"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Are "Winter Like" Conditions Systematically Oozing In Through Next Week?

Today's Broad, Albeit Generous, Brush of where precipitation could fall. The best chances appear to be toward the interior north late afternoon through mid-evening. Sprinkles could occur within the yellows. Nothing beats color coded weather. Wish it was that simple.

TODAY: High pressure off SE Georgia and the Carolinas eventually elongates eastward into the Atlantic to be replaced by ESE-SE flow through late evening, becoming SSW-SW prior to sunrise Wednesday. A potent cold front related complex of three dimensional ferocity will rage across the entire Deep South today into the evening, with possible supercell (rotating) thunderstorms ahead of and imbedded within a Quasi-Linear (as opposed to completely linear) Squall line could   be on the menu of this smorgasbord containing severe category wind gusts as well as hail in association with the cold front which will approach Florida tomorrow.

Meanwhile back on the farm, looks like a good day for bailing hay with summer like clouds across the state, with the greatest concentration of clouds  near the east coast of South Central and north, eventually to make a showing all interiors by early afternoon. A few sprinkles near the coast from Brevard and north (South of I-4) with a better chance of showers near and north of I-4 to possibly St. Augustine by late day. Although Central is in sufficient moisture for showers or nearly so, much of it is being advected out of the area before showers can form. Central is the Source region for regions further north where better convergence can occur along a line running from Tampa, Ocala, toward Daytona and north. Best convergence should be over the interior late in the day through mid evening  in  proximity of that  green box traced out in the image above.   

TONIGHT: Cold front approaches the western Panhandle. Wind overnight becomes SW toward midnight and beyond. Partly cloudy in spots, becoming almost cloudy north. Best chances for fog tonight seem to be interior South Central (South of Orlando) and all of South Florida where winds will be lighter. Coolest temperatures will be away from any clouds which should be South Central, with lows in the lower 60Fs. Warmer further north under the increasing cloud blanket, and further South per common logic.

WEDNESDAY: Main point to observe is that the atmospheric moisture ribbon associated with the front is quite broad. Moisture both precedes and follows the boundary, so clouds could be on the increase from north to south during the late morning and through the afternoon. Winds from the WSW-SW all day, but cloud cover comes with the moisture, so afternoon highs across Central and North Central will unlikely be as warm as they could be otherwise, but South Florida (where the fog will be earlier), has a better bet of the warmest pockets. Highs most areas reach the lower 80Fs south of I-4 ..with some mid-80Fs South Florida before the better cloud cover can move in , which will post-peak heating anyway. 

Cloud cover seems a given to various degrees all North and Central, with the morning NAM showing a better chances of at least a sprinkle both before and after frontal passage. For now riding with the GFS, which implies almost solely clouds, with possible sprinkles/a shower along the immediate east coast East of I-95 as far south as Melbourne. The Cold front ETA for the CDL (Central Dividing Line) is within an hour or two of sunset (most likely after)...progressing toward Miami/Dade toward sunrise, Thanksgiving Day.

Winds behind the front shift to WNW, then NW, then N, then NNE within 11-14 hours after passage, which equates to NNE winds by the time the morning grapefruit and AllBran is being served Central, working toward South Florida by late morning toward Noon Time..

THANKS-N-GIVING DAY: NE-ENE winds ALQDS (All quadrants) at 15-22mph during the day, with some gusts in the upper 20s. Looks like a Small craft advisory type of day, with plentiful stratocumulus clouds working in by early-mid afternoon as well once the depth and longevity of these winds persists down and east of the Gulf Stream waters offshore. Showers unlikely, but it could look like there will be rain from time to time as the sun sets. 

OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY: Continued winds of similar direction and speeds, with more clouds as well. Overnight lows in mid-upper 60Fs to near 70F+ at the coast, especially South/South Central. The NAM is showing incoming showers Thanksgiving Night through Friday east coast. Certainly, upon inspection of the forecast soundings moisture is good, however limited to a shallow 5000 ft,...which wouldn't justify anything beyond a wind blown sprinkle, especially since there is no convective inhibition...allowing any instability to escape into the wild gray yonder. Time will tell.

BEYOND: Per the header in the post this morning, and as previously pointed toward, another front is on the horizon for late Sunday into Monday, just 4 days later...this front could be the harbinger or foreboding of a trend toward climactic winter. In other words, there's ALMOST no turning back now.  The next front will take our overnight lows/daytime highs down a good 8-12 degrees / 5-8 degrees respectively (which is for the first few days of December). 

If the latest GFS trend stands fast, there is yet another front following suit 4-5 days later; thus, once again breaking the old  "One Front per Week" rule of the past month and a-half. Two fronts in a row, 5 days apart is more 'winter like', not allowing for much recovery in the temperatures between them.

This by now third front  being referred to toward the end of the first week of December bears watching....from the active weather prospect.    

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