|"Cold Front" location at 1PM as noted by Lower Dew Point Air, Front to Continue South through Tonight|
TODAY-TONIGHT: Short post since little has changed since yesterday's post. The frontal boundary that was to cross Central around sunrise was several hours behind the previous forecasts and is only now crossing central a good 6 hours later than thought.
This boundary will end up across the keys or just south of there in a greatly diminished fashion with a secondary boundary to remain near to south of The Lake Region into tomorrow. Not much change in temperatures for the immediate east coast but the interior and western side of the state will be cooler tomorrow morning mostly because of the drier air mass which allows overnight lows to fall more generously in the absence of the warmth holding higher dew point air.
SATURDAY: Using a blend of the NAM (North American Model) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) models as there is a bit of surprising consistency between the two as of this morning's model runs.
Both show a slightly sooner arrival of 'stormier potential' weather from around near sunset on the west coast near Tampa Bay southward toward perhaps the Punta Gorda area as a series of 'vorticity lobes' (upper atmospheric level energy impulses at and above 2000 - 20,000 ft) in waves across the state.
There are implications of a weak surface low forming over East Central Florida at the same time a more discernible weak circulation is still off the SW Coast for Florida to move toward the ENE toward Central/South Central Florida as well.
Otherwise, upper level energy will also cross all of North Central Florida as well. Most of Saturday will be dry however, until late day, UNLESS storms can manage to spring up late day near the east or west coast which the NAM is hinting at. Any thing to spring up might be worth watching, though the upper levels winds and strong mid-level shear and colder air aloft is not set to arrive until after dark and be overhead until at least after 9 p.m.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Better chance of locally heavy but brief rainfalls with gusty winds to sub severe and possibly some near severe hail (?!) ? Questions abound , but mid level circulations are possible, just not down to the level below about 4000 ft. Still, such conditions could give rise to storms with out much cloud to ground lightning but strong gusty winds . Most activity of strong category is being shown to exit the east coast after 1:AM Sunday morning except possibly along the east coast from near Vero to West Palm or further south until around 5:AM or so.
SUNDAY: Slow clearing if at all South and South Central Florida with a remaining chance of rains until at least noon time some locations, with the Far North parts being in the clear as far as rain goes. Strong activity though will be long gone most everywhere by late morning.
BEYOND: This weather even will not be leaving cold air behind really much at all. Warm temperatures for the south half of the state toward the lower to mid 80Fs (interiors) by Tuesday afternoon .
We will likely be hearing words of 'The Polar Vortex" over the news lines soon since those 'words' won't be going away anytime in the future since being brought to the fore front last year ; blog posts here sometimes mentioned the James Bay Low instead.