"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

"Where's Waldo?"

Image: Latest surface analysis of temperature, dewpoint, and pressure. I've drawn in solid blue a rough guestimate of where a frontal boundary is present (more or less), in yellow is where it will end up by day's end before washing out entirely overnight tonight. Not shown in the image above is a weak surface low well east of Central Florida.

TODAY: A little cooler today than yesterday over North Central and North Florida, most notably along the coast from Sebastian Inlet and north, more so north of the Pineda Causeway along A1A, with the coolest air North of Daytona Beach (along A1A).

"Backdoor-ish"...(perhaps "back-boorish") boundary is sliding south to southwest ward through NE Florida as I write. It has taken since just past midnight to get to the location shown above from the Georgia border, and little further southward progress will be made through the remainder of the day. Expect that it's last and final frontier (most southern extent) will be along the coast east of I-95 late afternoon to somewhere near the Pineda Causeway in Central Brevard Causeway. The northerly winds we have early today are a bit misleading (as was the cloudy/foggy conditions earlier combined with them), leading one to believe a front had gone through already.

The winds were actually a realignment of high pressure south and west of the state. Behind the boundary winds shift from NNW-N-NNE-NE. Believe those winds (that are associated with the boundary proper) will work into the False Cape area and through the Canaveral Bight area and into the Port of Canaveral by late afternoon, penetrating as far west as I-95...making southward motion on seemingly pure momentum as the front will already be aligned with the upper level westerlies and thickness values that are going nowhere further south beyond 7pm, perhaps abetted southward a bit by circulation around the weak surface low off the coast moving further south.

Very pleasant away from the East Coast everywhere Central and North with highs in the mid 70s to near 80F (if that's what you like). Coolest spot today all in all will be East of US1 north of Ormond air trying to wedge in from the NNE or near parallel to the coast could impact A1A residents as far south as Patrick AFB late this afternoon. Either way, highs there will be in the low 70s except north of Ormond Beach where highs might never get out of the mid-upper 60s ([perhaps low 60Fs at coastal JAX). Warmest South Central and South Florida with highs in the low 80s. Don't think they'll eke out predominant mid-80Fs down there again today (like yesterday) with the Northerly wind.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY: Winds will let up significantly from the 10-18mph of this afternoon tonight and attain a more ENE to due East direction late night to early morning...perhaps near calm (especially inland) tonight. Fog many areas will be an ever present possibility along and south of the 'ghost of a boundary' remaining. Thursday afternoon the first true winds will develop from the SE-SSE and nearly parallel the coastline all afternoon as the boundary washes out, with the remnants moving well off to the east and south.

Elsewhere, expect to see a developing squall line forming early Thursday morning over East Central Texas to move almost due east through Friday noon, accompanied by strong wind gusts. The squally line will be merely the 'tail' of linear forced ascent to the bodily component of a mixed bag a wind field parameters (helicity/vorticity) and various gradients combined to produce flooding rains (accompanied by melted snow) over Tennessee and Kentucky (at least), with some rotating storms over most of Arkansas, NW Mississippi, Western Tennessee.

I'll be interested with this 'event' to see what the Tornado warning vs. observed quotient will be. This might be an event where radar sees a lot of rotation in storms, with very little of it actually reaching the ground. Hopefully, that will be the case.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Warm (as over nights go this time of year) with a low in the lower 60Fs, perhaps mid-60s east coast south of Daytona. Muggy. Tempted to through in a good old 10% chance of a shower along A1A from the Cape to Miami from 5am - 8am as winds transition to more of a more SSW (from a S component), but that would be it for the rain chances any where or time.

FRIDAY: Winds becoming SSW and breezy with gusts to near 20mph South Central to North Florida. Less so over South Florida. Warm, much like it was on Tuesday, but thinking it will be even warmer by a degree or two most everywhere.

SATURDAY: What's left of the cold front that will be making weather headlines beginning overnight tonight (in some schools of thought it already is)...will sink into North Central Florida. Starting to look like this front won't get much further south of a Daytona Beach - Crystal River line)....but going into the later in the weekend it could sink to the Beach Line area. Still too soon to say, but my guts screams, "No it won't!". This front will have made headlines through issuances of Tornado Watch boxes, Flash Flood Warnings, etc within most of "Dixie Alley"...only the Pensacola area will be able to recognize this system's fomer self in Florida...although anywhere along I-10 could experience a "whopping rain shower" or two while the meat of the system exits off the NE U.S. Coast accompanied by a plethora of precipitation types and wind as far south as East Central Georgia where the squall line will whimper and fizzle out.

SUNDAY: Another warm day as the first of the two storms systems that will be impacting the Deep South enters Florida. During this day another significant "Dixie Alley" Storm System will already be in progress. This one will be a "high areal coverage /short duration impact" event for that region, affecting the some folks as the previous system. But it will be a fast mover, and currently appears will be just one big squall line. Too soon to say for sure at this point in time.

BEYOND: First chances of rain above 10% looks like would be Monday of next week as a front has been forecast through several model run cycles to cross all of Florida to reach the straits by Tuesday. We'll see, and even if this does occur, rest assured, no big temperature drops. In fact, if this front does get through as forecast it will take temperatures down to seasonably normal climatological values (from the above average we've been experiencing for the most part).

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