"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Isolated Heavy Downpours Interior Later Today

Early Evening Storms Align West of US1 as seen from Cocoa Beach Friday Evening
TODAY: Not a whole lot different in the evolution of how storms are forming today and where the 'peak of activity' might eventually end up occurring today. West coast activity , like yesterday, off to an early start. Expect this activity will send outflows toward the east and those will eventually meet with the east coast sea breeze near to just east of the north/south spine of the state (especially from Osceola County and north) late this afternoon.   In general the image below is a broad brush way of looking at it but not exclusively so. A few isolated large rainfall accumulations are possible due to very slow to non-existent actually storm motion over some interior locations. 

SUNDAY: A thin moisture slot aligned northeast so southwest is approaching Florida from the east. The main 'impacts' from this will be a small increase in rain chances from mostly Brevard County southward and then to the west as the day progresses. Coastal Brevard might see a shower or so in the area (for a change) sometime mid-late morning through early afternoon as well as all points south with better chances of thunder to the west and south of East Central later in the day.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: A large tropical wave like feature mentioned in the blog post several days ago to approach 'early next week' is still on the way but is not much expected at this point to affect but the Southern Third of the state. It's still quite a way off however and as a result impacts in regard to increased rainfall chances and times of them are still too far off to worth deliberating over for today . But in any case, the Monday time frame looks to be a day hostile to rain as dry air is expected to precede that actual tropical air mass that is approaching the state (which is typical). 

Rain showers 'might' affect anywhere along the east coast as soon as Tuesday sometime from Central Brevard (mainly ) and south but again timing is an issue as well as extent of any chances of rainfall. The trend lately is to take the bulk of the moisture too far south to have any far-reaching benefits to the sensible weather of recent days for the far east side of Florida north of Ft Pierce up to Ormond Beach. In other words, so far it appears that rain chances remain slim pickins as far as 'normal July weather' is concerned . Considering July is about over it's now a matter if what part of the state (even many interior locations) will fare any better in the first week of August. 

So far long range guidance shows mainly only some tropical waves at best from time to time being the nearly sole source of anything other than widely scattered activity to only isolated on other days. GFS has been hinting that a frontal boundary will make it well south toward the state and act as a source of moisture convergence late next week, but if so that would be for areas north of I4 (if even that).

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Sunday, July 24, 2016

Chance of 'Strong to Marginally Severe" Storms (Mainly South of I-4)

Towering "Morning Cloud" Hovers Over the Coast - Friday Morning

TODAY Tropical Upper level Tropospheric Trough  (TUTT) Low is slowly shifting east to west 'well aloft' around 30,000 feet accompanied by a tongue of dry air in the mid-levels.  Remarkable PWAT on the KSC sounding this morning down to a rather 'astonishing' 1.09" which is quite low for July. However, if guidance has any credence this measurement was taken at the utterly driest point in time almost possible of the day in regard to the placement of the TUTT low. Some recovery should be going on during the course of the day even as I right with the 'anticipation' we might see a recovery back to not quite July 'normals' in some locations by late afternoon. Will watch for activity across Southeast Florida early on send outflows and mergers both north and west during early/mid afternoon prior to sea breezes setting up and moving inland so that the better clashing of boundaries would occur over parts of Central Florida.

With less early day activities..the peak of activity and the affect of the dry air aloft combined with colder upper level temperatures 'might' result in some strong/marginally severe storms come late afternoon especially interior parts of SW Florida northward toward Polk/Osceola/Okeechobee Counties possible into southern Lake County and even toward Orange/Seminole; but the better chances will be Central Osceola/Polk. The latest NAM is hitting hard on eastern Osceola oddly. There is also a chance some showers might be able to work into the Cape area off the ocean in association with 'said set up' though chance is quite low and remote.  One thing that would preclude any strong or even severe storms today is that guidance implies the pocket of cold air aloft might start to fill in with warmer air (aloft) as the day progresses which would put the breaks of strong storms as well as storm coverage altogether.

Sum total, today is an 'odd ball day at the park' in regard to the summer routine.

MONDAY:  Low will have moved west of the state and lifted north a bit. This will put a brake temporarily on the pattern that has been in place since the 3rd of July even (!) of easterly flow favoring the west and central portions (mostly).. namely though, leaving out the Barrier Islands of Brevard south toward the immediate beaches near Vero of the big rainfall scores. 

Chance of showers mainly but thunder possible 'sometime ' from mid-morning to as late as early to mid-afternoon along the east coast south of I-4 if the GFS holds correct (though other guidance has not been showing this chance will ride with it). In image above  activity now near the western Bahamas might be what will work into East Central sometime tomorrow. The upper low appears to be moving a bit slower than earlier models were showing and should that motion continue timing and placement both of this low is what might end up being the big factor tomorrow in regard to the better rain chance location as well as when that will be.

BEYOND:  Low confidence forecast but appears a  return to low coverage of activity, mainly interior with a few spurious times of coastal early morning showers of unknown days since timing of moisture shots remains nearly impossible to forecast beyond a day or two.

GFS implies a significant tropical wave to approach Florida the end of next weekend toward Monday..that will have to be watched as again, same issue applies. 

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Sunday, July 10, 2016

"Interior" Iso-Strong to Pulse Severe Storm(s) Possible after 5PM

SUNDAY MORNING Living Up to It's Name - Cocoa Beach Pier
TODAY: Not much change from yesterday overall so not much need to go into details as outlined in previous post.  

Late morning Cape Sounding shows 700mb/500mb temps running around 9C/-7.5C respectively with an extensive dry layer in the mid-levels. 

This drier layer should be able to fill in a bit after daytime heating sets the sea-breeze wheels in motion heading for a moisture convergence clash later today in the presence of moderate surface based instability.

 Latest satellite animation shows an 'apparent region' which might be considered an overall 'favorable zone' as shown based on 'eye ball extrapolation' (only).

  Steering today is a tad bit stronger from west to east north of Sebastian Inlet than previous days; however, given the drier air in mid levels and seeing how there iso other triggers aloft apart from localized mesoscale boundaries ,  storms could rapidly shoot up and just as quickly wane sending outflow boundaries in every which-way making for the firing up of another storm up to 60 miles from its parent source region. Therefore, exactly 'where any one storm will go' is nearly impossible to say. Central to East Central seems to be the favored spot by model consensus with a secondary area across SW Florida (not depicted)  

MONDAY: This day guidance shows a significant decrease of any activity but won't buy into it for now so will ride with persistence of last two days though steering might come closer to non-existent as surface to mid level Atlantic ridge axis lifts to Central Florida, meaning, any chances for the coast to see any rainfall at all might be completely out.

TUESDAY: GFS continues to show a rather random patch of moisture lifting north slowly around the ridge from   South Florida bringing increased rain chances for all regions south of I-4. Time will tell, and chances are it's over done but continuing to watch as GFS has been consistent in this regard. Coasts could use some rain south of DAB.

BEYOND: Ridge axis remains across Central-North Central with very light to non-existent steering winds and colder air aloft if the GFS guidance holds any credibility. Continued isolated activity late day...with iso-strong always a possibility. Other wise, remaining quite warm inland but with sea breezes initiating sooner in the day for less warm than of late in the areas within 5-10 miles of the coasts.

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Saturday, July 9, 2016

Chance of Isolated Showers - Early Afternoon / Strong Storm - Early Evening

"Warm Start to the Weekend - Cocoa Beach"
TODAY: Very little change from past few days over all. Temperature aloft at 500mb is a bit cold though but with continued warm temperatures surface into the mid levels with 'less than average' overall moisture content through the column. 

Satellite interpretation appears to hint at three potential boundaries laying dormant at time as will be depicted in the image below by the white dashed lines, and have not determined if those perhaps won't mix out during late morning into early afternoon heating. 

Regardless, things appear to be on track for another day similar to yesterday. The 4KM NAM, latest RAP, and HRRR are all showing 'scattered showers and storms' beginning as soon as late morning but suspect they might be over-down.  The 4KM NAM shows several respectable outflow boundaries from mid-afternoon activity all playing havoc by late afternoon -early evening as to where a strong storm would form, but the HRRR 'implies' it would be most likely 'somewhere Central / South Central ".

