"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Showers/Thunder Possible Almost Anywhere

Storms Lining Up Near Vero Beach as Seen
Looking South from Cape Canaveral on Saturday
TODAY: Looks like the 12Z GFS of Saturday (and most other models) were incorrect regarding the first half of today as the day is not starting out with near calm winds (esp. along the east coast). Winds this morning have failed to die down and are from the SE up through at least 5000 ft if not higher (OR SO IT WAS thought); however, per latest RAP/NAM and GFS, those winds are to shift to a more southerly to SSW direction by mid morning through early afternoon aloft until we work through mid-afternoon. 

A quick check out side since the beginning of this typing and latest surface observations show that the wind shifted in the past hour and is now from the southwest along the coast of East Central, which means that the models referred to above might actually have something going for them. Onshore winds have switched to off shore within an hour of sunrise.

It's really only an exercise in futility in the long run though, so will keep the post brief. The net effect (if the model guidance is correct) would be for showers and some thunder to be able to form close to the east coast, especially from near Vero/Ft Pierce and North toward the Cape after 11AM up through early afternoon and then work inland, much like yesterday. There is the potential for storms to hang back closer toward the coast over Central to South Central as well a bit longer than yesterday if the guidance is correct, but overall, today might end up not a whole lot different than yesterday when 5pm rolls around.

The Notes Spell It Out,  Lower than Usual Confidence for Today (noted)

The only difference so far (given it is still quite early in the morning and much could change when the next model runs come out) is it is even more difficult to find any particular area for late afternoon that appears more favorable for  'more robust activity' than any other area. 

The area that is latest to be 'turned over' by cloud cover and/or rainfall is more than likely to be the area that will end up having the most electrically charged storms with stronger wind gusts possible (and that would seem to be somewhere around the Polk County north into Lake County and perhaps Western Volusia County zones up toward Ocala and along the west side of the Suwannee River Basin (not forgetting anywhere along I-10).  

MONDAY: Transitional day, looking very 'typical' with mainly inland storms but working closer to the east coast near and north of I-4 (Volusia), though inevitably the finer details which can make a big difference at times will need to be looked at again "Come Monday".

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: No change to previous reasoning of the past several posts.  SW flow aloft would enable activity to come much closer to East Coast Communities, who might hope for some rainfall, as it looks like by Friday into early or much of next week, those areas might end up lacking in the rainfall category. The flow does not look strong enough to preclude the east coast sea breeze though except possibly from Central Volusia County and north.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND  Deeper easterly flow so far is being indicated to last for 4-6 days to commence Friday after noon time, though we have now entered the realm of  impossibilities, esp. in regard to how long the more easterly flow will last.

Beach Goers  Spared of having to abandon ship
Who Moved the Rockies East?

Unlike.... 4 days ago

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