"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, December 7, 2012

Potential for Significant Weather Pattern Changes Approaches

There was some widespread fog early today, as can be seen mostly where the yellow line is, but which is now clearing in varying degrees early this afternoon. Some showers possibly today mainly in the green areas but not limited strictly to those areas  

TODAY: Much like yesterday, with very light winds and highs in the mid-upper 70Fs near the beaches and a few degrees warmer away from the coast. Outside of potential clouds and showers as shown above (some is now occurring near and north of West Palm)...quite pleasant.  Otherwise, would expect that tonight we may again see fog as surface winds will be bringing in continued more warm and moist air from the SSE direction.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: A frontal boundary will be gathering shape over the Central Plains and shifting toward the east coast over the weekend into Monday. Until then, really not much change in store with continued light winds, possible showers  mainly South Half until Monday just about any where at anytime but more likely near the coast over night and inland during the day. Weekend will be quite kind other than areas of cloud cover and some showers as noted, sparse.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: The Southern Branch and Northern Branch Jet Streams per the GFS appear will be phasing or coming together the next few days with a larger system pulling south from the Pacific Northwest next week. In turn, the GFS poises the 'by then phased jet streams' to take a hard right to the south into the Deep South toward Florida.

Early portion of Forecast Extended time frame of Jet Stream Winds
By Monday a cold front could be approaching, with some thunder possible along and north of I-4, but so far due to the forecast jet stream position it appears it would be mainly rain showers. Tuesday and into Wednesday shows a much greater chance of thunderstorms potentially as the left exit region of the jet stream pulls out toward the Northeast creating additional lift. Exactly how quickly the associated frontal boundary moves south from Central into South Florida is sketchy with guidance varying anywhere from Wednesday afternoon to as much as nearly 24 hours later. In any case, the period from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will only be phase 1 of what could be 2 more fronts (potentially more active) in the following 7-10 days as well.

TEMPERATURES: When  'said front' eventually  goes through (it could stall near Central Tuesday for a good 24 hours), the temperature shift is nothing beyond what we've already experienced. The GFS appears to suggest this first front might get well south of the peninsula but then get lifted back north 3 -4 days later as yet another storm system develops somewhere near the Northern Gulf or along the Gulf coast 'somewhere'. 

Another potential rainmaker moves through and then this same scenario repeats itself yet again 3 days later. Granted, this is well out in time, but there has been quite a bit of consistency in the overall occurrence of said events with  timing variations running vastly different from model run to model run as would be expected so far down the line from now.  

Overall, it looks like a big change in the pattern is in store which will become most noticeable Monday and Tuesday afternoons as winds during the day become SW rather than from off the ocean, and afternoon highs approach the low-mid 80Fs. 

STORMS: I would not be surprised if we will need to  be watching for one if not two severe weather potential days coming between the 11th and the 18th.

===================Random  Events of Note =============
This year, we also have lights of a celestial kind. The intense Geminid meteor shower begins at 8:00 P.M. on the night of the 13th and, thanks to a moonless night, will fill the sky undiminished by lunar light

The earliest winter since 1896 arrives with the Winter Solstice at 6:12 A.M. (EST) on the 21st. Chanukah begins  at sundown this Saturday.

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