"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Word of the Storm Season - "Hype"

Broad scale rotation under a developing thunderstorm on Tuesday. This storm is being viewed near the Beach from the SSE in Cape Canaveral looking toward the North Atlantic Ave / A1A Triangle Area . The white colored clouds near the top were moving from left to right, while the dark core contained recurrently developing updrafts tags which kept appearing from behind the taller tree to the right in this image 

Believe that a sort of Shear Funnel Cloud (at a minimum) formed yesterday not as a result of the area pictured above, but of one that followed this one as it moved off to the ENE. The second area of similar nature developed under outflow from this area as it moved away..and internal mechanisms drove wind speed shear (but light) such a way to form a substantial but very brief funnel cloud. As I stood out there, the sound took on that of a rushing ocean it then moved toward the North and toward this formation above. Officially, the event was not recognized as a funnel cloud in print. Immediately pictured below (from video) is what appeared from over my head (to the left of the palm tree)...moments earlier, it sounded like the sea shore was immediately upon myself.  It was just as much what was HEARD as it was that which was SEEN. 


TODAY: Not a whole lot to say for today. The same theme as the past two days applies. That being, rain can occur wherever extensive cloud cover does not take over, or where cloud breaks can occur prior to 5pm.

That being said, the only impetus to create showers/storms is a slightly unstable atmosphere and a developing but light east coast sea breeze. Where the bigger cloud breaks occur, which currently is far SE Florida and near I-4, thunderstorms can form, although they could form elsewhere, time permitting for cloud breaks. Otherwise, the 700mb trough axis sank a bit south overnight (it was over Central yesterday). Models earlier indicated it would lift back to central, but so far that has yet to be seen.

The red line is the forecast position on the RUC earlier for the trough axis. However, the trend I believe is for it to become more ill defined than previously thought. Suspect it might break off into the Gulf off the SW Florida coast, with the remaining boundary becoming more inactive with time. Note the Jet Circulation. Dry air encompasses that region in Northern Gulf. These two components have been presented for potentially a reason working into the weekend and next week (see "Tropics"). 
Divergence is occurring further from shore today, having less enhancing effect on storm development today. Additionally, the winds are spreading mid-high level clouds across the South Half of the State. Thunder could occur most anywhere, but most likely will occur inland from the sea breeze and north of the Beach Line. Other areas of thunder could occur over far SE Florida. In between, renegade showers can form most any time, mostly near the 700mb trough axis, although there to...cloudiness might be the rule. Best spot for thunder in orange.

BEYOND: It looks like rain chances will decrease going into the Weekend as 'something' attempts to get more organized in the Gulf of Mexico...with little in triggering mechanisms and no focal points, the most preferred area by Friday should be along the Central interior and west toward much of South Florida, mainly west side.

TROPICS: What tangled webs do models foretell?   Plenty.  What will likely be Hurricane Katia (if not already) is forecast by long range models to miss the U.S. because of a trough of low pressure which is forecast to be in place just east of the east coast extending into Florida by the time the storm arrives. However, the storm has to curve more toward the NW with time during the next 3 days or so first....

Thus, we'll cross that bridge if need be when the time arrives. So far, it appears the biggest impact would be to Bermuda, but that to can change. 

What is of greater interest is what can be happening in the Gulf in the meantime.  Been preaching to deaf ears it seems about this one for some time now..perhaps it will finally be Reckoning Day . Hype this.

The GFS for 3 consecutive runs has developed a hearty low pressure area anywhere between the SW Gulf toward the Texas Coast all the way over toward Louisiana. At this time, if that is to occur, it would be because of the mid-level cut off 700mb trough remnant, combining with that persistent area of reoccurring thunderstorms off the Florida SW Coast (pictured above), combined with another area of low pressure in the western Carribean.  Further enhanced by the jet circulation is some form as shown in the previous image above.

If a low does develop per the GFS it would be south of Louisiana in general. It could hang out in that location for quite some time until it has reason to move. Do not believe it will have much of an impact anywhere west of the  Mississippi River, although coastal showers and thunder is not completely to be ruled out in the interim as far as Texas.  For three runs, the GFS has this organized area of low pressure meander until the next continental trough comes along to the which point the low is forced NE ward into Florida somewhere along the NW coast.  Hype this.

If this were to occur, we'd be looking at either a Sub-Tropical Storm Lee..or perhaps a Neutercane Named "Lee"...which per chance is a name that can be used for both males and females. (the term Neutercane was discontinued for the very reason that it sounded sexist, as if Hurricanes have a gender anyway.) That argument would hold water if we:
  A) called them Her-icanes, Sheicanes, He-icanes, or Himicanes as the list is run down each season.; or  B) gave them non-sexist names to begin with like like Giggles, Scratchy, Boomer, or Pumpkin. Hype this.

At this point, it should be sub tropical if the GFS is to be believed, because: 1) it would form off a remnant low pressure trough from the mid-level 2) It could also form as a hybrid off a mesoscale convective complex like that off SW Florida, or 3) it could form along that deformation zone shown in that image above the immediate one above; and lastly 4) it would have jet stream level winds running through it...a big no no for the purest Hurricane at heart. Hype this.


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