"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Gentleman's Forecast Guess For Heavy Late Afternoon - Mid Evening Rain/Thunder

Stormy Skies Approach the Fish Camp in West Cocoa Off of SR520 Late Friday Afternoon with an eerily near calm wind. That changed within minutes after this photograph with cool thunderstorm outflow winds blowing through

TODAY: As if most days are not difficult enough, today is proving to be a nightmare to forecast. The reason is : 1) lack of any significant sea breeze convergence due to only slow sea breeze inland progression; 2) no focal synoptic boundaries other than the one across North Florida which meanders north/south by 50-100 miles but mostly close to I-10; and (3) later than usual onset of sea breeze induced showers and storms, plus (4) very diffuse east AND west  coast sea breezes. In fact, today the gradient flow is about all there  is to work with along the east coast due to a weak trough and low pressure circulation offshore. See image below.  On shore wind at the beach is mostly less than 10 mph, and seems to be mainly perpendicular to what ever coastline shape it traces. Hence, it is ENE toward the Launch pads and SE near Cocoa Beach, and Easterly further down the coast. The only real sea breeze is along the North Florida East Coast...and that is enhanced gradient flow rather than thermally induced.   5) Showers and some thunder have gotten started mainly along the entire west coast  sea breeze. It is progressing inland in broken fashion mainly because these showers are sending outflow boundaries eastward toward the interior...especially in North Central/North West Florida.

LATER: Today's activity will begin later today for other than standard shower and light thunder fare we are seeing now, after peak heating has reached and things start to cool down. That means after 4:30-pm. Once this activity gets going more significant outflows will yield more storm coverage and greatest strength as well.  My line of thinking is that one of the earlier areas to ignite will be near Lake County and also around Lake Okeechobee. 

CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL: Out flow from this activity will spread out...but mostly toward the East (near Lake County) and against the opposing light northerly gradient flow. This should set off a chain reaction South and a bit eastward down the spine of the state favoring a bit toward the west of Orlando and into the Disney Metro-Plexes , Western Osceola, and much of Polk County. Outflow from this  domino affect activity, as well as other activity sparked further east could send a second outflow surge east and west toward the Brevard County line of short duration for maybe a storm or two.  Oddly, the area around Cocoa Beach toward the Space Center has had 'something going on' all morning and still does. Unless a significant sea breeze moves across this area, there is a remote chance of thunder somewhere closer to the coast near the Cape in the early evening with such light wind at 3:30pm in the afternnoon and very high dewpoints. As of nearly 4pm only now do I see some palms stirring, but not by much.  It is almost warmer in Canaveral than in Melbourne further inland this afternoon, even with the light onshore wind puff...hardly a sea breeze (yet). Although, all kinds of things can happen between 4:30pm and 5:30pm....."The Witching Hour".  Who knows what evil lurks at that time!

Image looks like Lego-Land doesn't it?!!. Actually, all this is showing is 3 possible areas of interest in the green squares. Where thunder could happen in orange, and in red is possible the more highly concentrated area of thunder. Any strong storms of which there might be 2 or 3 could produce some gustier than standard fare winds, and possibly one might generate some Hasbro B.B.Gun sized stuff.  The water-body generated boundaries are shown in blue, and that does not count the numerous larger lakes in the interior of Central Florida. I think the lakes in Osceola County today might be a big player today as well in the Kissimmee/St. Cloud area and down the Florida Turnpike toward Yeehaw Junction.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Light sea breezes not doing much..and Lake Breeze shadow has established across the SW Portion of the state...sea breeze/shadow boundary interactions could fill this area in later today with small isolated activity into Palm Beach and Okeechobee County.  Okeechobee might get the best of both worlds by the time all is said and done tonight..with outflows and boundary merges filtering southward with time from the north combined with doing it's own business. We won't tell.

SUNDAY/TUESDAY: As has been written, patterns in the summer mostly hold in for around 3 days (with variations of the same theme). Yesterday was the beginning of a new theme, and today is yet another variation as will be  tomorrow. There are bigger eggs to fry though...that is, low pressure of fthe Florida East Coast and the boundary near the FL/GA border. One indication is that the boundary will sink toward Central Florida by tomorrow, whereas another is that it goes nowhere. Additionally, the GFS (Good For Something) model...uh... Global Forecast System...has shifted gears from the past 36 hours. Instead of further forming a surface/mid level low over or near the now brings it in then takes it back out to sea and well offshore by tomorrow. Maybe it is bringing it in due to a diurnal fluctuation..but for whatever reason and where -ever that low and the predominant North Florida boundary lies tomorrow will determine our forecast tomorrow in regard to where the best chance of rain will be.

LONG RANGE: The Good For Something model is failing us also done an about face/forward march in a different direction. "Hey you!...What about what you said all those days ago for the past 8 days?!!..'Don't Pull a  "Casey" on us.  Yes, it seems to be either lying or had a hiccup for days ahead.  But there does seem to be a period of better rain chances along the Beaches of North Brevard earlier in the day through Monday with thunder further inland in the afternoons. North Florida dries out..and now it slowly becomes South Central and South Florida that get into the focus heading into the middle of next week. But it's touch and go. That is because it wants to believe there will be a SW gradient flow so strong that the East Coast north of Titusville will never get a sea breeze. We'll have to see about that. Looks suspect. The entire 12Z run latched on to something, and probably just hasn't resolved it yet. Could taken another run or two to relax and look more reliable.

Traversing east bound on the Pineda Cswy  across the Indian River on Friday just before 6pm

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