This morning's entry is entitled "Beach Trash". After unsettled sleep last night I thought it would be good to take a walk over to the beach to spur my senses..WRONG! Was greeted by commonly seen locals (who believe me were QUITE drunk) , strange looking seashells, and junk clouds as can be seen in the photos.
For today, the weather looks like trash as well. The surface high pressure axis did decide to move out of South Carolina and is nearing south Georgia but for Central Florida that means little to no change in the current setup. There is ample moisture for large cumulus clouds along the coast up until noontime, and maybe a weak rainshower. Winds out of the ENE will arrive by 1pm and the rest of the day will be like Sunday. Best storms today will be from Fort Myers to Tampa.
Yesterday's storms over on that side of the state took a sabatical (as far as anything decent), which seems was due to temperatures a good 3 degrees warmer at all levels aloft which was not in the forecast, as well as a sudden moisture drop at 800mb. Whether that will be the case for today, well it's too early to say since that data is not yet available. If this morning's sounding reveals the same, then well, their getting hosed royally.
Forecast: Transition may well be underway over night tonight. Winds could veer to S or SSW for a short time before sunrise with the remote chance of a shower during the transition. Don't expect full bore transition though until later Wednesday. For now...would expect some storms closer to home tomorrow early in the day, but the affects should be more apparent late Wednesday and Thursday.
Tropically Speaking: The tropical wave that came off Africa is still holding its own quite well and it looks like it will continue to hold together and organize. We might be talking about a depression in 2-3 days. Now for the fun part. The GFS is actually holding it together into somewhere between a strong depression to tropical storm the whole way across the Atlantic to the southern Bahamas by the middle of NEXT week. It then curves NW and eventually NNW toward Hatteras just off the Florida East Coast and strengthens into a hurricane carving a path up to New Jersey. It's too early to even consider this scenario although if this thing does hold together (and I think it will)..such a path is not out of the realms of possibilites. But just exactly how for west it will make it is up in the air. Main point is, at least the models are showing a "tropical something". First time this season. We shall see.