"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 6, 2019

Rare July Pattern in Place Tomorrow through Next Weekend

Small  Sunrise 'Cloud Line' Friday Morning at The Cocoa Beach Pier Produced a Funnel Cloud 
Barely Visible In This Image, A Funnel Emerges to the Right of the Pier
TODAY: The post this morning will speak in  'broad and general' ways as upcoming days will vary in slight ways, likely each having  a 'flavor of it's own' but all occurring within a larger scope (the synoptic scale overall pattern). 

Briefly though, a good coverage of showers and storms today, with some able to go up along both sea breezes east and west coast earlier in the day. Best convergence appears will be somewhere favoring the Eastern Interior portion of the state with outflow activity possibly working back over the beaches at some 'favored area' by late afternoon or early evening. So far that 'potential' might exist for either Brevard and/or Volusia county. Some one might see upward  of 2" of rain just today over the interior .

To point back to the Blog Title, a rare set up is for all purposes to be in-development today through Sunday. Upper level energy which yesterday was over West Central Missouri is dropping southeast toward Florida and combining with 'energy' (vorticity) from other sources to result in a broad, mid-level   cyclonic circulatory pattern over the Deep Southeast (that being, 'counter-clockwise) with Florida being at the Six- O'Clock position of lower to mid level winds flowing in a backward or 'counter-clockwise' way. 

That means SW winds surface through mid levels. This circulation will be fueled by energy in combination with the diurnal sea breeze circulations in the midst of rather unusually Deep Atmospheric moisture characterized by precipitable water (PWAT) values on a consistent basis for a string of days between 1.85 - 2.40" at times. This compares to winter values which run around 1/2 inch (as a point of reference). 

It's not that such values are overly  extreme (for Florida) but that it's the duration for how long this will last, combined with the fact we will have 'energy' aloft which can work with that moisture. 
The situation this time of year is that often there is plenty of moisture but no energy to work with it. Not so this time.

 The other and most 'rare' aspect to this particular upcoming situation (synoptic scale pattern) is the length of consecutive days we will be at that 'six-o'clock position' and/or south of the Atlantic Ridge Axis each of which results in Southwest Flow aloft either way.  The winds aloft dictate to a large degree the overall direction of storm motion.

 The 'unusual' aspect  is that usually there is almost no steering at all or more often from the east to west to favor the west coast this time of year, not deep southwest flow aloft for a solid week (at least, if not for 10 days).

But not so tomorrow through to potentially next weekend. Additionally, it does not appear that for at least a large portion of the time these winds will be strong enough to offset/counterbalance the daily sea breeze circulations, other than to bring the west coast sea breeze across to the east coast on some days faster than others and leave the east coast sea breeze very close to the east coast.

Net effect is plenty of opportunities for rainfall, at almost any time, but mainly for late morning through mid-evening, but varying in how and why that will be so on a daily basis.

It does look like there could be several 'early onset days' ahead, with activity already off the west or even the east coast prior to even sunrise  with  the west coast activity spreading ashore and then working eastward from early morning to early afternoon. 

Some days might see the main 'storm show' by noon time   leaving cloudy skies in their wake, and maybe even re-development prior to nightfall . 

Storm motion will not be particularity fast either, so with all these days ahead of rainfall (not everywhere all the time) but with these 'chances' so many days, there is a risk of 'flooding' in those urban areas most prone to it.

The biggest risk sum total will be as always, lightning. 

With  also lighter winds aloft and deeper moisture, we might start hearing of funnel clouds or waterspouts as well prior to mid-next week when winds might get a bit stronger in the mid levels.

That's about all there is to say in those regards other than to mention the TROPICS. 

The media outlets and some 'unofficial sources' are starting to extend their prophetically inclined high-amp anxiety riddled speculations into the mix, and it's all a waste of time at this point.

 There is no agreement that such a threat exists , and if so, the region that might be affected at this point would not be in danger of anything other than more rain (at this point). 

There is no model as of this morning showing much of anything other than a weak depression coming ashore the Northern Gulf Coast  states. That is not to say , however, that that 'will be' the case or that there 'will be' any thing at all (!).

 BUT, there could be..and so what's new? That sources want to draw attention to themselves for financial reasons or to be 'the one to be able to say, "See I told you so".

  Just a word  not to latch on to such speculations for whatever reason only to have them vanish within 24 hours anyway. If on the east coast of Florida, no impacts in those regards until further notice.

The other impact for Florida and most disastrous? Lack of Sunny Skies and good beach time!

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Monday, July 1, 2019

Chance of Lightning Storms Mainly Portions of East Central

Thunderstorm Moves East Across  the Banana River, Merritt Island Yesterday (June 30)
TODAY: Different day  from yesterday  ... in location of the best available moisture for storms, 'the direction of storm motion, and 'potential storm strength'.

Wind aloft in all steering levels has become northwesterly, whereas surface winds remain light. Looks like the pressure gradient up through 2000 feet will remain light enough for the diurnal sea breeze circulations to set up, but be a bit delayed in some locations on the east coast  and not make it too far inland from that coast as well. 

On the other-hand, the west coast sea breeze boundary will have no problem with being established and making its eastward journey once day time heating gets firmly established and the land mass starts to heat up. Today, that should happen fairly evenly in the absence of significant cloud coverage anywhere.

Best moisture is showing up to be across mainly peninsular North and North Central Florida earlier in the day to continue to work east and south during the day mainly down the eastern half of the state.

Activity could go up along either sea breeze boundary but be less than 'spectacular' earlier in the day.  With that said, showers and some storms could arise toward the spine of the state earlier in the afternoon as the west coast boundary moves east and south (from the NW)..apparent motion might be east at times along the boundary itself until later in the day when storms reach higher heights and fully latch on to the prevailing NWesterlies aloft.

The largest amassing of showers/storms/cloud coverage looks like it might be mainly near SR 50 and south near I-95 to US1 from Titusville south to Fort Pierce, with the Fort Pierce and south areas getting their greatest influx latest as outflows from activity further north are accelerated southward. How far south storms might be able to manifest is in question, however. For example, will West Palm get in on it, or Ft Lauder dale (going toward dark). Hard to say.

Temperatures aloft today are not all that cold but convergence of boundaries along  a somewhat potentially opposing sea breeze(from the east south east) with outflows from the north (esp. late if it starts to become more southerly as often occurs with time) might result in some 'good poppers'.

 Net effect, some stronger storms might be able to manifest from Merritt Island south toward Indian River or even St. Lucie County just inland from the immediate coast.

TUESDAY: Same overall scheme of things but with more moisture availability, so we could see even greater coverage. Not sure the winds aloft will have as much as a westerly steering component tomorrow so despite higher coverage, the immediate coasts might 'steer clear' of actual rainfall (but not cloud coverage).

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Sort of iffy for Wednesday. The latest NAM wants to keep up the moisture content while the GFS was shutting it off. Regardless, we start to lose steering and what does evolve ends up favoring tWEEKEND-NEXT WEEK: A pattern change during Mid-Week next week is being indicated. That would be a pattern that would favor the west coast but rather dry, to a much more moisture laden atmosphere with steering favoring East Side come Saturday as a larger scale upper level trough attempts to deepen down the eastern U.S.
he west side of the state.

 All in all, the period from Late Sunday through next Thursday looks to be rather 'wet', at least on paper. Whether this will end up being 'too much cloud coverage' or actual storms, will be another story for another day.

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