"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Isolated Large Rainfall Totals - Even a Strong Storm or Two Possible into Mid Evening

Weekend Starts out with Baby Blues and Pinks at Cocoa Beach Pier
TODAY: Very little change 'overall' in scheme of things from past two days. Atmospheric moisture on the KSC sounding came in a bit higher than expected, instability a  bit higher as well, with temperatures aloft a bit cooler even yet still and a convective temperature of only 87F (easily attainable today) with zero cap. 

All things consider if nothing else were to change since that 6AM sounding (which might be a big assumption) and that were to be representative of a fairly large area of Eastern Portions of Central toward South Central (even South) all things spell out then to thunderstorm coverage  pretty well written in for today for this area (mainly south of I-4 and along to east of  I75 toward I-95.

Storm motion on the other hand again is just barely above a drift toward the east at about 5-8 mph which would not overcome a stronger seabreeze. Regardless, once boundaries and outflows get set up from lake breezes and even smaller early day showers which tend to disrupt   weak low level wind  fields, today looks like another 'just about anything goes' type of day.

Even last evening storms went up along the East Central Coast while the east coast sea breeze itself was on the approach to the west coast (that is, well behind the east coast sea breeze). That has been the going fad the past 4 days in a row so will not stray from the pattern, not to say that the same will happen again today though despite that late evening storm fests of the past 4 evenings between the Cape south toward St Lucie County.  Will it be again? 

Otherwise, swell seems to be dying down just a bit from yesterday while the GFS of a few days ago showed the peak of the swell from Karl would be the weekend this does not appear to be the case based on the morning surf check. Either way, rip tides a situation to be of concern for beach goers over such a fine weekend for late September with highs in the lower 90Fs once again inland.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: These two days look like a variation of the same theme, though Sunday or both days might have a slight decrease in activity we'll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, a frontal boundary that has already cleared the Rockies is moving east but greatly impeded by high pressure to the east of it. Regardless, the upper level support will gain reinforcements allowing the system to find its way into the Deep South toward at least Central Georgia by Tuesday slowly but surely.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days look like there could be an uptick in rain chances with again strong storms possible with colder air aloft and better westerly steering currents to the ENE-NE (toward the east coast).  Temperatures on these days might not get as warm as a result of increased cloud cover earlier in the day.

LONGER RANGE: Already eyes on next  tropical system if it comes about, to be Matthew. The GFS is spelling out Gloom and Doom (Cat 3 or 4) Hurricane making landfall somewhere between Louisiana to the Central  panhandle of Florida in several runs ; however, so far it's the 'out-liar' for the time being. Other guidance shows a system running into Mexico of much less strength. 

Regardless, the frontal boundary in question for the time being appears will be bridged over by high pressure aloft and wash out accompanied by a  "deepening  moisture  laden easterly enhanced flow" which could spell for rain chance increases along the east coast from JAX south to Brevard come latter portions of next week whence  what might be 'Matthew' by that time would still be well out in the far Eastern Caribbean at best. Much to watch for...and not necessarily that any of the just aforementioned will even materialize.

Regardless, some interesting weather changes or events might be in the stock pile for the pickins' in days ahead.

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