"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Early Day - Noon Storms Mainly Central...South Central, Florida

Thunderstorms are in progress at 7AM. This radar overlay with Mixed Layer CAPE (a measure of instability) shows the areas unfavorable for rain at this hour...namely from Central Volusia County and North in blue. The area from near Daytona Beach and south can still get a storm if not early then around early-mid afternoon from outflow boundaries working north.  Storms over Central Florida could have gusty winds today of 40-50mph
TODAY: The early bird gets the worm..or in the case of today..the storm. Storms are rapidly progressing ESE from the WNW this morning...and little change in this pattern is expected today. In turn, regeneration of storms might allow rain totals to pile up along the east and west coasts (mainly west coast) from near Brooksville to Tampa.  Storms this morning could produce some very gusty winds of 40-50mph, especially those that reach the east coast after 11AM as some daytime heating increases low level lapse rates. Those storms would most likely occur from south of Melbourne toward Ft. Pierce...but further north toward Playalinda beach and south to Daytona cannot be completely discounted as well. 

Storms are beginning to form offshore the west coast further south with rising of the sun. These will also work into the Lake Okeechoee area to Fort Lauderdale by noon or later. Expect much like yesterday's pattern for residents there, but with earlier onset of rain today from yesterday...with similar strength ..which might not be as strong as those further north which is located within an approaching 700mb trough.

Note: A "substantial waterspout' was ogled by a park ranger at Sebastian Inlet yesterday. Not sure a repeat performance will occur today..but if so a similar scenario could unfold in the same general location toward Ft. Pierce as storms move offshore.  

Otherwise, not as hot again today with earlier storms or cloud cover onset.  

THURSDAY: A similar pattern could unfold, only a bit further south. Storms on Thursday could occur roughly south of a line running from North Tampa Bay to Titusville, with the bigger rainfall totals further south as well. Very warm to hot from JAX to Port St. John on the east coast with highs in the mid-upper 90Fs...record high  at Daytona is possible.  An early afternoon sea breeze could take coastal temperatures down to normal. For the most part..the bigger rainfall totals will run from Tampa Bay to Vero Beach or Ft Pierce and south.

FRIDAY: This should be the driest day statewide, with a bit of a ghostly haunt of the past 4 days' pattern remaining for West Palm to Tampa Bay.  This day will need to be reassessed in regard to timing of rains and northern extent as well. Looks to be very rainy, or wet early with lingering light rain in the Miami Metro area.

SATURDAY: Pattern tends to retrograde with the approach of yet another mid and upper level trough from the west northwest (now over the Southern Plains).  Rains possible from mainly Brooksville to Oak Hill on the east coast (or the southern Volusia County area).

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Rains more statewide...

*** Saturday-Monday: These storms might be a bit later in the day, and stronger near the east coast along I-95 as it does appear an east coast sea breeze with very little inland penetration will be at play. In essence, things will be much different come Saturday and beyond from how they have been the past several days.

TROPICS: Not much to monitor at this time, although the Hurricane Center is watching Emily's Ashes for what reason I know not. They are giving it a ZERO percent chance of redevelopment...but they might be watching to see if it can get recirculated into the main stream...resurrected,resitated, or a story for reality TV?  

Emilycould remain nearly invisible (rather spooky), but the energy with it might make full circle and get caught in the easterlies in 5 days or so. That is the only reason I can see for tracking it.  Otherwise, there is another tropical wave SW of the Cape Verdes off the coast of Africa.  At this time, there is a lot of dry air ahead of it..but the wave is a Tidal one...and seems it might create its own bit of havoc on its own accord regardless.

The GFS model has various solutions for this wave from absolutely nothing in future days to a very large tropical cyclone moving into the Bay of Campeche and festering there in about 12 days. On the other hand, one solution has had it flirting with the U.S. East coast from Hatteras to Maine..ala 2010 storms.  

With that, we can produce our own little "cone of uncertainty"!

CONE OF UNCERTAINTY is only about 1500-2000 miles wide at day 12.

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