TODAY: As the title reads, and has been supposed would be the case for a few days, today appears will be about the most quiet day of the week across the state. The last of the 'big moisture' has moved out and winds are becoming increasingly unidirectional (all from the same direction) with height. There is little to really stir up the atmosphere today, and temperatures aloft are warm but not too warm for thunderstorms to be able to form.
NORTH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL: Nearly clear today, especially at the coast with increasing cumulus clouds toward the west coast. East winds this afternoon at 10-15mph with highs at prime beach time in the mid-80Fs at the beaches. I saw there has been stinging jelly fish out there. Beware. Water temperatures seem to haven taken a "July Plunge", not all that unusual this time of year really, north of Vero Beach. Yet another reason that tropical activity seldom hits Central or North Florida this time of year from the Atlantic. As such, any rain showers to form over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream have a hard time completing a trek westward to the shore line. Therefore, believe any coastal rain showers will be reserved for locations from near Ft. Pierce and South, possibly toward sunset or as the sea breeze surges forth around noon time, namely coastal portions of far South Central.
In short, for lightning lovers today will be the dreaded supposititious enervation in the "feel good when it storms' type of day. Find something else of interest.
SOUTH FLORIDA: The moisture is thinning out in this area as well, save for Dade/Broward County where some high cirrus clouds might be able to be thrown into the equation for good measure as the day wears on. There was a brief thunderstorm earlier over coastal Palm Beach county, possibly as the moisture was departing and saying 'bye bye'. Believe that as a stronger easterly wind picks up the coast could clear out this afternoon and provide the impetus for thunderstorm formation toward Lake Okeechobee and eventually the west coast...exiting the west side within an hour of sunset, if not sooner. There could also be an isolated late bloomer somewhere near Brandon toward St. Petersburg very late this afternoon toward sunset.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: Only some minor deviations from the pattern outlined above, although coastal showers might be able to progressively work northward toward KSC by late Monday morning, only if the form directly over that locaion rather than be advected (pushed on in) from offshore. Each day we should be able to push the thunderstorm chance just a shimmy further north. During the transition. Also, some storms over the Bahamas might be able to break loose and come very close to the east coast of Palm Beach or Martin County. Most of this activity will likely spark up during the evening hours and remain offshore. The 4th looks fine for "The Works" on the east side, but gets iffy toward the West coast. So far, things should have cleared those locations in time for any Colorfully Loud Festivities.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: More pronounced transition period. At this time the large dome of high pressure over much of the Central U.S. and Deep South will be breaking down and retreating west and south with time as the pattern begins to retrograde in the upper levels. During this time a large Atlantic ridge of high pressure will build in from the west toward Central and South Florida. As it does so, moisture is forecast (as it has been for several days) to dramatically increase into all of South Central Florida as well and deepen gradually through time to levels equitable to those of last week...but not as far north as I-4. Most likely this will have occurred by Thursday noon, but possible sooner. There will probably be a 'jump' in rain chances during the moisture surge of unknown proportions for greater coverage overall, as transition periods tend to be underestimated in that regard, both in coverage and strenght. This will be most notable across all of South Central Florida as far north as the BeachLine from coast to coast. South Florida will just ooze into the transition more gradually and just see more of the same they will have barely broken free of.
FRIDAY - FINAL SHUTTLE LAUNCH DAY: It is still not looking all so great for a final launch. Hope it can go at the time of scheduled launch, because as it stands now any delay beyond noon time will only increase the unlikelihood of a launch for several days if not a week. The pattern change, being as we will have been in the current pattern for over a week by then and transitioning to a different one (these patterns normally take about 5-10 days to fully cycle in the summer)...could hang on in regard to moisture levels and how and where it is shifted around can vary every 24-48 hours, but it will be around. This would mean, if nothing more than, increased cloudiness. Whether clouds are around at launch time could mean one of two things: 1) Clouds would be of convective nature and of sufficient growth to warrant concerns for triggered lightning; or 2) they will simply be too dense, creating a ceiling type not suitable for re-entry. It could go though if: 1) Clouds have not reached sufficient height or density given the earlier time of day; and 2) It could launch with a break in a cloud deck, but would be awful for viewing other than in some lucky, chosen spot ...which in the case of the last launch was from an airplane 25,000 feet above the clouds.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A frontal boundary will try to work into the Deep South, but not likely reach Florida. A surface ridge will be across the Florida Straits or "there abouts"..resulting in enhanced chances of Thunderstorm coverage and everything else that goes with it. The pattern will shift toward the Spine of the State toward the West coast for a few days heading toward Sunday, with noon time showers from near the East Coast eventually shifting toward I-4 and the west coast later in the afternoon with time. The pattern might then return back toward favoring the east sideuntil the following weekend.
It is not very often the A1A corridor from JAX to Vero is favored for thunderstorms to reach those areas, but it is normal for this to occur for a 1-3 day period every 10-20 days during the summer months (from my experience only).
It is mostly west of I-95 that receives these rains, leaving the immediate coast (A1A corridor) in late day PTSD.."Post Traumatic Storm Debris" rather than a storm itself.
TROPICS: The prerequisite clincher cliche of interest since, after-all, 'tis the season.
No big whoop in regard to significant tropical development is foreseen. However, sometime into late week there are hints that some sort of 1 or 2 weak low level circulations could become organized, but nothing more than a weak circulation. Probably what the models are picking up on is perhaps some sort of convective feed back associated with a full day of thunderstorm activity that has moved offshore. Sort of a pseudo-MCC (mesoscale convective complex), but not of text book type by definition evolving from either of the peninsula itself or off Cuba.