WEATHER MADE CLEAR FOR ALL TO HEAR

"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, December 18, 2020

WARMING Tonight - 'Potential Severe' Sunday Night & Christmas Eve; ?

After a very cool start to the day with a wind chill effect, the wind this afternoon will begin to shift more northerly to eventually NNE-NE or even ENE by tomorrow morning. 

The net effect of the change in wind direction will be most realized along the Florida East Coast , especially from the Cape and south. Low level patchy stratocumulus clouds will advect in along the coast overhead and a modified air mass from cool wind blowing across warmer ocean waters will begin to advect (move) on shore, especially from The Cape and South late this afternoon into early evening.


 

This will continue to be true throughout the evening with continued patches of clouds and modifying (warming) air. It is possible that the 'High Temperature" for the day will end up occurring shortly before midnight for the Barrier Islands of Brevard / Indian River Counties, possibly parts of far Eastern Volusia County as well. Thus, by morning these areas could be seeing 'morning lows' in the low 60Fs when 'afternoon highs' were in the mid - upper 50Fs.

SATURDAY: Continued veering of winds to easterly will affect most of the peninsula after sunrise Saturday morning - warmer all areas with highs generally in the mid-upper 60Fs, some lower 70Fs possible, especially for South Central/South Florida. Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with maybe even a period of light rain patches along the east coast, especially late in the day to overnight Saturday night / early Sunday morning (but brief and very isolated if so).

SUNDAY: A complicated situation is showing to evolve over the northern Gulf south of The Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night / early Monday. 

The NAM model is really hitting hard that primarily wind fields at all levels will become increasingly accommodating for overnight severe weather with bulk and directional shear being the impetus. 

Let it be known that at this time THERE IS NO WORD out for even 'potentially severe weather' from official sources; however, given the NAM's consistency in the past two runs (and increasingly so) in regard to the shearing winds over night time , and the GFS starting to join ranks, it might be advised to give at least a 'heads up' being that a strong tornado recently hit along the West Coast on a day when there was not even a tornado watch.



MONDAY: The GFS/NAM regardless both point to the next rain chances associated with a system to be late Sunday/early Monday - the frontal boundary to pass through is not forecast to be followed by a blast of cold air but rather keep temperatures at to maybe just a tad below 'normal' for this time of year. 

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days look quite pleasant with lighter wind and cool but not cold mornings; the immediate east coast could see lows in the low-mid 60Fs with a light onshore wind component even ushering in lower to mid 60Fs  at sunrise with highs in the 70Fs. Cooler mornings away from the coast (west of US1).

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) This period of time being a week away is still a BIG question mark, but be it as it may and given that this is a Busy Afternoon & Evening for many people for multiple reasons - will advise that don't EXPECT (or plan) that it will be an assuredly dry period of time. 

The GFS in the past THREE runs is giving a signal of rain, possibly thunderstorms occurring across the Big Bend into at least North Central and parts of Central Florida from late morning into the mid-evening hours. 

The latest GFS implies in my mind that without a doubt there will be Severe Weather (tornadoes possible) Central Florida Christmas Eve from 2pm -10pm time frame based only on the last model run (to note). Granted , it is WAY too soon to be talking 'tornadoes' at this stage - and the forecast will very likely change multiple times between now and then. For now, at least a heads up for a pretty good rain chance (for starters) for planning purposes if need be. More to follow in later posts -- and/or keep eyes and ears attuned to future OFFICIAL FOECASTS especially.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Given the above, will go out on the next limb - that being as of the last two GFS runs Christmas Day is showing up to be a cold day, "perhaps" the coldest day yet we'll have seen this season. The latest run is showing it to be , but all things aside that could easily change even by tomorrow morning's model run. 

All in all, the overall general scenario is that an active weather pattern is going to begin to take shape OVERNIGHT TONIGHT first with a Coastal Warm up (!) but then what follows in the coming week with all of its 'potentials' and variables in forms of weather will make things 'interesting'.

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