"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Near or At Record Low Temperatures Possible Tuesday Morning

Clearing  Skies On a Sunday Morning (not from today) Cape Canaveral 
TONIGHT: With clear skies in force and NW winds all day, yet still a cold front is to press SE- ward emanating from the  complexly patterned low pressure system of Thermonuclear baroclinistic 'Sandy' which appears will bring snows to West Virginia  parts of Eastern Kentucky, Possibly the mountains of Western Pennsylvania and New York with time.

The front is scheduled to arrive fully through Central Florida around midnight tonight defined most solely by a drier air mass (lower dew-point temperatures) with lows in the morning Monday around the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs from near dead Central and north , a bit warmer further south.

MONDAY: With full sunshine and continued dry air infiltration, the forecast calls for flaky skin. Could be a bit like today in the wind department with highs not cracking 70F Dead Central and northward. It is possible that the high temperature will be close to what is considered the usual mark of 67F degrees as a minimum temperature which I've used in the past to distinguish the first full Fall day of the season along the coast of Brevard County. Noticeable temperature drop between 5-7pm as the sun sets.

TUESDAY: Possible record lows. Lows in the upper 40Fs parts of Brevard and mid-40s elsewhere. Winds NW continue. Very very cool to cold as far south as SE Florida as well. Cold is all relative, and in that perspective it will feel relatively cold to those not accustomed to this unusual temperature shift after many months of warm to hot and humid days. Very very dry Tuesday morning. Would not be surprised to see lower 40Fs, with upper 30Fs toward I-10. Highs again only in the mid-upper 60Fs  many locations

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, pretty much the same although it looks like Thursday afternoon we'll warm more in the afternoon most noticeably than on Wednesday.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Modulatory warming so that by Friday morning lower 50Fs and light winds will be a cinch relatively speaking in the morning. Pleasant.

BEYOND: Another cold front and rains could be on tap later of Election Week with another strong burst of much cooler temperatures and perhaps a stormy day prior. Otherwise, entering typical winterish like weather early on now when rains only occur with fronts. This is not to say though, that heading into the second week of November the weather of  these coming days ahead might just be a distant memory with warming temperatures across the boards heading into mid-November. Too soon to say. Daylight savings time begins next Saturday evening...speaking of saving..

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Friday, October 26, 2012

Sandy Storms Offshore , Not So Grand-ular Rains Today

Hurricane Center's Forecast track per model consensus and short
range guidance matches nicely so far today. In Blue and Black is where greatest wind and rain impacts at this time appear will occur
. Hard to see, Coastal Central.

TODAY: As of 1:45pm it appears Sandy will storm east of the state a good distance offshore. Earlier this morning the storm was 270 ESE of Cape Canaveral when Patrick AFB popped a gust of 53mph in a rain shower. By now, the storm is about as close to the coast as it will get, although some expansion of the wind field could occur per 'some' model guidance and as noted toward the 20-30 percent chance of sustained storm force winds (above) along the coast of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River counties mainly. Rains are not widespread per radar, and little change in the overall gist of things is expected other than for the potential of a slight up tick in winds especially toward or after the 4PM time frame through midnight. It is clear that winds just above the ground are not mixing down to the surface whatsoever other than in the rain showers which are few and far between other than in the renegade 'bands' time coming in mainly as shown.

Combining the forecast wind
and rain-fields yields off and on
tropical storm conditions in rain storms
for brief periods, with a possible increase in the late afternoon through midnight, although not all guidance illustrates a wet picture at all...beyond early evening.
For this post, the RAP short term guidance is shown as it seems to depict better what has already and is occurring. This can be seen in the next illustration which kaleidoscopes vibrantly the expected rainfall totals for this entire 'event' which at worst will be 'entired' as it appears now by mid-morning Saturday if not well before sunrise.

To the left is the rainfall totals showing less than an inch which locally at the man-cave and putty kat shelter (which at this moment is the lap) is already nearly that much.  Whether those totals occur  early, spread out over a period of time, or ever is another matter. It is the totals we are discussing here and not necessarily when or how long of a period upon which the rain will fall that is the crux of the matter.

But what next we haven't asked? 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Gradual drying out with NW winds decreasing and mild temperatures with lows in the mid- upper 60Fs and highs in the low 80Fs or upper 70Fs for the most part, Clear or nearly so beyond.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: NW winds most of the time, or at least early in the period as a frontal boundary is drawn south and east down the western flank of the storm's supporting upper level trough, while Sandy , per se..some calling it "Frankenstorm"....could say, "Oh My Godzilla"!

This front will herald in drier yet air, and very very cool morning temperatures in the upper 40Fs inland and north of Central, but 50Fs across the low to upper ranges are entirely possible most everywhere, including the coast. 

The clincher at this point is will the immediate coast get below 50F? If so, Tuesday and Wednesday might be the days. Afternoons though will be quite quite pleasant with light winds, clear skies, and quickly falling temperatures near dusk. Daylight Savings Time will be ending as well next Sunday.

A change in this overall trend is not foreseen until going into Friday and through next weekend. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction although not always realized, and such could be the case this go around as we approach Election Day. Appears this time we will realize it..and there might be yet another re-action heading toward "That Day" in the opposite direction toward a walk on the wet side once again. So far, pseudo to non-tropical in nature.

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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Sandy Tracks Footprints: The Double Edge Sword Storm

Clustering of forecast tracks early today with the 'cone of silence' error possibilities shown by the outer bounds of possibilities depicted in the thin yellow  bounds of possibilities per Hurricane Center's Standards
TODAY: Sandy made landfall as shown above much earlier today, but is now further north. Tropical Storm Warning now in effect up the Florida East coast (which is saying something considering how far off shore this storm is forecast to track as can also be seen in the above image).

Per GFS, heaviest rainfall is to occur on Brevard County of around an inch. On the other hand, the NAM is indicating over 7"! Big difference. More inclined to lean toward the former though, and if so, most of this will fall on Friday; however, any nudges further east reduces the rainfall potential to nearly zero.

For example, this is the NAM rainfall total forecast for the entire 'event' if there is to be a rain event at all. The GFS shows nothing of the sort though...not even close.

In regard to winds, both models concur surface winds of around sustained 40-50kts with winds just above ground toward 70 kts. It should be noted that at this stage the Hurricane Center commented upon actual observations that the upper level winds do not appear to be mixing down to the surface...on the other hand, per most models it appears they are hinting that Sandy could become somewhat Sub-Tropical in nature, then  expand vastly from its current configuration both vertically and horizontally into a much large 'system' of obscure nature resembling a Tropical System yet on the other hand, not a tropical system.  

In that regard, one could if one wishes Hope for the best and expect the worst..or expect the best and hope for the worst depending on which way one leans. Either way, the storm will do what it's going to do.

ISSUE AT HAND: The east coast of Florida will have zero preparation time once the ball gets rolling and Sandy gets into the Central portion toward north of the Bahamas, because it is at that point that the changes occur. Sandy could become a bit of a 'breathing monster' expanding outward and and on, in and out. 

In that regard, conditions 'could' suddenly go downhill without notice Saturday afternoon if the storm expands at that point in time and it is close enough to the east coast of the state to have the most detrimental effects. The NAM is especially aggressive but often tends to go over board on tropical systems despite the continuity it is showing from model run to model run...noting that other models do not seem to if they talk to each other.  The GFS is also being consistent though and has a better 'track record' so to speak.

Therefore, at a minimum it appears that a minimum worst case scenario is for sustained winds at the beaches especially of 40 to 45 mph with gusts to 50-55mph but with little rain other than on Saturday. A minimum otherwise scenario would be less wind and rain. Things can still change today though as well as into best for all interested to gather your belonging and head to California, but make it across the causeway bridges if on the barrier islands before 10AM on Saturday north of Sebastian Inlet. If not interested, kick back, but might want to pull in outside loose objects, tipping potted plants securation, and get the dog walked early.

Just Dreamin'.  Mainly, we could be seeing some power outages, especially if heavier rain falls...due to either falling limbs on wires or rain gets blown into exposed transformers. Heed the warnings and proceed as desired to suit one's self is about all there is to say. It is guaranteed we can expect turbulent seas and some beach erosion though, especially at this time of year when Autumnal High Tides tend higher than normal as it is, and as was observed yesterday locally on the beach.

What is the Double Edge? Following the passage of the system no matter what the track, the NNE winds becoming North then NNW-NW will drag COLD air down the state. Guidance is trending toward 40s and 50Fs in the morning hours in mid 50s to mid 60Fs in the afternoon going into Monday through Thursday. The thing to consider in this regard is that it has been quite some time since the state has experienced very cool air temperatures, and this could be a shock to the system. 

These types of readings are expected for at least  five days following the storm.. meaning open windows and 'A/C bill relief' as a beneficial off-shoot of the tracks in the eroded sand left behind from the other side of the sword. 

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Sandy beaches on Jamaica, Storm Watch in Effect


Official forecast track is wll off the east coast, yet a tropical storm watch is now in Effect from the  North Brevard County line and South as pre-suppositioned in the post yesterday could occur. Note that most tracks are well east of the state 

TODAY: Some more clouds again today as noted could be the case in the previous cost for packaging and handling. Some showers came in pre-sunrise at Canaveral as observed at the homestead, and more could be on the way later today per latest satellite visible imagery observed loops from this here man-cave. 

Regardless, some showers mainly from Volusia and South toward South Florida remain in the cards today mainly from Brevard to Indian River and St 'Lucile' Counties. This will continue to be the case at any time for the same regions up and down the coast through Thursday into Freitag  as conditions begin to be influenced locally by what remains of Sandy after crossing Cuba.

 Emphasis encouraged on placing uncertainty regarding 'what comes next'. Feast or famine, Beast or mammon, for the Florida east coast? In that regard, we can understand the Hurricane Center is placing emphasis per their own admittion  in their graphics on the clustered tracks of the Hurricane Models further east, yet still has hence put forth a Storm Watch as noted per top of blog post. 

So what Gives?

It would be best to show below what is not shown on those tracks. Especially the GFS model, the NAM model, and the NOGAPS models; Global Forecast System, North American, and Navy NoGaps models show a track more toward the west than the clustered tracks of the Consensus/Ensemble plots which makes perfectly good and reasonable sense. It appears the watch areas are in effect as a 'just in case precautionary measure at this conjuncture', or is it merely conjecture? Too soon to say as the old saying goes. Because as we can see:

NAM shows 70kts coastal Brevard

NAVY shows big Tropical Storm force winds with center just offshore
LATEST GFS as of 8AM shows 90 KTS off shore and 70-80kts on the coast, winds in all cases from the North.
THUS, point being, it's too soon to say which witches 
which is which. Thus, be advised. Whoops, we 
have been. 

It's not too hard to put 2 and 2 together...but at this point it does not seem 
to bother with the hassle until the storm clears or is upon the island of Cuba. In this regard, things still stand; "be prepared to prep"  for strong NNE-N 
winds, beach erosion, and high river waters and impossible bridge crossings, and power outages during the worst case scenario. On the other hand, it might not rain a drop.

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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Large Sandy (Beaches) - GFTropical Storm/Hurricane Statements :Could Be Necessary for Florida

GFS SURFACE WINDS from the 2AM EDT model run for Thursday at sunrise toward afternoon into Friday. Red COULD end up being Hurricane Watch or Warning zone, and Yellow 'Storm" zone. Too soon to say, way too soon...more below...
TODAY through WEDNESDAY: Not much to say   through these days as conditions with easterly winds and temperatures in the 80Fs by day and 70Fs by night continue. Some showers have moved in well South of Brevard, but not one model anticipated them...they appear to be low topped. Such will the case, increasingly so into Wednesday though, but nothing out of the usual. Best chances of showers going into Wednesday and cloud coverage off and on south of I-4.

BEYOND: Guidance across the boards shows a very very large tropical system named "Sandy" to lift north across Cuba   late Wednesday...after passing over or near Jamaica as a Tropical Storm. Consensus as of this morning indicates Sandy will become a Hurricane north of Cuba over the central Bahamas as the storm lifts north, but the clincher in those regards is just exactly how for west the storm will be at that time.

This is imporant relative to the Florida peninsula early on for the U.S.'s first dibs on the storm in regard to the region mainly from Brevard and South to Miami and far SE Florida. Tropical Storm force winds 'could' occur as Sandy skirts by along a part or all of that zone..or if the storm is further east, none of it. Worst case scenario is showing minimal Hurricane strength from West Palm and South mainly along and east of I-95.

