"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

"Colder Wednesday and Into The Weekend: Beyond?"

Cold Front to Descend Upon Central and South Florida Tonight,
"Winter Returns..Again"
TODAY: A cold front as of late morning is positioned as shown above over far NW Florida which will continue its southward plunge into Central Florida today and tonight and eventually through South Florida after midnight. There appears to be two prefrontal troughs of low intensity, like ripples before a wave,  ahead of the true boundary. The first could generate showers over Central Florida (mainly North Central) near I-4 much later today after 2pm through 6pm, which could enter  Dead Central, Central Direct, or the Latitudinal Center Line...however one wants to put it as well, but chances are better for some increasing cloud coverage . Though it is not breezy as of typing time, we could see it getting much breezier today from around 1pm - sunset and beyond.  The front will be in that location (Dead Central) near  10pm  after which time a wind shift from west-southwest or west to WNW-NW will gradually occur with increasingly dry and colder air and clearing skies being the sure sign of the front's passage accompanied by breezy conditions.

WEDNESDAY: Dry and 'cold' with a high in the lower 50Fs, very dry after midday   and decreasing wind as the day progresses under mainly sunny conditions. Temperatures will drop rapidly toward and after sunset Wednesday night as by then the driest air will be in place with little moisture to restrain heat escaping back into the atmosphere under already cooled grounds.

THURSDAY: Much colder in the morning and with little wind and a chance of inland frosts and maybe some freezing temperatures near and north of I-4. Only the A1A strip mainly Canaveral and south could get by without really noticing this colder morning of the two. A bit warmer in the afternoon with a high in the mid-upper 50Fs. (Note: in all regards colder temperatures the further north one goes from Dead Central, warmer as one heads to South Florida ). On Thursday night it appears another front could go through near midnight, therefore:...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Despite what i've seen advertised of late on media (which is not very often), it could end up being that FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY , one or some of those mornings, could yet be the coldest beyond even Thursday morning. The 'Polar Vortex" or what was referred to here in previous years as the James Bay Low (as it ends up) due to its proximity near or directly over James Bay,  combined with a relentless ridge over the far Western U.S remains in the lock-n-load position for intrusive outbursts of cold discontent, though not angry enough to bring  "the Roaring 20Fs" back to Central Florida for the most part, only on the calm and pristinely still silent mornings such as what occurred a few mornings ago in isolated select areas.

THEREFORE: Today is the warmest day the state in general will be caressing through the next 7-10 days for the most part. The GFS has been showing 'something' happening around the 26-28th time frame for over a week and now as that time approaches and model reliability one would hope would start to enter the picture approaches, the scene continues to change, but it is that time frame that appears to be the make or break point regarding how long the nonsensical will continue. Only a few days ago through early yesterday the end of winter appeared to be coming just in time for February, but the last two runs of the GFS are now spelling a different story. No significantly outrageous cold spells are being shown for Florida, just the normal-below normal, or that is to say only more of the same of what we've been experiencing which is below 'normal' either on the high temperature or low temperature end.

Florida Freeze around 1977. Image was taken late in the afternoon this day in January. See this link for January 18-19, 1977

There is a bit of a misnomer when it comes to 'normal' as seldom is  both the daytime 'normal high' and morning 'normal low' ever experienced on the same day over Florida in the true winter time frame.    For example, yesterday the highs were very close to 'normal' but the lows were at least 10F degrees below normal. In other cases, the reverse can be true and this is not accounting for cloud coverage days which further muddies the winter waters. Only when 'normalized' out and all averages taken into account over many many years of record keeping can the curve by generalized enough to come upon a new range of 'Normal", which is a bit misleading but 'generally helpful' in some regards for other reasons in no uncertain terms over an over-generalized climatological perspective which in another way tells us nothing if that makes any sense.

On this day last year the blog read : "In Summary: Although there are some changes in store, there is nothing significant in the upcoming week in regard to big rains or cold temperatures outside of what we've been experiencing the past 10 days. The trend continues until around the last 2 or 3 days of the month which is well beyond model reliability anyway. One could say, the point in making a blog post today is that there is no point in writing one when push comes to shove, other than to note that no big cold blasts or heavy storms are foreseen for quite some time in the current pattern (s) on tap "

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