"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, August 20, 2010

VERY Sketchy Wx Forecast

(Image: Radar around 10:30pm shows that the Barrier Islands and the A1A corridor of E. Florida were the sole heirs to the Storm God Throne for the state last night)
RECAP: Yesterday evolved pretty much as expected. There was indeed no activity along the eastern sea breeze front as it moved slowly inland and away from the coast. West met East around 7-8pm and the storms went up over Volusia, Seminole, Osceola, and southwest into Polk County. From the beaches, the line of storms was very easily discernible along the WSW-NW horizon as appearing like a tidal wave lit up by lightning strikes while clear skies prevailed overhead in the after glow of the setting sun behind the storms to the west. The mid level westerly push of winds aloft eased the activity toward the coast. The storms right along the barrier islands was actually induced more by outflow from the original storms rather than those storms themselves which suffered a rapid demise around 9pm.  The outflow boundary, delineated by a cool looking gust front, was visible here even though it was totally dark out due to the glow from lighting around the Port and a near by softball field, both of which gave it a peach/pink hue. The biggest show of the evening was actually along central portions of the Osceola/Polk County line, whereas additional storms redeveloped from the outflow from Titusville south right down the intracoastal waterway to nearly Indialantic Beach. South of Titusville the heaviest rainfalls were actually east of the Indian River from the Port Entrance toward Satellite Beach down the A1A Corridor (as depicted by the included radar image from around 10:30pm last night). At my place we received just over 1.5" of rain...but somewhere near PAFB might have received even more. Another report from Titusville came in with almost 1.96 inches. Pretty much all of the south half of Brevard County as well as almost all of the South Half of Florida remained virtually rain free during the course of the mid-late evening last night.
SYNOPSIS: Broad region of high pressure extends across the entire southern half of the state, with the axis appearing at this time to be just north of a Miami-Naples line way down there. Broad area of weak low pressure, in coincidence of the remnant mid-level circulation from TD5 meanders somewhere near the Alabama-Georgia line west of Atlanta or near Rome, GA. Continuing to watch this area as it might influence our weather locally in 2-3 days. Otherwise, little to speak of. Upper level temps remain on the warm side with PWATs over or near 2" inches (ample moisture for storm generation).
TODAY: Similar to yesterday for starters. Again expecting very little to zero rain showers through at least 2pm for most of Central Florida other than activity that might go up in North Central Sections toward Gainesville and Ocala (and Lake County) or much further west along the developing West Coast sea breeze.  Two days ago steering flow started to come from the SSW after dark, then by yesterday and last night it was primarily from the W with WNW tendencies, and today it appears as though it will start out from the WNW and veer even more around the clock to being from the NW-NNW by or shortly after sunset. High pressure over South Florida will be retrograding westward into the GOM during the course of the day while another center remains well to the east and just north of the Bahamas in the Atlantic. The retrograding high pressure center will be the cause of some veering of the mid-level winds during the day. Otherwise, temperatures running right where they have other words just at or slightly above normal, particularly along and west of I-95.
Expect another collision of sea breezes within an hour of sunset perhaps a little further to the east than from yesterday from western portions of Flagler, Volusia Counties backing more toward the SSW as one heads through Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and "O" County due to the greater inland push of the East Coast sea breeze inland the further south one gets. 
AFTER SUNSET: Things get tricky from here on out for several days. Rather than spell out a variety of scenarios that COULD occur we'll leave this short and stay primarily in the present.  To cut to the chase, not so sure that showers/storms will make there presence known along the A1A corridor south of the Cape tonight. If winds aloft veer too much toward the NNW outflows combined with the sea breeze boundary would cause further storm generation to remain along or west of I-95 as one works into Brevard and all points south toward Lake "O".   Models are mixed on this scenario evolving though this evening, so my initial inclination is to ride with persistence which would mean that the same areas that received rainfall last night late could again receive rain tonight. Just remember though, last night was pretty darned fluky...and one would think that a repeat performance would be unlikely...but stranger things have happened. In many years of 'weather watching' along the Brevard seems to be that many times the summer weather pattern here often occurs in groupings of 'two'. We may have about worked our way through this grouping essentially we've already had two evenings of post sunset rainfall.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND: Honestly, my arms are up in the air. The NAM is not only continuing to be the odd ball out with developing a mid-upper level low near the Northern Bahamas, but now it's even more adamant about it than yesterday's run. If it verifies...much of eastern coastal Florida could be close to a zero rain chance for maybe 2 days. Beyond that it just gets plain bizarre with a reversal to a very wet pattern for much of eastern and southern parts of the state as we head into Monday. On the other hand, the GFS is running status quo with its line of 'thinking'.  I think what eventually will evolve is something between the two solutions which would give us another day of a chance of storms (i.e., Saturday in particular). By this time tomorrow we'll start to have a much better handle on the situation for the near future...errr..perhaps?  To plainly put, anyone who has outdoor activities planned for Saturday through Monday should simply check in with your preferred form of resources to 'get the latest and greatest'. 
TROPICS: Developments in the far eastern Atlantic still anticipated per models and climatologically speaking, but as of now there is only some disturbances out there. By this time next week we could be talking about two named systems...neither of which will be threatening the U.S. East Coast or the Gulf (yet). 
Also, still watching the mid-level remnant TD 5 circulation referred to above. This circulation still appears as though it will generate along the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle in the course of the next 48 hours. Just where this occurs and how strong it becomes will be yet another card in the mischievous deck of forecasting tarot cards we will be dealt ...another reason why a forecast beyond Saturday, is in my opinion...merely a flip of the coin at this time today. 

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