Given that there might be some boundaries across the Central and Southern Portions of the state (see below), sea breeze/lake breezes will form and see no strong reason why that wouldn't be the case given the trend of the past 2-3 days (the past two days have both seen a severe thunderstorm warning 'somewhere across the state') would ride with persistence for yet again a chance of a strong storm with small hail and/or winds gusting to 45 mph or more. 

Again though, most areas will not see rain today - but where it does rain it could be briefly  heavy. The biggest hazard as usual would be frequent to excessive lightning, mainly toward  6pm over the interior.

Image below shows storm near Lake 'Toho" which produced a highly visible funnel cloud on Friday.)

White dashed lines show possible boundaries which 'might' aid to ignite showers earlier today

SUNDAY-MONDAY: For now without much change being indicated until maybe late Monday or Monday night would go with persistence and call for 'similar in nature' type activity next two days.

TUESDAY: Indications the surface ridge across mainly South Central might lift north introduces a pattern change. GFS insists on increased chance of showers mainly near the east coast perhaps morning to mid-morning Tuesday moving inland during the day related to an inverted coastal trough lifting northward from the SE Florida coastal region (fingers crossed for the beach zones) but too far out in time , though it has been quite consistent on the possibility. 

Beyond Tuesday it looks more like a 'chances of showers near the coast in early morning hours migrating inland and toward the west coast late day' for several days with variations in that theme fora solid week. Any morning activity if so, very isolated.

Next 'significant'' over all change in the scheme of things is not even being hinted at until around the July 22nd time frame - well out of reach of reason and reason to rely on.

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Monday, July 4, 2016

Chance of Isolated Stronger Storm Mainly Interior South Central - South: No Bacon Lovers

Towering Rain and Thunderstorms over the Banana River and Merritt Island
Sunday sent Down Lightning   within 1 1/2 miles of  beach goers in broad day light
TODAY: Slight chance of a few isolated strong storms mainly South and South Central Portions of the state. 

Conditions are a bit different today from yesterday. Per morning KSC sounding the Covenctive Temperature is 88F with 500mb temps running about 1-2 degrees cooler than past days increasing mid level lapse rates but barely. 700MB was at 10C which is quite warm. Suspect earlier iniation will stabilize those areas prior to sea breeze convergence. Activity most likely to be 'strong' would be from the effective Lake-Sea Breeze boundary mergers (South Florida) where coldest air aloft reside and across parts of Central later in the day when outflow boundaries combine with sea breeze/lake breeze convergences into parts of South Central mainly near to south of I-4.

Greatest threat as usual is dangerous cloud to ground (CG) lightning that occurs outside of (ahead or behind) the main precip cores like as what was occurring yesterday along the beaches of Central/North Brevard county. 

In the image above lightning was occurring within 1- 1 1/2 miles of beach goers while the sun was still blazing. Not a pleasant thought should a random bolt find it's way to unsuspecting sun bathers - someone could have received more than a 'sun burn'. in that situation.

Apart from the lightning threat, chance of strong wind gusts near the heaviest storms especially over the interior of South Florida and later in the day Eastern to Central parts of South Central where it is also cooler aloft but not as cool as over South Florida.

One difference today from yesterday is that the lower levels of the atmosphere yesterday had uniformly S-SSW winds from surface through the next 6000 ft up  the column which was  nearly parallel to the prevailing SSE-SE winds of the sea breeze and a bit stronger than today preventing what could have been better low level convergence to occur along surface boundaries. Those winds might not be quite as strong today, but do no have access to KSC Profiler data this morning to see if that is the case again.   Additionally, the KSC sounding came in late yesterday with a a convective temperature of 95F which might have explained why all the activity diminished so rapidly late day outside of where the best boundary mergers were still occurring. Cannot say if all that will be the case again today.

TUESDAY:  As usual, day by day situation at hand - though it appears tomorrow things will begin to wain both in coverage and intensity as the surface Atlantic ridge axis works to Central Florida with less overall atmospheric moisture to work with coupled with warmer air aloft. This leads to more isolated late day activity over the interior portions of the state as well as more heat from less cloud cover and rain cooled air. Expecting solid July temperatures in the mid 90Fs in many locations away from the modifying  effects of the afternoon sea breezes.

BEYOND: Not much change. if any. foreseen so far for many days to come - too far out in time to bother speculating over at this point.

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