The ECMWF (Euro) model no longer has the storm as close to the coast as previous runs have indicated,  but one other model has it a bit closer than even that shown in the image above; whereas, this is not in general  the case with others.

Whichever one model looks at , regardless, it can be assured this storm will be keeping forecasters busy up until it is assured the storm will clear all of the U.S. east coast which right now seems to be 50/50.  If the storm comes closer to Florida chances become greater that the U.S. Northeast states will be in for a very big storm. On the other hand, if it progresses too far toward the east while lifting north too soon...Sandy could well miss alll of the U.S. entirely.

Either way, big waves and dangerous rip tide conditions are a guarantee beginning late Wednesday through Saturday at least for the Florida east coast.

Rainfall, on the closest path, is most significant from Southern Volusia and south, and most impacting from West Palm Beach and south. On the other hand, if the storm skirts further east, we might not see a drop.

Speculation will abound today most assuredly, but until the storm is north of Cuba for a good 6-12 hours it might be best not to jump the guns, for that is all it is, speculation. In that light, have in mind if one especially lives right on the coast east of I-95 or even US-1 from Brevard and South to consider bringing in yard furniture for a worst case scenario . 

Wind direction is all important as well. Strongest winds in a worst case scenario will be NNE to NE. At this time, there is no official word from the Hurricane Center regarding Florida, thus, these words are obviously only for informational purposes. Use at your Own Risk (if there is any to be had.)

Image of Cape Canaveral Beach at Sunrise

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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Cloudy Today, Chance of Showery Rumbles Mainly South of SR528

Sunny Day Not To Be Found Over Most of the Peninsula of Florida
(Cape Canaveral Florida Sunrise Image)
TODAY: Mid-upper level impulse at the base of a large and to become a slightly negatively tilted trough with its northern most component later today near western Minnesota that extends to the north gulf is sweeping across the state today, with the trough axis to cross late today into tonight. Vast amounts of  high level moisture already at play as can be seen in satellite imagery (below)..but per KSC sounding ..south of I-4 mid level moisture is sorely lacking. Guidance is showing rain in some form or another mainly near and South of the Central Dividing Line along 528 west toward north Tampa Bay, mainly along the east 1/2 of the state after 2pm through sunset. 

Given the  sounding info this morning, not sure lapse rates in the mid-levels will be sufficient to generate that rainfall, but with a little heating and perhaps some dissipation of higher clouds although at this time not yet seen as being evident in the cards, thunder could be a real possibility  mainly south of 528 or SR 50 but more so near and south of Lake Okeechobee.

Otherwise, light wind today outside of any possible storms. Only downplaying what would've had the potenital to be a 'big weather day' if not for the preliminary cloud cover. Strong storms are not entirely out of the question, but will down play that potential today, at least at this early hour.

OTHERWISE: Primary frontal boundary from the larger trough is to pass down the state on Saturday, mainly dry south of I-10 as it does so (at least at this point), but accompanied by cloud cover to varying degrees.  Before that time, there is a bit of a 'dry slot' at this point to move in behind this impulse passing over head today, so Friday and even Thursday could be mainly dry except toward South Florida and the Panhandle; no hard set rules on that one yet though.

Temperatures to cool mainly along and north of I-4 on the east coast and toward South Tampa Bay on the west coast. Folks south of the Cape in All areas will hardly know a front went through, just like the one the other day resulted outcome that manifested. Front? What Front?....exactly.

No true 67F and below readings for the immediate East Coast south of I-4 (East of US1) is foreseen through Halloween.

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Monday, October 8, 2012

Showers, Thunder through Early-Mid Evening (Central) Possible Today/Tonight

Frontal Boundary late today to be located as shown in the following image, but currently located diagonally across the Panhandle where morning lows were in the 50Fs behind it (that cool air will never reach Central Florida). Difficulties in forecast today due to cloud coverage over many areas that is to persist
TODAY: Short post today. Cluster of Storms is progressing toward the ENE (shown above), this coupled with surface winds becoming more southerly after noontime, and increasing SW midlevel steering across mainly Central and North Florida with instability and cool air aloft despite the cloud coverage could instigate showers and thunder (South Florida is already experiencing quite a bit)...almost anytime, esp. after early afternoon.

