"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Potential Exists for 'Stronger' Storms Today

Storm Encroaching on Cape Canaveral - June 18, 2019
TODAY:  Although most atmospheric parameters are similar to yesterday after a slow start, the overall 'synoptic scale set up for the state' is quite a bit different. 

Hence, storm activity will be getting going and prolong for a repertoire for different reasons from yesterday.

The Convective Temperature near noon per the KSC Sounding over East Central is up to 91F, which means 'late start' or that nothing will likely 'initiate in that area' given the current temperatures. The NAM and to some degree GFS model are analyzing a "mid level vort lobe' (atmosphere 'energy' / vorticity)  to cross Central Florida later this afternoon. If so, this could contribute to storm strength and/or coverage. 

Additionally, the pressure gradient in the vertically aloft is a bit tighter resulting in slightly stronger winds aloft.  Precipitable water values are running about the same, but a bit lower on the KSC sounding from what it was earlier this morning, down to 1.92" from 2.02' due to a slight drying aloft. 

With faster forward motion of storms today combined with perhaps that region of drier air (East Central) at least as far as the area around The Kennedy Space Center goes there is a risk that a storm or two could exhibit wind gusts at 50 mph + '.

Storms Impacting the Florida East Central Coast on Tuesday

South Central Florida is the fly in the ointment region since there was activity down that way earlier today and cloud cover still exists which would have stabilized the region. An outflow boundary was visible moving southward into Dade County setting off more activity -- but it appears that the area is recovering okay as of noon time and as such might still be able to 'wake back up again' produce storms later today as well.

Additionally, instead of activity going up along the West Coast Sea Breeze only, there is already convection going across North Florida (north of I4) instead. This area will likely result in an outflow boundary pressing southward coincidentally  the west coast sea breeze as it also pushes toward the east side of the state.

Arrows pointing to 'key areas ' today to watch for

Net result is that IF all those factors come together, strong storms would be possible. 

At time, the most likely area that seems this might be the case is Eastern Orange/Seminole/South Half Volusia, North Half Osceola, and Most of Brevard County -- that is to say, 'somewhere' in that area.

Other stronger storms could form further north as it is mostly north of Brevard that those stronger winds (albeit not by much ) exist aloft to Eastern Volusia/Flagler/Jax area.

As usual, the greater threat will be  lightning ..especially that which either precedes or follows the main rain activity or that comes out near storms prior to rainfall in any given area. 

THURSDAY- SATURDAY: Much lower rain chance all three days. Really, almost non-existent for the most part but for some very isolated area or two. The area most likely to see rainfall will be North Florida / Panhandle region. There is a small (very small) chance of a shower or storm toward the East Coast Late in the day (mainly) any of these days, north of the 528 Cswy up toward JAX and far South Florida. Mostly likely though, we won't be seeing much going on weather wise other than warm temperatures but for North Florida.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Strong Storms possible Sunday mainly north of Highway 60 (Ft Pierce area). Monday might also hold that risk. Too soon to say.

No comments: