There's the culprit up there by Nova Scotia (see image). The low exists in the mid through upper levels - up to jet stream level..and it is the flow around the "what seems to be a permanent fixture" that is giving us this very cool/cold weather. Things become less clear and vary quite a bit more as one works down to the ground as far as low and high pressure systems goes...but that is the overall predominant cause of our temperatures of late. Will it move out soon? Not for about 11 days. And as such, the mostly progressive pattern we've been in has been stifled...any storm systems to approach this area in the next 10 days won't be coming out of the Gulf Of Mexico but rather from a much drier continental direction.
Pretty chilly start to the day, but not as bad as was thought it would be. Most areas were in the mid-upper 30s west of the rivers, but Canaveral only got down to 42. Slight warming trend today with a very light north wind with a high predominantly on the high side of the mid-50s...around 57-58 area wide. Occasional high cirrus clouds will be abundant earlier in the day...but could very well decrease as we work toward noon and thereafter. A great day for the "races" in Daytona...but bring your Snuggie...or preferably, a coat. Wind won't be a factor today..and in fact it could be almost downright calm at sunset.
TONIGHT: Not as cold as last night, but as mentioned yesterday the extreme interior will still be pretty darned cold. The immediate coast from Canaveral and south and east of US1 couldmanage a 48 tonight...but well inland (and more toward the west side of the state) 35-40 or is much more likely.
MONDAY: Warmest day until next weekend, sad as it is. After a pretty cool but tolerable morning the temperature will be on the rebound as we work toward noon. Looking for a high tomorrow around 67 degrees with increasing high clouds ahead of the next cold front late in the afternoon...winds going from very light to a good 12-18mph out of the SW by shortly after noon time. Not bad really. At least it won't be a dank, ocean wind tomorrow...heck, if we could eke out enough sunlight we could be flirting with 70...but unlikely any where north of Sebastian.
MONDAY NIGHT: Looks like the cold front will be stretched diagonally across the state from near Jacksonville - Ocala - Brooksille around 6-7pm. By this time it will assuredly be pretty cloudy...but who cares...it'll be dark anyway and we have a new moon (very close to it anyway) so there's nothing to see. Rain? Chances are we'll be seeing a 20 or 30% figure for rain chances popping up in the media..but I'd give it no more than 10%..and that might be generous. Not expecting any accumulations even if it does.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will have gone through by sunrise with rapidly clearing skies (if they aren't already clear at sunrise). Temperature will be very cool to cold throughout the period, but nothing out of the norm (per this winter...but below what one would normally expect this time of year..on average). Averages are just that though...averages. That implies that sometimes it's warmer..sometimes it's colder. Just so happens to be that it's been the 'Sometimes Colder" option a LOT this winter. Overall, coastal lows in the low-mid 40s with highs in the mid-upper 50s...very slowly warming toward next weekend. Dry throughout the week and into the weekend.
BUT HOLD ON....the end of the tunnel is looking more likely to be in sight. By February 24th the true end of the tunnel might be reached. At least as we work toward March. But things also get much more interesting...our next true shot of a good rain, if it ever gets here, could be in the form of potentially severe weather. That is SO far out from now though...but indications at least are that the solid freezing line could be up into Tennessee if not further north as we work into the last week of February. Given we'll be approaching March by then...any cold spell will be short lived.