The frontal boundary across North Florida could make it toward Dead Central around midnight, and slight low level convergence along that boundary could shift increasing rain chances toward the SE from NW Florida later today, but timing is a tricky factor considering the ongoing scenario currently in place.

There was some large rainfall totals over 4" yesterday in Okeechobee County, so localized flash 'flooding' is possible there, although the main core of rain is not 'expected' to reach that zone. Guidance 'seems' to be a somewhat of   agreement that it will be the north 1/2 of the state that will receive the main flux of rainfall, but no area can be counted out once localized boundaries come into play and considering it is already raining over portions of South Florida early on today.

Image for mid evening shows front's location and a weak low pressure circulation over the Bahamas. High pressure building eastward indicated by zig zag blue line will press eastward toward Florida resulting in a wind shift to the north by Tuesday and drying out mainly north of the 528 Causeway, but yet more drying to commence Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday through Friday or early Saturday. 
BEYOND TODAY: Shower chances early on along the east coast of Central tomorrow morning but this activity will press off toward SW Florida during the day.  After that time, Wednesday through Friday look mostly dry, although another boundary will skirt by off shore with little to no impact  Morning lows along the coast in the mid-upper 70Fs south of the Cape and afternoon highs in the 80Fs and lows 90Fs along the SW side of the state.

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Saturday, October 6, 2012

Chance (?) of Very Strong Storms Today, Frequent Lightning

Mesoscale Analysis Graphic From the Storm Prediction Center website based on RAP Guidance shows upper level divergence and stronger winds aloft (which coincides with morning actual soundings from KSC/TPA, JAX) over the Gulf. Issue today could be cloud cover in some areas which might burn off quickly in the next few hours, and a convective temperature at KSC way up at a hard to attain 92F . Especially if storms form over far west Florida and spread high clouds eastward.
TODAY: There is a chance of severe storms today, although no formal outlets are relegating this potential officially, so in regards to a mere blog post that comment should be taken with a grain of salt. 

Temperatures aloft are cooler than the past two days and jet stream level winds down to the upper most portions of the steering level are twice as strong than the past two days as well, which leaves for good 'evacuation ' out of the top of the storms for breathing room. BUT, underneath those winds lingers substantial cloud cover mainly north of the Beach Line zone ('Dead Central Dividing Line' often referred to only in these posts). Instability is in the same range as two days ago nearly so, with CAPE already up to a 4000 in a small area near Gainesville per KSCs Local Data Integration System plots, which completely conflicts with the NAM guidance showing less than 500 J*2/kg*2, so have discarded that guidance entirely.

Activity could form very close to the east coast by early afternoon, and early outflow from that activity might very well stabilize locations close to those showers and/or earlier day storms... particularly south of Brevard toward Lake Okeechobee (Vero south to West Palm Beach ). Most models are placing late day rains along the WEST coast though, but propagation changes everything, which appears would be from the northwest, which is what the below image is at least taking into consideration.

Winds below about 9000 ft are very light, so sea breezes should not have a problem developing. Much of how those develop and how strong they will be is largely contingent upon how well inland temperatures can warm and where that will be. Suspect that perhaps all of dead Central might end up being the 'zone' to watch, but graphics in this post do not really capture this essence other than shown above as a starting guessameter. 

The downfall per KSC for strong storms, or the state having a hard time getting started, is that the KSC sounding shows a convective temperature of 92F. This is possible inland once clouds clear (I suppose), or that temperature might have been a morning glitch which could easily no longer exist. So to play it safe will call the wild card bluff today to play it safe in the 'heads up' department. 

Will add that the High Resolution model is showing only storms over Brevard County today, as of a run three hours old.

The other thing to watch will be that if a good cluster-age of storms can amass toward Ocala (in general) outflows could propagate toward the South and east toward the Palm Beach County area later today as far north as the Cape area. This might all be made up for though in terms of rainfall totals rather than strong to severe storms, but it does look like at this point there is no reason not to discount the potential at least for gusts toward 65 mph and small hail after the first couple storms get going and their subsequent outflows interact.  

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Not surprisingly, the GFS is holding off a bit in the longer ranger into early next week on frontal passage, awaiting instead for it to occur once a secondary front only now coming together well to the north to press on east and south behind the eroding first boundary moving toward the Appalachian Chain and into the Deep South. 

