FALL BEGINS WHEN THE SUN PASSES OVER THE EQUATOR DIRECTLY:
10:29 PM EDT Monday Evening , September 22nd.
TODAY: Not much change in reasoning regarding the next three days from the previous post. Info from model guidance and satellite imagery shows two apparent boundaries: the later being more defined by the northern most extent of deepest moisture with increasing moisture over South Central and South Florida. This moisture might be further north than than models are showing but water vapor imagery is showing North Brevard is about as far as it gets for this time so far. This could be a player later today where the drier meets the more moist (North Brevard/SW Volusia area).
That gradient might play in late today toward early evening for either increased shower or storm activity or a strong storm. Other thunder and showers could occur almost anywhere further south though as well; however, at this time satellite imagery is suggesting something might be 'amiss' in a few specifics that will make the bigger difference toward Volusia county especially later today where storms could occur near the coast at least for the south half of it and inland a bit.
High cloud wisps here and there are putting a damper on instability (less heating) and we're getting to the time of year when seemingly every minute begins to count in weather the temperature will reach the critical convective threshold for rising air currents especially since in the upper levels the temperatures are not so unusually cold at all and the surface to low level boundaries are rather not sharply defined. It appears at time a better chance of showers at least would be Central and South Central Florida toward the east side, though they could occur most anywhere.
Some activity might still be around far East Central toward Brevard after dark.
MONDAY: Though the boundaries have weakened today with sea breezes in place so will it be tomorrow with less cloud coverage in the afternoon and better heating . Best instability appears will run south of line from Daytona or Ormond Beach west toward Brookesville or even Cedar key. Divergence might be best aloft over the east half of the state however south of Daytona to near the Cape and inland with storms there, but other activity is possible as well. Though not a broad total coverage will occur, most any where could see storms and maybe a strong to 'near severe' could occur East Central to eastern North Central.
TUESDAY: The frontal boundary gets toward Central but is crested by High Pressure to the north. Showers could occur near the coast even in the morning from that time on into Wednesday but still this day could be yet another 'strong storm potential ' one with colder air aloft seeming to be more certain as of the morning GFS.
WEDNESDAY: Light easterly winds at the low levels begins as the front is now in full frontolysis (broken down) but with SE winds streaming north of the Bahamas toward East Central and Volusia just above the surface this could create the dynamics for coastal showers; thus , watching for rain near the coast in the morning and into the afternoon at least. At least it is something to consider at this time.
Model disparity based on run to model run seems to be breaking down at this point in regard to continuity. Some GFS runs are still showing some larger accumulations of rainfall at the coast toward the weekend, followed by the next run that says it's not going to happen. Chances are it will not, but wouldn't put all the eggs in that basket until the 4rd quarter and we're not there yet. By tomorrow, we should know for certain if any kind of 'rain event' will occur.