"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, April 29, 2013

"Could Get "Wild" in Select Locations Late Today, Rain in Forecast through the Week

Tricky forecast (no doubt) for today due to vast model discrepancies  This Cast is based on persistence and newly evolving short term guidance (in some cases)
TODAY: As mentioned yesterday, chance of strong to severe weather in random isolated fashion is possible later today remains with the greatest chances being over Central to North Central Florida with a slightly lower chance for the strongest activity over South Florida.  Given latest guidance trends and visible satellite imagery, the usual South Florida might get started earliest at a less than  'the most favorable time of day' for strongest activity, not to say there could not be some strong storms mostly west of I-95 toward the swamps.

Further north, at this time will be watching for an increasing S-SSE wind up the intercoastal to begin after 3-4pm time frame as the current very unfavorable conditions or rain in Central begin to shrink in size as moisture works into the area. At this time Central is not looking good for hardly a rain shower today, but that could quickly change after 4pm. Outside of model guidance, a more localized late day tilted sea breeze enhanced by gradient flow enhancing low level helicity and shear mainly near US1 toward I-95 combine with the land curvature of the Cape seems to be the best area for strongest activity ..with secondary areas further south and north. Thus, the area to watch late would be Osceola/Orange/ far eastern Lake County  most of Volusia County,  Southern  Flagler County (if high clouds do not affect that area) and North Brevard to South Central Brevard mainly west of US1. However, should a storm anywhere from Central Brevard north through Volusia effectively penetrate the sea breeze and violate 'model rules' a waterspout couldn't be entirely discounted near the water ways or off in the Atlantic.  The bigger threat as usual will be cloud to ground lightning strikes, some potentially far removed from the rain areas, small pea to dime hail, and wind gusts topping 60mph. Again, this would be after 4pm and closer toward the 6-7pm time frame; thus, a preliminary 'heads up and just in case'.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Not much has changed in the longer range for Florida, as noted yesterday, much is still 'up in the air' regarding what is to occur over the Central Plains toward the Mid West States regarding a mid-upper level low. To add fuel to the complexity of this 'more extended' time frame, guidance keeps going in and out with a mid level low (per previous ECMWF runs and at times the NAM) to form west of Florida as a function from the Northern Caribbean to cross FLorida and/or almost form over the state). On the other hand, the GFS has consistently not shown any such entity. If the latest ECMWF verifies, the rainiest time frame could be Thursday into Friday as a result of said anomaly  Another such anomaly is that the GFS is showing a bit of a mid-level 'warm front' wind shift type line across Central Florida on Wednesday (perhaps instead of that just stated) which could be a focal point for rain and thunder which could make almost anytime Tuesday into Wednesday the big rain day, especially along the east coast. Point is, every day is different than the previous as well as the day after as it stands now all of this week. 

Otherwise, temperatures will remain comfortable with plenty of clouds in the picture. Rain could occur on Tuesday just about any time through Thursday just to highlight that we could increasingly fall away from the after-evening type regime Florida is accustomed to. When all is said and done by the weekend some areas 'could' receive several inches of rain due to very slow storm motions, especially after today.

BEYOND: The prospects for much cooler air has also faded from the picture, come back, then disappeared again heading toward Sunday. Chances are, if it doesn't get here by Sunday, it never will.


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