"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 18, 2015

'Looks Like Rain Today' - Chance of Localized Flooding

"Hmmm... Looks Like Rain Today"
TODAY: Very similar scenario in place from yesterday ; however, this morning there is nostrong activity off the west coast that was in place yesterday, hence no aid from outflow boundaries as an additive source for initiation and perhaps stronger storms at least in the first parts of the day.

Temperatures aloft are almost exactly the same though, and moisture availability is in abundant supply with sunny skies. 

The KSC Sounding showed a convective temperature of 89F which is reachable by shortly after 'noon time zone' -- with very light westerlies in the steering column.

The winds however, just off the surface might be a tad stronger than yesterday which would mean the east coast sea breeze would make less inland progress today and/or would be extremely shallow in vertical depth. 

There is a bit of an inverted trough at 10,000 feet (roughly 700mb) aloft running just north of I-4 from north Tampa Bay toward Ormond Beach and suspect this will be at least primarily the initial location for the better heavy rainfall total threat. This same region had big totals yesterday so flood statements or advisories might be warranted in that area at some point in time.

The boundary did drift a bit south though and expect it to begin to lose identity per the GFS as it drifts toward Central by Sunday afternoon.  

Overall, sea breeze collisions with heavy overloading could result in a few stronger gusts that is if the atmosphere is not worked over in most locations before the collision can occur.  Stronger storms from wind  will be as it appears now well in the exception rather than the norm especially later in the day when cloud cover takes over as is assumed will be the case. 

 Some areas will not see rain today  though. The NAM model came in surprisingly scant all things considered in the rain coverage department if it verifies? I guess we'll find out by tonight.

SUNDAY: Overall scenario continues with the better rain chances shifting a bit more south to Central Direct, otherwise everything else appears to be running status-quo.

BEYOND: Same general scenario at large until maybe later in the week when temps aloft might warm some and as a result less activity despite the ample moisture. This is very iffy though so wouldn't make any wagers just yet .  Otherwise, outside of the period when rain chances could decrease, there isn't any big curve balls being shown on the horizon for about 10 days at which point we're are beyond model reliability .

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