Thus, rain chances now go into at least Tuesday..and might be even longer. Sunday looks a bit like today in regard to parameters as does Monday. Low pressure over the Caribbean is conflicting with frontal passage, acting a bit as a block..with a continued moist low but light easterly flow 'hencefromforthethishly'. Therefore, showers are also possible overnight and early morning mainly near the east coast, but isolated into Tuesday.

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Friday, October 5, 2012

Chance of a Strong Storm and 'Big' Lightning Today

This image by no means meant to cover the details, as heavier activity could occur north of Lake Okeechobee (not shown) and pretty much anywhere west of I-95 today except toward Miami (?)
TODAY: Overall today conditions are not much different than yesterday other than that low level instability is not as strong. Winds aloft are light to totally negligent to steering so again it is possible for the atmosphere by early evening to take on a life of its own as was the case yesterday. One location in Lake County received over 6 inches of rain.  Slow storm motion mainly due to propagation and merges could back-draft toward the east coast toward or after dark as the sea breeze wanes especially. In that regard, any coastal location could get a shower or storm after 8pm (potentially) as an odd ball out.

There is a good amount of downdraft CAPE once again, making for questionable coverage (like yesterday). That was the case yesterday as well  and what ended up occurring was good coverage with much lightning activity. A child was struck on a playing field along the west coast. No severe reports (hail/wind) came in however, perhaps lightning made up for the difference.

SAT/SUN: No changes in the mid-term and extended. Rain chances continue in random but wide spread fashion, decreasing on Sunday for the north mainly. High pressure now centered in the mid-levels over Central Florida will weaken as a front approaches, but the low levels will not be so willing to change. 

The next front is shown yet still to never really clear the state as it lifts off to the Northeast while pulling off to the east after crossing most of Georgia. 

Regardless, high pressure behind that boundary will assert a much greater influence over the state by Monday approaching from the West and northwest. As a result, ENE-NE winds will become more easterly into next week late week, with the only effect of said High Pressure being subsidence (sinking of air) and drying out of the atmosphere. This could mean cooler mornings away from the East Coast, but those folks located close to and east of A1A from the Cape and South will unlikely see overnight lows dropping much below 77F degrees with ocean temperatures running around 80-81F degrees and onshore but light winds continuing over night, blowing off the water of those temperatures.  The above image is a GFS surface temperature forecast for Monday Morning where the blues are at , near, or below freezing.

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Thursday, October 4, 2012

Strong Inland Storms Today Possible Mainly South Central

TODAY:  Brief post due to time constraints. Quick peaks of the last few successive hours though shows that a very rich and moist dew-point air mass in the low levels has crept north toward I-4 as of 11AM. This is easily discernible just by stepping outside.

United Launch Alliance/Boeing Delta IV this morning

 High Instability already exists with Convective Available Potential Energy closing in on 4000 units which is high. ...even just offshore the east coast it  is advecting (migrating) inland under slightly cooler temperatures aloft from the past several days. 

With that said, there is the potential for good coverage of showers and thunderstorms today just west of I-95 mainly South of I4. The ridge axis at steering level is almost directly across Central Florida stretching from east to west from High pressure in the Atlantic centered well to the state's east. this is noted on the morning KSC sounding and on the latest short fused guidance quite nicely.

 Steering in this regard is very slow, so would expect that apparent storm  motion will be due to propagation of outflow boundaries into unadulterated warm and moist unstable air west of the east coast sea breeze, potentially toward the WSW-SW direction. Some stronger storms are possible with the greatest hazard being excessive lightning strikes and a brief period of near severe wind gusts in and near storms. 

Going further into the week the GFS of several days ago seems to be re-emerging as a viable option for continuation of rain and storm chances into the weekend, with the Monday to Tuesday time frame being the point of departure, although that could change given the time frame in the future from now.

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Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Decreasing Rain Chances Begin Today and Beyond

Surface Ridge of high pressure is lifting north up the east coast and could be well north of Central Florida by tonight. Although steering is from the SW storm inition will be near the inverted trough already north of part of Central Florida
TODAY: The inverted/old frontal boundary combination is now being eroded both from the West and from the east by High Pressure. The boundary itself lies near I-4 and shows up slightly in the above image near where the red markings in the graphic are (indicating possible stronger storms today). South of the boundary is where the greatest instability lies, but there is no trigger. Orange areas could see thunder today in general with downpours and overall heaviest rainfall totals in part of Seminole and Volusia Counties (possibly).

