"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, April 9, 2018

Showers-Thunder Today / 'Strong Storms' Tuesday?

The APRIL FOOL'S DAY 'Tornado' - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cool front that had passed south into far South Central Florida Sunday has lifted back north as 'warm front' across Central around sunrise and is now up across North Florida lifting toward the Florida/Georgia border. As a result, the cool northeast wind of yesterday has become a warm south to south southwest wind by late morning, Monday.

Latest short term guidance shows ample low level instability for thunderstorms today however moisture is rather limited  across parts of South/South Central, such as one gets further south toward Okeechobee / St Lucie Counties.  Currently a line of showers is beaded out across the state with the retreating warm front, as noticeable in this visible satellite image below.

Given current forecast trends and what is shown for instability and wind aloft, might need to watch that, despite 15kts of a west wind at 2000-3000 ft above ground level (AGL), if a sea breeze won't be able to develop along the east coast south of the Cape to South Florida. That would act as a low level convergence mechanism which might truly be needed for additional lift in the absence of any other kind of boundary today that could produce ' lightning '.

Though some guidance shows showers developing across East Central Florida by mid-afternoon, it is always possible, the better chance of thunder would be "IF" a sea breeze can  indeed from, which would help result in low level lift. 

Otherwise, mainly showers would be the call of the day. 

A second area to watch would if the sea breeze can form and combine with the Lake Okeechobee shadow which could result in a good storm or two somewhere around St. Lucie or Martin County.

TUESDAY: This day is the more 'interesting' day of the two. 

Colder air  and stronger wind aloft will be present . Instability might be able to be ample enough mainly south of a line running from New Smyrna Beach to Brooksville. The region just south of there to a line north of a line running from near Vero Beach on the east coast to Sarasota on the west coast might be the best region to watch for 'possibly' stronger storms tomorrow though at this time there has been no 'Official Declarations'' from the 'powers that be' at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to state as such.

Either way, rain chances look to be a little bit better bet tomorrow though even so, not every one will see rain tomorrow, or even today. We could use the rain   given the dry season we are in with the wet season still nearly 2 months away.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: Very progressive pattern across the nation's mid country with quick over turning of air masses from warm to cold and back again. The big headline weatherwise might end up being snow in Eastern Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin region (the northern plains). ..with near blizzard conditions (?). Though that chance is still uncertain.

 Florida will be beguilingly quiet with seasonal temperatures.

SUNDAY: ....HOWEVER - the recent trends are for a very deep and potent full latitudinal trough from Southern Canada well into the GULF might be making the dig toward the east coast toward the Second half of next weekend. The time frame currently being watched for is Sunday for a QLCS type squall line to move across the state during the day...with the threat of strong wind gusts.

This is still way out in the future however, and at this point is nothing other than an assumption based in but a few hints of information. Thus, easily subject to change/re-interpretation.

NEXT WEEK: The other fly in the ointment even out further is in the temperature forecast. If the trend continues, we can expect to need to break out the jackets and sweater for a few days next week with lows in the 50FS and breezy conditions by next Tuesday into Wednesday. Cool yes, but only briefly.

No comments: