated Tornado the other day in Mississippi. 

Could be some lingering activity beyond 9pm along the east coast from Brevard  and/or  Indian River Counties tonight in the form of light rain as was the case the past 2 evenings. 

"Suspect Area -51" in purple.
Otherwise some storms with the main hazard being lightning 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Frontal boundary across North Florida today will be located tomorrow across North Central to Central Florida and remain in the area around I-4 tomorrow and perhaps further south on Saturday. Increasing cloudiness and showery activity is possible with some heavy rainfall possible on Saturday  I-4 toward the Beach Line Zone. 

So far, Saturday seems to be the least decent day due to either increased rain chances and/or cloud cover, but quickly improving conditions will manifest on Sunday as the front clears to the south and the atmosphere dries out significantly. Our  few days recently of 75F dew points appears to be coming to an end shortly.

After Saturday, rain chances are zero for quite a few number of days ahead.

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