After a respite from daily blog posts due to the fact that there's not much to write about when all we have is 'cold weather'...opportunity has now arisen for some morning musing. "Uh-Oh!" you say? You bet. That means active weather is on its' way...and in a big way.
Looks like the first Florida Spring Storm is on its way. Please note, this is a very complex scenario unfolding...therefore I'm leaving this very simple and to the point. Besides, I'm a bit rusty on putting thoughts on "paper" again.
TODAY: A nice day in store. For the most part our gradual warming trend will continue. However, as is always the case in the early spring temperatures become an issue. That is, if one is east of Merritt Island the afternoon sea breeze drops the temperature considerably during the afternoon. Therefore, even though areas west of M.I. will reach well into the 70s today..east of M.I. it might initially start to warm...but with ocean temperatures in the "50s"...coastal afternoon temperatures will fall into the upper 60s...and almost generically around 68 degrees during peak heating while inland it can be a good 10 degrees warmer. In any case, expect just some high clouds today with a very light SE wind.
A frontal system will be entering the panhandle early Thursday and a low (or serious of them) will form along the front in the Gulf and train across the Central Peninsula. That's about as simple as one can state what is to come. These low pressure systems along with interesting windfields aloft along with a huge slug of moisture will produce some interesting weather. Okay...here we go:
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds with very mild temperatures in the low-mid 60s across the boards with a light SSE wind.
THURSDAY: More mid-high level clouds with an increasing wind from the south at 10-20mph. to start the day. It's a close call though...because our friends in N. Florida are going to be getting slammed with the rain and storms. A harbinger of things to come. And they WILL come. Sometime between 12pm-3pm the rains will move in and they will be here to stay for a while!
Expect initially they will be in the form of thunderstorms (fingers crossed)...but as rain continues the atmosphere will stabilize too much for 'thunder'.
MORE ABOUT THURSDAY: 1) I wouldn't be surprised to hear about flood advisories being posted, and 2) We may end up in either a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. I'm guessing the latter! Wind fields look nearly excellent for a tornado potential by late in the afternoon on Thursday as a strong southern branch will be streaking overhead in combo with directional shear and diffluence aloft. The limiting factor for a more assured tornado threat is the lack of instability. However, I believe at the beginning of this "event" there will be more instability than we have had in any previous event this winter. So it is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED to remain abreast of the weather conditions via the media or weather radio (surely you have one by now!)
GOING INTO FRIDAY: Once the rains begin they will be here to stay. And we aren't talking little, dainty sprinkles. These could be heavy, torrential rains (periodically speaking)...so hold on to the raincoats and umbrellas...heck...might want to buy a canoe for this one. Expecting rainfall totals to easily be over 1" and perhaps up to 3-plus inches in some locales
FRIDAY: Thunderstorms..or possibly just lots of rain..pretty much all day with a healthy SW wind around 20mph gusting to 30mph at times.
SATURDAY: Looks like the rain will be slow to move out, but once it does it will be gone for good. It's a total guess as to when it will end...but I'm guessing now sometime around late morning.
Clearly refinement of this blogcast will be required with time. I've written this post without even the latest data...so I may be well off-base. Stay tuned!!