"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Strong/Severe Storms Possible ..OR....

Red where possible "hot zone" storms could occur today from WNW of Ft. Pierce to the Coast and South into Broward County mainly near and East of Lake Okeechobee toward Ft. Lauderdale 
Frontal boundary, very shallow has reached South Central and dissipated.  Mid-Level trough is still to drop south this afternoon. Although there is just enough instability for showers as far north as the Cape, believe any showers to from later today will be along that mid-level trough toward Lake County, if even that.

Otherwise, the region where the boundary at the surface has waned out , is where it got caught up in stacked westerlies, increasing with height. The only down side to the areas shown is this region "could" be on the descending side of an upper level jet streak forecast to cross Central, although model guidance so far do not indicate this to be the case in the precipitation fields. Believe at this point most of Dade and just maybe Southern Broward might eke out on the storms due to forecast warming in the mid-levels, but should a storm punch through that layer they could go gang busters.

Given the forecast vertical helicity, and approaching mid-level lift ahead of the trough to drop through Central, storms could be strong to severe, although 500mb temperatures are not crazy bonker nuts cold, they are sufficient. 

***CAVEAT:**** Due to the lack of any low level boundaries, no forecast triggers in the vorticity fields, and if the RAP and SPC MesoAnalysis guidance is correct, the area in question could dry up in the mid levels to quickly after 330pm, which would discount this chance altogether to very little activity at all. Close monitoring thus will be necessary to either confirm either/or/ situation beyond that time frame. In the meanwhile, certainly some storms could manifest, but it is always possible there will not be ample moisture in place at or just after the time of  peak storm hours if those two  pieces of guidance are correct. Lapse rates that looked tremendous down that way earlier today are not as impressive per latest LDIS/RAP plot from the MLB NWS Office Website. Otherwise,

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Pleasant and a bit cooler with no rains forecast for the most part except maybe some scant showers south Florida toward the SW Coast.

SUNDAY; Not a significant enough change in guidance to harp on what has already been written here the past two days. Mid level 'warm front' from the trough to pass down the state today lifts back north in response to mid-upper level low pressure across the north Gulf coast region. In doing so, moisture depth increases from south to north. This boundary at the mid-levels should be near Central by mid-afternoon Sunday, with showers reaching as far north as the Cape by near midnight or so Sunday night into Monday. GFS continues to expound a 'shift change', namely that the Brevard Coast area give or take a county could get very wet from post-Sunday Midnight through much of Monday, this will continue to be watched.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Day by day give or take thunderstorm chances remain in guidance. The GFS and ECMWF appear to pull a cold front through on Thursday, and if so, that will be the end of this pattern on that day after sunset. So far, looks like an early afternoon start to showers and thunder ending after 8pm each evening Monday through Thursday. But, as the story ends, can't count the chickens until they've hatched, otherwise a forecast post for that time frame this far in advance could well be hard-boiled.

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