|Storm Moving Out to Sea - Canopy shown in bottom left was 'destroyed' by a later storm from the west|
Tandem MCCs rotated around High Pressure over Texas yesterday across Illinois, Missouri into Tennessee and the Carolina's and were heading south to southeast late yesterday.
The resultant storm 'debris' is noted over Florida at time of sunrise and accompanying large OFB (outflow boundary) has already generated showers and thunder over North Florida which began before sunrise just off the NW Florida Coast.
This area will slowly work south but guidance might be having a hard time discerning just exactly how far south it will get versus falling apart.
Regardless, said activity more than likely will result in additional small OFBs (outflow boundaries) that will process their way south and eastward in the west to east mid level synoptic scale flow flow.
Meanwhile, south of I-4 and more so along and south of the Beach Line route to Sarasota as the crow flies....afternoon heating with some clearing skies is already starting and will provide the impetus for a bit of a mix of circumstance especially north of West Palm Beach - resulting in a blend of the old OFB from the north with the more typical daytime heating/storm regime.
Upper level temperatures are a bit warmer than 'strong storm' days, but not so warm that some wet micro-burst winds could not occur as shown on the Meso-scale Analysis page given the amount of already available PWAT air (Precipitable Water values), courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman , Oklahoma; however, the 'potential' is on the very low end of the scale.
Given current conditions, wind gusts in the 45mph to 56mph range could occur later today, but only in a very isolated fashion with more of the 25-38 mph puffs being the norm near stronger activity , especially after 2pm *which might be ore toward Eastern South Central.
Rains could persist into late afternoon especially South Central Florida where cloudier skies would persist elsewhere.
THURSDAY-WEEKEND: More typical type activities though pointing toward particular regions in pockets of deepest moisture, but just exactly where those might be is a tough call. Guidance implies a remnant frontal
boundary to move off the east coast will leave sort of a 'ghost trough' near Central Florida which might act as a focus for more concentrated activities for two days namely Friday and Saturday.