"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Partly Sunny, Slightly Breezy, Warmer - A Few Showers

FLORIDA is on the far left of the morning visible satellite image. Low pressure area noted in red will remain nearly stationary today and drop a bit more toward the SW and W through Monday. Current position is roughly 700 miles east of Ormond Beach. By Wednesday it will generally be approximately 475 east of Cape Canaveral and will have weakened considerably by that time as it opens up and starts to lift north and merge with another area of low pressure moving off the NE U.S. to Nova Scotia.

TODAY: As expected, the atmosphere decoupled overnight where inland lows were in the lower 60s and mid-upper 50Fs with a north wind, whereas at the East Coast winds remained NE from Cape Canaveral south toward Pemproke Pines where overnight lows remained in the low 70Fs (and actually warmed after 2am from the upper 60Fs in some locations). Winds in Miami were even NW this morning as opposed to easterly. Sharp cap at 5000 ft will lift toward 7300ft after noon at which point clouds should freely cross from east to west across the state. Models and even the Mesoscale Analysis Page are worthless today in determining where and to what extent showers will occur, considering that showers are mostly occurring toward SE Florida early this morning despite strong Convective Inhibition and the inversion, since this activity is occurring underneath those factors and are thus very low topped  beneath the inversion.

THIS AFTERNOON: The subsidence inversion should lift  by noon at which point stronger winds around 2000 ft will attempt to work to ground level resulting in ENE-NE winds in the 15-22mph range with a few stronger gusts. Winds might actually be stronger toward the interior. Showers will be moving a little slower today, as will the cloud patches. Thus, there could be enough sunshine during those breaks for highs to reach near 80F from Southern Volusia and South and across the interior with mid-upper 70Fs further north and cooler jet closer toward I10 along the coast near JAX/St. Augustine.

Morning surface plot from Melbourne's Local Data Integration System shows northerly drainage flow under the low level cap. Green 'hatches' show where a sprinkle or brief shower could occur today at almost anytime, but most likely after 2pm. Winds offshore are 20-23mph, and those should work in by noon time and work across the state by early afternoon. Satellite image (above) shows no end to the patches of clouds. But, they will move a bit slower today per model guidance depiction of the winds at their level. Thus, big breaks with sun followed by some mostly cloudy skies, with some blue sky likely visible along the horizon in some direction at any given time except in the showers.

TONIGHT: Instant replay of rather benignly breezy conditions this afternoon with the 'gale'well offshore. The surface low well offshore will start to creep in a general W-WSW direction and begin to weaken later on Monday.  In the meantime, the Surface ridge which is driving down the entire eastern sea board will start to displace more toward the NE and begin to overlap the low pressure area, resulting in more ENE winds. Fog will be possible over the northwestern portions of the interior now that ample moisture will have translated across the state under the subsidence region aloft and as winds decouple overnight toward Ocala and west and south toward northern Polk. 

MONDAY: Overnight lows tonight along the east coast will remain in the 70Fs from Brevard and south under partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy skies at times. With the inversion lifting again toward noon time. Shower chances look minimal once again, but the chance does exist. Winds will replay with afternoons in the 'upper teens to twenties', but perhaps be just a few mph stronger during to just after peak heating.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The low pressure area should be at its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday and be quite broad..located generally 550 East of Cape Canaveral. As such, rain chances might increase Tuesday night into Wednesday along the coast at anytime. Not so sure the overnight lowering of the inversion will occur Tuesday night though, which would mean warmer overnight lows everywhere and mild conditions since winds would not decouple from the 2000 ft level.

THURSDAY: Front will be on the approach, with the high pressure sliver still wedged in between the approaching front of low pressures and the low offshore which will start to lift a bit north and open up.
Winds on Thursday with the proximity of the low will become NW with no rain chances. Cooler start to the day along the east coast without the onshore wind component (60Fs) but warmer everywhere with highs in the lower 80Fs with some mid-80Fs interior and SE Florida.

FRIDAY: It appears the front will go through sometime Friday afternoon, but timing remains up in the air. Small chance of showers along the front with a period of NW winds a little stronger right after FroPa. 

SATURDAY: Still up in the air regarding morning lows, since the GFS is oscillating back and forth between very very cool to 'not so bad'. Still favor the not so bad, with coastal lows in the mid-upper 50Fs and the mid-upper 40Fs interior and west. Dry.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Rapid airmass modification as winds swing around to N-NNE overnight Saturday. Sunday morning lows possibly in the 60Fs along the coast. Chance of a coastal shower from the Cape South as winds swing on shore, but too small to probably even put in an official forecast.

BEYOND: Smooth sailing in the temperature department for quite some time to come with 70Fs round the clock and low 80Fs during peak heating hours. Could start to see more coastal showers again, but not ready to make a call on that one, considering the details of even today are tough enough, let along over a week from now.

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