"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 28, 2011

Increasingly More Pleasant Through The Weekend

Images/recap: Mid level short wave trough crossed the state overnight and is clearing Central Florida early this morning. This is portrayed by the mid and upper level clouds on satellite imagery, density of the clouds picked up as light rain by radar in the second image (last night), and the lack of any appreciable wind shift in the surface winds in the third image. If we compare the third image (temperature profile) with those clouds, we see the coldest temperatures this morning at 7am are where the clouds had cleared earlier during the course of the wee-morning hours permitting allowing for some radiational cooling before sunrise.

Otherwise, under the clouds, the temperature fell (on the average) about 5 degrees at most after 10pm, resulting in wide spread mid-upper 40s. The final 4th image is a forecast surface weather system plot for 7am Sunday morning.

High pressure that currently encompasses a broad expanse from the Intermountain Region of the Rocky Mountains through Texas into the Western Gulf will be weakening over the continental landmass as the ridge continues to build east and across the Florida peninsula through the weekend, only to be replaced near SW Kansas by a surface low and a very nice warm front stretching eastward from it, symbolizing a very nice, long-over due warm up for the Southern Plains States over the weekend.

TODAY: Rapid clearing by early this morning Central. The sky is just about to clear as I'm typing. South Florida will see the clouds until at least late morning into the early afternoon hours, clearing from north to south. A mid-level trough of low pressure (which I referred to yesterday as an "elevated cold front") is clearing the area and damping out with no other weather impacts today. Winds after passage will be much like yesterday's under a mainly clear sky and similar afternoon temperatures. Honestly, though, I didn't look into the nitty-gritty regarding the temperatures as all other factors remain essentially constant and there really is no reason to dwell on this aspect.

WEEKEND WEATHER: Surface high pressure will pulse across the Gulf and Florida through the weekend with the tail end of the ridge exiting the Florida East Coast late Sunday. Sometime during the weekend we might see another mid-upper level trough cross the state, but it will likely be even weaker than the one last night/this morning that has generated the clouds and be of no impact in regards to rain, winds, or temperature.

Coolest morning will be Saturday 'over all' as skies will be clear tomorrow morning in the wake of the passing trough and winds settle down appreciably early this evening at the latest. Temperatures along A1A will be close to that of this morning, mid-upper 40s but cooler inland than what was felt their this morning, mainly lower 40s with a broad expanse of temperature readings within reach of each other over much of the peninsula other than far south (warmer) and far north (colder).

MONDAY: Air mass modification begins overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the last of the high pressure ridge will be fully exiting the Florida east coast with a warmer coastal overnight low for starters and more low level moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere beginning to manifest.

REGARDING MONDAY AND BEYOND: Lots of time still for the information that came in overnight to reach closer agreement during the next 48-hours. Not foreseeing any rain at this point until almost Thursday now as the GFS continues to delay the next system. Interestingly, it is forecasting more mid-upper level energy to cross the state on Monday than what it forecast for the storm system of last Tuesday when we had the severe weather, but it remains dry due to lack of moisture for that energy to work with. The NAM, on the other hand, brings in showers. So we'll see what starts to evolves first, then take it from there with the model forecasts.

In general though, beyond Monday into Wednesday, I'm hoping we will see official forecasts take the afternoon high temperatures higher than what is being advertised on TV. Hoping to see a broad expanse of mid-upper 70s, even for North Florida and into SE Georgia if not further not further north. A lot depends on what happens on Monday and beyond in regards to the temperatures with that potential for clouds being a potential thorn-in-the-side.

Also note that, for example, the GFS has fluctuated rather vastly in each and every model run for the period beyond Sunday night. Public weather forecasts are unlikely to change (or will remain relatively constant) on TV despite the rather significant fluctuations and differences in the various model solutions for this time period. They, as well as I in the case of today's predicament, will essentially remain mute until a greater level of confidence is reached. For kicks though, and for example, just watch The Weather Channel today and tomorrow to see what is shown in the extended period. I noticed this morning it is basically a "CYA"...showing thunder for Wednesday and Thursday. Unlikely. For now though, one of those two days does appear will be wet if nothing else. Could it be delayed even more, AND, will it ever thunder at all? Rain possibly, yes (sometime mid-late week), Thunder though? Even bigger question mark. But again, nothing is pointing toward a severe weather event. At worst, a strong storm or two.

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