"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, May 10, 2013

Chance of an Isolated Pop Severe Thunder Today, Showers/Thunder through Sunday

Areas in Red are where there is a better potential for a storm to pulse severe briefly, especially north of Lake Okeechobee along the sea breeze and/or Lake Breeze and toward East Central after 5-6pm
TODAY: Early post so much could change, but guidance for the past few hours is fairly consistent so going ahead and sending out an early post to cover that potential for the time being. Convective Instability today (CAPE) is expected to reach between 2500-3000 this afternoon, especially toward East Central by late day. Activity further south might get started before this potential fully develops but breeze boundaries from both coasts could provide ample lower level upward forcing to generate some strong activity there. There was a briefly severe storm down toward Dade County yesterday.  

Further north, east coast sea breeze to get near at least I-95 into Eastern Orange/Osceola County, west of which temperatures could get toward 90F degrees today. The best instability at this early hour is actually moving up the east coast from the south over the ocean. The east coast sea breeze therefore could be potent later today, especially after 5:30pm or so as the Lifted Condensation Levels lower post-peaking heating hours. Air aloft will be quite cold enough for small to near severe sized hail (mainly away from the coasts), but wind gusts could be strong elsewhere in one or two storms all the way to the coast. Thus, we might hear some Special marine warnings being issued.  There would also be a chance for a renegade funnel cloud .  Thing to watch would be any storm that goes up along the sea breeze and works north or south along it, especially if this occurs over or very near the intracoastal just about anywhere. Some activity might eventually either work off the east coast later on in toward evening or upper level winds could spread a cloud deck to the coast for a cloudy sunset.

SATURDAY: Same locations could see a storm but further north as well toward I-4. So far, no sign they will have the potential to be as strong as today , but that could easily change. Warm again, mostly away from the beaches as the sea breeze sets in. Might be more moisture available in general for earlier onset of cumulus cloud fields to hold off the afternoon highs. In general, looks like another sea breeze activation day plus some lake breezes, mainly later on in the day.

SUNDAY:  A frontal boundary will be pressing down the state with most activity a bit earlier along that boundary toward I-4 or so, and a bit later as the boundary works south. Any better chance of thunder though on this day looks to be near the Beach Line  from Titusville to Tampa and South, especially into South Central and parts of South Florida.

BEYOND:   Dry and nice for several days to come with some thunder over South Florida on Monday. It might still remain quite warm on Monday inland, South Florida (again) but a bit cooler further north with highs in the lower 80Fs to near 80F at the beaches.

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