"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Pattern Change Underway Now: Interior 'Strong' Possible

Details on the Pattern Change in the body of this post. For today, better sea breeze convergence and cooler air aloft  should result in a fairly typical summer like weather pattern just 5 days after the calendar first day of Summer on June 21st and 2 days after the first full moon of Summer 2013. Rip tide danger is in place as well as a result of abnormally high tides translating to very low tides during peak swimming hours   
TODAY: After a respite from active weather except for a few events along the west coast, a pattern is underway unbeknownst to the non-weatherized at the time of writing. Steering currents would or could favor more toward the east coast even more than what will result (today) if not for a bubble high that appears will translate across North Florida later today which will change the steering away from the immediate east coast (although it will be very light) mainly north of the Vero - Sarasota line. 

Sea breeze and lake breeze boundaries coupled with cooler air aloft (than normal) accompanied by plentiful surface heating and moderate low to mid level instability (CAPE) could result in a few stronger storms along boundary mergers with frequent lightning , tiny pea hail within the heaviest downpours, and wind gusts toward 50mph or so. Most of the stronger activity appears would occur in low populated areas today for the most part as well as remain fairly isolated, but come the 5 o'clock witching hour when LCLs (lifted condensation levels lower) - whatever area of potential not already scoured out by a sea or lake breeze or stabilized by earlier rainfall could experience a big storm , especially around 5:40pm -7:15pm (inland).

THURSDAY- MONDAY: So far, the last few GFS runs are consistent with the idea that the low to the mid-level subtropical ridge axis (aka "Bermuda High Extension") will loiter somewhere around Lake Okeechobee toward the Southern Everglades region..placing much of the state in a "frow the Southwest toward the  Northeast" steering flow, or in abbreviated form, "SW Flow". Such a flow directs storms toward the east coast late in the day, but given the warmer Gulf waters, would expect the west coast will experience a somewhat active period as well, only earlier in the day.   

BACKGROUND SYNOPSIS: For a number of days large thunderstorm complexes have been raking through the Great Lakes region in association with a developing trough in the upper levels. High pressure (heat dome) to form over the Desert SW Region will amply amplify  to complement the aforementioned trough to 'slide down the front of the ridge'..or 'deepen' or 'build south'...the result will make for much thunder activity almost perfect east of the Mississippi River area and more so toward the I-95 up and down the U.S. east coast. Many east coast locations with the sea breeze front could experience some stronger storms, with the Florida Peninsula magnified at times because of not one but two sea breezes colliding with each other. Resulting in a ridge over the west half of the U.S; Trough, east half. 

By Saturday or Sunday the SW steering and surface winds as well might get strong enough to hold off the sea breeze altogether, but regardless, rain shower outflows might still work in favor of activity. I suspect we'll be hearing of rain chances between 40-60% most days.  Other days, the west coast sea breeze will work well across the state only to "meet and make its East Coast Sea Breeze storm Maker" closer to if not east of I-95.

Some activity could linger into mid to late evening   several of the upcoming evenings as decaying thunderstorms in the form of light to moderate rain and night time lightning displays crawling through cloud tops in the mid-upper levels run their course. 

This pattern over all can be seen more clearly to develop by the image above of the  duplicate/coupled mid-upper level flow come Saturday into Sunday (below)...Ridge to the west; trough to the east.

So far, it looks like this new to come pattern 'in the Now' is to fold out and relax overnight Monday into Tuesday resulting in a deep SSE-SE Flow but a moist one which could make for east coast morning rain showers and westside thunder heading into the first full week of July.


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