"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Pristine Today - Gone Tomorrow

(Images depict current position of yesterday's front and the latest KSC Sounding)

I drove down to S. Cocoa Beach this morning to see if any 'devastation' could be detected from yesterday's tornado. Other than lots of branches strewn across A1A..none could be seen although I know of the storm reports from the news and the paper. Windows broken and roof damage..resulting in lots of leaky ceilings inside some apartment units.

Did you get your electric bill yet? Wow, for the folks reading from Florida, FPL provided a very generous rebate. My bill was literally HALF of what it would have been otherwise and ended up lower than the previous month. What a treat!..I'd been dreading that one for a while...AND...

What a difference a day makes, huh? You'd never know that there was a tornado from Viera to S. Cocoa Beach yesterday morning by looking out there now. As of 11am the temperature was 70 degrees, but under such primo sunshine and light winds it feels much warmer. The frontal system that generated all of yesterday's havoc is now laying dormant across extreme South Florida (as shown) and high pressure is affixed across the peninsula. There is a pretty good cloud cover down there associated with it, but you'd never now it up here (further north). I've attached the KSC sounding to show how shallow of a layer, close to the ground, that our light east winds exist. As you can see one only has to go up about 2500 ft to encounter the westerlies which increase with height. Any moisture also resides only below the westerlies where the atmosphere then dries out significantly over this 'cap'. Such will be the course for the day...enjoy!

Today: Light east winds earlier today will likely increase somewhat by mid-afternoon as full sunshine heats the landmass. With the land heating up and 57 degree waters residing just offshore it is likely that the easterly wind will increase a bit and advect some of the cooler air residing just above those cold ocean waters into the immediate coast. This scenario was spelled out both in Thursday's and Friday's posts...and see no reason to deviate from that train of thought. The result? Well, as warm as it feels out there right now it's a tough call,...but I do believe that the east wind will increase enough to cool down the immediate coast...almost to the point of 'significantly" by late afternoon. The temperature will spike by 1:30pm at the time of max heating..then within an hour after that will fall back down to around 68 degrees or by the 3-4pm time frame. However, further west...west of the Banana River, the cooling affect will have little impact if any. Thus, folks located west of the Banana River in Merritt Island and especially west of the Indian River will bask it ignorant bliss as to what is transpiring along the A1A corridor in mid 70 degree air. The sky, however, will remain essentially clear for the majority of the day.

There is some concern that along with the cooling breeze that some low level clouds will that by late afternoon toward sunset not only will the sun be getting blocked, but we'll have a cool wind. But for the most part it currently appears this impact (if it even materializes, will be minimal). It's just too try aloft right now, and the moist layer underneath those westerlies is so shallow that there might not be enough 'depth in the moisture' to generate clouds.

Tonight into Tomorrow Morning: A very mild night in store. During the course of the night the east wind will begin to veer from easterly to more southeasterly and eventually southerly by daybreak. If the wind remains light enough fog could be a big concern for folks along either bank of the Indian River and points west. But at this time it looks like it would be of minimal impact. In any case, even if it does form it will be quick to dissipate as the southerly wind increases after daybreak. Regardless, clouds will be on the increase in advance of the next front as well as along the retreating stationary front now across South Florida which will have rapidly lifted north as a warm front and essentially lost all identity (even as a warm front). Not expecting any appreciable rain chances as the front lifts north..but a brief period of showers, especially along the coast, is not totally out of the equation. We'll give that possibility about a 2 in 10 chance of actually happening as clouds will also be on the increase.

Majority of Sunday: Think Thursday. Remember what that was like? It was generally cloudy with a good S-SSW wind and nicely warm. Such will be the case on Sunday. There will be a continued chance of rain showers, mostly over the eastern 1/4 of the peninsula, but I believe that any rain that does manage to get squeezed out will be shimmied to the east and remain off the coast. We'll warm into the upper 70s all areas, with the warmest of spots in the state right along East Central Florida and then along the rest of the southern 1/4 of the peninsula. Such is the case with a SW wind...where the air is blowing across the most available landmass possible.

Sunday Night into Monday Morning: A super mild night in store. I'd be surprised to see the low get below 67 degrees, if even. But daybreak will yield to a good SSW wind under cloudy skies with rain chances knocking on the door. It is quite possible that a squall line will have formed overnight...if not sooner..and will be steadily marching in this direction. At this time it appears that this 'boundary' will be nearly superimposed along with the incoming cold front rather than as a prefrontal trough...Timing as to its crossing is EXTREMELY sketchy at this time. Forecast models are varying from 6-12 hours as to just exactly WHEN the boundary will cross. It definitely will have passed by 8pm Monday evening...but it could cross East Central Florida anywhere between 10am-6pm.
So despite what you might be hearing over the air waves...timing is sketchy. Note that they don't provide a specific time as to when the 'weather' will occur?! Oh the joys of an unofficial blog...where I can make these little factoids known.
The further west and north one goes the earlier it will pass. There could very well be severe weather along the line, but at this time it appears that chance will be limited to an East/West line running from the Volusia/Brevard County line due west to Florida's West Coast and points north. As with this last system...I'll be closely monitoring the situation since the last one had a few unexpected punches to pull. There definitely appears that there will be ample shear and helicity for storms to approach severe limits just to the north...but a lack of instability and a weakness in lapse rates (which won't have as much time to recover as they did with yesterday's slower moving system) should, for the most part, preclude a repeat event. As a result, the 'squall line' if you could still call it that by the time it gets here, might only cross the area as an apparent line of rain showers with maybe some thunder audible. AGAIN...this needs to be monitored closely seeing as how we'll again be right on the cusp of what will likely be occurring just to our north. Folks living north of the I-4 corridor will be especially vulnerable to a quick severe weather event as the line races rapidly east during it's brief visit to the peninsular part of the state.

Monday Night - All of Thursday: Dry and very cool sums it up. Lows in the mid-50s along the coast and mid-upper 40s west of the Banana River. Tuesday will be the 'coldest' where some locales could approach the lower 40s; however, along the immediate A1A corridor we could be a good 10-12 degrees warmer. See, 57 degree water just offshore is relatively warm when compared to low 40s where the land can cool much more effectively..and that will be the saving grace along A1A. But Tuesday and Wednesday all in all will warm into the mid-upper 60s under generous sunshine. So it will be pleasant, especially during the peak heating hours of 11:30am - 2:30pm.

Beyond: Might want to have the heavy coat at hand (hope it's not in storage). The next system to affect us will be overnight Friday into Saturday morning. And this one will likely cool us off even more than the one moving in on Monday. But not down to freezing...just another shot of very cool air. Spring has definitely not sprung...and after all, it's nowhere near time for it to. Such is winter. Normally, our coldest period is the last week of January through the first half of this is to be much as I hate it. (frown face)

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