"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, April 20, 2015

A Potential Exists Today For Isolated Severe or Some Strong Storms

Monday Morning Skies as Yesterday's Upper Level Energy Departs the Area
 The long heralded 'Day' (which one?) has arrived. That Day would be stronger winds aloft coupled with some colder mid level temperatures combined with bulk shear of up to 50-60 kts (speed shear) and moderate surface based instability. However, as is oft the case, there are some complicating factors that would negate this potential storm activity but all in all the 'Potential' is too great to let it go by without mention. By what degree a better chance of the severe-strong storm type will be muffed is hard to good be to a high degree which would mean no strong storms at all..but for now will go with HRRR simulations implying consistently that some very small strong storms could go up east half of state (mainly) later today...but the locations have shifted around drastically with the hourly model runs. 

Main hazard appears would be strong winds to severe strength over 58 mph but hail is also possible from pea to one inch if not a bit more in a small isolated incident or two. But like the past few days, the down side to those chances is the antecedent cloud cover over the areas where upper level energy will more than likely be passing over negating their 'stormy consequences'. As I type a bolt of lightning just came down close by at 12:40 PM, but it is a very isolated and small storm.

TUESDAY Frontal boundary to sink south though rain chances remain for parts of Central at some odd time late tonight or early Tuesday. Temperatures just a bit cooler on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY Guidance is really tough on consistency in the overall synoptic scale with not too great of agreement on guidance regarding Wednesday and beyond, and has been bouncing around a lot. For now, suspect we could have more rain chances if not storms this period but when is another matter. (e.g., one model shows mostly rain chances occur either late at night or early mornings and being of the non-thunderstorm genre). For now, will let it hang until this day is over and the next one is as well.  

The same goes for the extended. There are time the GFS is implying severe weather re-emerges (or chances of it) by the weekend toward Monday..but it has been extremely inconsistent in its call.


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