"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Bee-lieve It: Record Warm February in Progress - Chance of Showers Overnight

 Not much change from previous post which was a while ago. Record warmth, mainly in regard to overnight warm minimums as was anticipated continues, and shall continue to be the case up through Monday.

TODAY: With that said, the only change from the past two days is a better risk of rain showers over Eastern Half of State toward mid-late evening  tonight and up through before sunrise Friday certain areas. Overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 60FS with lower 70Fs east coast south of the Cape - highs in the interior running in the mid 80Fs. 

Clermont yesterday reached 90F, a new record for that location. Immediate Beach side temperatures have been running in the upper 70Fs to near 80F north of Ft Pierce, and south of the Cape.

As noted, a few showers possible overnight tonight as shown above. The GFS has been proposing as such for a few days now and the 4KM NAM has fallen in line.  

The NWS in Melbourne is pointing out that many areas in "East Central Florida" are in-line for a record or near record warm February, after below to much below temperatures last month. Does that mean the trend will continue through March? 

Not necessarily. The GFS and the Climate CFS-V2 model both show a shift to occur possibly in the later parts of the first week of March that would take us all the way down to 'normal'. But, that is quite a way off, and too soon to weigh in on with any due course of certainty.

A cold front is  expected , however, to work down the state late Monday afternoon or into the evening (timing could change). Prior to that we might see near to record high max temperatures as well for many parts of East Central Florida as wind acquires a more Southwesterly Component prior to frontal Passage.

 Post-front conditions appear will still be 'above normal' mainly in the morning minimums and will provide for a cooler day by standards of late, but still above average. The front itself appears will go through as 'dry'. 

Quick recovery after that front to continued  'above normal' temperatures thus follows by a day or two after the front clears. Noting, that it is the interior that is truly feeling the warmth in the afternoons. The 'immediate' coast has been much more mild-moderate with less than a 10F degree difference between morning low minimums and afternoon maxes.

I have observed that the water temperature at the buoy near the Cape Canaveral Port entrance is now reading water temperature of 73F which is up a whopping 10F degrees from about a month ago.

The NWS , Melbourne has been busy putting out  'Record' or "Tying Record' reports most every day, mainly for the warm, minimum category, though some record highs have been reported as well, one such location being 'Sanford'. Below is but a few samples of these reports.

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