"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, December 7, 2015

Seasonally Benign Through Wednesday - "Dank Day" Today?

Sunday Morning

TODAY: Inverted trough has formed off the east coast as expected, only a bit further east than expected. The net effect per surface observations across the state is northerly to even NNW-NW winds in many locations. Meanwhile, high pressure is building east and north from the SW Gulf of Mexico toward Southern Georgia. 

The question today will be, how long will these conditions persist after mid-morning ? Conditions typical to this morning at this time of year have been known in the past to persist well beyond what would be considered 'good behavior' - meaning, all day as opposed to only for the morning hours;   therefore, wouldn't be surprised IF the conditions remained rather 'dank' especially from near eastern portions of Central Brevard County (north of Patrick AFB) all the way north toward JAX much of the day which would mean afternoon highs might never really rise much out of the upper 60Fs (especially Volusia and Flagler and north, perhaps even north of Cocoa Beach).

KSC area profilers are showing that the northerly winds are but very shallow in depth being overrun with lighter SW winds less than 3000 ft above the ground. This kind of 'mixing' could tend to be self-perpetuating in regard to cloud cover - after sunrise meaning flat out - 'tough call ' today on the cloud cover. 

Even a break of full sun could only serve to fuel more cloudy cover just an hour later.

Image showing Northerly wind below 3200 ft and SW wind above

Otherwise, areas well inland and south might warm efficiently though there is cloud cover South Florida and persist rainfall over the Keys (which has totaled  up to nearly 10 inches since Thursday and  where it is still raining in some locations this morning).

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: Both mornings look similar with the warmest location to be from near Canaveral and south along A1A through the Keys with a very sharp temperature gradient between barrier island locations toward I95 and more so to western side of Orlando south toward Punta Gorda and north and along I-4.  

Even 'if" the "dank day early winter syndrome' persists today (especially near the coast) the upside is.... "little change over night for those same locations " in regard to temperature. 

Where the temperature might only fall a few degrees at the coast if the clouds do indeed persist today and even if they do not , inland locations will fall much more as weak low pressure from the offshore trough moves away and the broad high pressure area mentioned earlier slides east and north of the state ushering in cooler air southward from the continental land mass to the north.

Lows in the mid  50Fs along to west of  I-95 and even cooler toward the west side of the MCO area (for example) while the immediate coast remains in the 60Fs south of the Cape. Afternoon highs seasonably in the lower 70Fs 

(*** assuming this pattern does not over-extend itself into Tuesday)

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The high pressure area is quite large as it works north and joins with the geographically induced Appalachian Ridge axis as it moves east and eventually flattens out over Friday into Saturday. Winds will become NE to eventually easterly to even Southeast. The bigger warming trend notable looks to be either Thursday or Friday where upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs return to most areas (if not sooner parts of South Central and South Florida).

RAIN CHANCES: The only true chances of rainfall (measurable) to show up in guidance occurs from Vero or Ft. Pierce and south this week - otherwise, most areas outside of a 'misty condition' should remain dry until at least Saturday. No 'cold' air is still yet shown for the state until the 18th - 21st time frame - well beyond guidance reliability.

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