BEYOND: Moist easterly flow becoming ENE-NE at times with little change in temperatures night and day. Showers and some thunder will mostly remain west of I-95 south of I-4, and near the coast early morning hours, with inland activity remaining possible through the weekend into next week. Another frontal boundary will be progressing eastward which is now taking shape, but so far it appears this too will wash out near where our currently boundary is located (near I-4) as high pressure reigns supreme over Florida.

Frontal boundary out west will bring MUCH cooler temperatures Nation Wide by early next week.

EXCEPT across Florida south of I-10 and SW Arizona. Only those two zones it appears will feel very little changes for at least the next 10 days.

By early next weened

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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Showers, Some Thunder, In and Out Clouds Through Sunset

As Can Be Seen at 1:30pm, cloud cover is offsetting destabilization of the atmosphere
to some degree today, yet east of that frontal boundary now nearly stationary, the air
mass over all is nearly uniform and quite moist. Lack of boundaries / good trigger but  an analyzed vorticity max near the SE Coast  may set off a chain reaction of Northeast bound showers and thunder increasing in number and strength especially after 3pm from South and South Central Florida (primarily). 

TODAY: Frontal boundary as shown is a bit joined at the hip with an inverted trough of low pressure coming off the Yucatan. That trough is part of a very broad area of weak low pressure across all of the Caribbean extending into the far SW Gulf.  The air mass east of that boundary is fairly uniform, with poor low level lapse rates due to early day clouds and warm mid-level temperatures making for unfavorable early start on the stormage action. Regardless, if we can get more of the high clouds out of here, Deep Layer Convergence is showing up south and over the Big Lake, and with steering toward the Northeast at around 20-25kts (possibly)..changes could be forthcoming toward mid-afternoon in the form of showers and some thunder especially north of the Lake and more so into Osceola, Indian River, Brevard, Seminole and Southern Volusia Counties from around 3pm until 8pm., especially if the Lake Shadow plays into the action.  Winds gusts in and near the showers or thunder could be strong, even in only rain showers but those cases if any will be isolated at best.  Activity should have not much of a problem moving swiftly offshore with lingering cloud cover through sunset as some lighter rain patches persisting should the convective wheels get set in motion during the next hour or so.

WEDNESDAY: The boundary could advance a bit more toward the SE as moisture continues further north by that time over-riding the boundary. In that regard, the better rain chances tomorrow could be further north and west,, but overall other than some cosmetic low level wind direction changes the mid-upper levels do not change all that much other than that the wind speeds in those levels begin to lower.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: The boundary by Thursday appears will be all but gone, but moisture persists making for difficult to time rain shower chances, although this could end up being a diurnal cycle showers scenario for the east coast in the early morning shifting west and north during the day time, but not exclusively so.

A frontal boundary is going to be coming together across the Central Portion of the country, but just exactly how or when that boundary will cross Central Florida and the remainder of the state is uncertain considering current timing suggests well out to Monday of next week.  In that regard rain chances, although nothing significant is foreseen, remain in the picture up until that time frame. Only the direction from which they come from changes.

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Monday, October 1, 2012

Good Shot At Rain and Thunderstorms Today - Tuesday

Chance of Larger Rainfall Totals but nothing Extra ordianry along the East coast, first best guess shown in the Purple Area
TODAY/TUESDAY: Frontal boundary easily visible to the left in the above image extending into the Gulf.

East coast side shore to slightly onshore will aid in convergence with predominantly increasing SSW Flow aloft  should work and speed up earlier outflows and boundaries northward into Central and Possibly NE Florida, where there is a chance of some stronger activity due to better wind shear, although best instability might be near and South of I/4.  Not much different tomorrow as it looks now...

WEDNESDAY: Boundary sinks into Central but becomes rapidly diffused and stretched out as the parent low is well to the north over the Great Lakes Region at least...high pressure starts to reassert across the remaining boundary with a bit of an inverted trough extending from the Yucatan to Central Florida providing for at least one more day of better rain chances before decreasing some, but not entirely into next weekend. No temperature changes appreciably worth noting.

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