(Image: Dark cloud bases off the Coast near Cape Canaveral last summer)
SYNOPSIS: Surface front/boundary near I-10 in North Florida early this afternoon will press south and weaken over land during the course of the next 18 hours as it tries to move into Central Florida. For the most part, the meat of the boundary will remain well offshore. As the boundary sinks south later this afternoon it will be stretched thin with a respectable ribbon of middle level moisture remain through noon tomorrow over Central Florida. Meanwhile, high pressure is building east and south behind this boundary and getting ready to pounce on the north half of the peninsula by Tuesday Morning.
TODAY: Will it be a repeat of the past two evenings over Central Florida? A house was struck and damaged last night, and the night before two football players were injured...both over the immediate Central Florida peninsula near Orlando. It looks like now as of 1pm that this will be the case once again. This mornings KSC sounding came in relatively dry compared to days past, but this could change after 6pm this evening as the boundary sinks south. The west coast sea breeze is getting the head start north of Tampa and south of West Palm on the east side of the state. The east coast boundary will work inland and likely make it as far as the Orlando Area (the Turnpike this evening) south of Orlando...then slant more along the I-4 corridor toward Daytona. Enhanced Cu field and a shower already forming near northern Lake County...much earlier than yesterday...whereas the Cu field is pretty meager south of I-4. More enhanced Cu area in Western Volusia and passing offshore near Daytona.
Expect most thunder to begin to occur north of I-4 before sunset, but about that time through 10pm could fill in toward I-95 as far south as far West Cocoa closer to the Brevard County Border...elsewhere...most activity should be close to the turnpike over Osceola County toward Lake Okeechobee...but lessen in coverage the further south one gets. Rain and possibly thunder could occur near Titusville and Cocoa, perhaps reaching the coast after 10pm this evening. There is lots of lightning being detected with the activity currently near Tallahassee, and expect the meat of such to possibly occur over Lake-Orange-West Seminole-Western Volusia Counties shortly before dark to two hours after dark. It is noted that the NAM model is being most aggressive with all features as has been the case for over a week, and in fact brings the core of storm to drought parched region of Brevard County from 10pm-midnight, but this is for the most part being discounted. The GFS shows maybe some light rain the same area..which could manifest as cloud cover in actuality. The RUC, although doesn't go out that far in time, isn't even leaning at hinting at the possibility of anything remotely close to either of these solutions, which sounds probably most appropriate based on persistence and the current air mass over Brevard which will probably slow to adjust to a showery environment, if in fact it ever does.
Further south, they're not playing with frontal boundaries to any degree whatsoever yet. Pattern south of West Palm being dictated by the same pattern as the past many already with a moist environment in place and light west to east shower motion in place, albeit very very weak. Showers and perhaps thunder could occur between the coast and the East Side of Lake O almost anytime now and generally propagate south or north along the sea breeze boundary. Other showers could back build across I-95 near SE Palm Beach County to Miami. This activity will be at it's strongest just east of Ft. Myers - Naples, mainly over Big Cypress National Preserve and Everglade National Park between the hours of 4pm -7pm as this activity peaks then dies over swamp lands. Further north, activity could push offshore toward Port Charlotte to Sarasota.
TOMORROW: Ridging building in across N/C Florida..with the last of whatever moisture is left of the boundary to remain over east central Florida until early afternoon. Thus, a few isolated showers possible late morning near the coast but quickly transitioning south and inland during the day.
South Florida will continue with a day similar to today.
AFTER TUESDAY: No much rain if any through next weekend. Slight chance of nocturnal showers along the coast from Miami to Melbourne Beach, but these will be very light and isolated...if even.
TROPICS: Not much change locally until after IGOR makes its most threatening blow to Bermuda. IGOR already is a Cat 2 Hurricane, and could make it to CAT 4. This storm already is, and will continue to be more so through at least the first half of next week, a very impressive looking storm on satellite imagery. Looks like the U.S. will not be impacted though. However, by next weekend swells from the system should be impacting the Florida East Coast, and with such pleasant weather in-store for that area next weekend as it looks now, rip current threat will probably go up not unlike with those associated with Danielle. Swimmer beware.
System in the Caribbean still appears to be heading toward the Yucatan, and may never become a depression...but still poses a rain/flood threat to Cuba and the Dominican Republic through the first half of the week. The next system behind IGOR might become our next named system, but as it stands now appears to be to close to IGOR and will pull off something like a Fiona..playing tag along with the Igor. If it can maintain its distance, it will get pulled north and east behind IGOR and be of no threat to any one.