"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Early to Late Evening Thunderstorms - Some Very Strong South Central

Enhanced Infrared Satellite Imagery from 6:30AM this Thursday morning. We see two complexes of thunderstorms by the enhanced coloring of cold cloud tops over North Florida and the Atlantic. These system sent out two large outflow boundaries (OFBs) which spread South- through southwest -through west as noted by the 'cold fronts' drawn in.
South Florida at this time was under strong subsidence (settling of the atmosphere) and was quite stable in the wake of late evening rains in that area last night.

TODAY: First off and foremost, very difficult forecast for today. Almost tempted to write off rain chances today altogether, but things could come together by late this afternoon for showers and storms to form by 5-6pm so going ahead with a worst/best case scenario (depending on one's preference for rain and thunder). It will take a while though. 

As shown in the above image, storm complexes over SE Georgia and North Florida sent out huge outflow boundaries (OFBs) which raced South through West this morning and completely scoured out the atmosphere over the peninsula. Clouds have cleared nicely now though, but as can be seen by looking out side, clouds are pretty scarce behind these boundaries in the more stable air. High pressure has set up residence temporarily in the wake of this boundaries which are now in far South Florida where some showers have formed over the Keys area. Also, within the wake of the OFB(s) was NE winds. These winds, within the overall circulation, have drawn in haze and a 'smokey smell' to the coast in Canaveral even with an easterly wind at noon time. Haze is once again present as a result as well. This smoke/haze is coming from fires in SE Georgia, one of which can be seen in the last image in this post.

Over all storm steering winds at noon time show the high pressure over the center of the state. On one hand, this  is  very unfavorable for storms to form any time soon. On the other hand, the presence of this high will allow instability to build up this afternoon, but not to the level of instability achieved yesterday.

FORECAST: Believe that thunderstorms can still form today, but they will be late in coming. First storms should (and already have) appear in the Panhandle. Afternoon temperatures will not be nearly as warm as the past two days, with highs mainly in the mid-80Fs at the coast and low 90Fs inland except perhaps along SW Florida where some mid/upper 90Fs will occur.  The high pressure shown above should strengthen even more through early afternoon but begin to drop a bit south and west late today. The east coast sea breeze might be hard to discern...considering there is already an easterly gradient wind component in place, but when it does form it will come from the southeast to SSE around mid - afternoon. That sea-breeze boundary should meet up with the Gulf/West Coast Sea-breeze near the Gainesville to Ocala line. Storm motions will work to Ormond and maybe even Daytona but then begin to work more southward to SSW with time.

Strongest storms today should occur along the I-4 corridor and west of I-95 after 6pm, and work into the Orlando area. Lake County could also receive a good storm or two...but with time storm motions and propagation along the east coast sea breeze should stack up the precipitation along the Southwest side of the state. Storms/rain could last until 11pm...under the assumption they can form at all of course.

Believe storms will just skirt I-95 toward US1 in Volusia and far North Brevard. Showers can occur over the Keys early as well as well after dark.  Some storms might linger in the Orlando area and try to backbuild toward Northern Brevard County after 9-10pm, but that option is not shown in the image due to the already mounting unsure/doubtfulness in today's post.  Also note the radar return in SE Georgia. That is actually smoke.

FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Overall, not a lot of change in the pattern. A surface to mid-level ridge Atlantic Ridge axis will set camp either directly over Central Florida or South Central Florida. Late afternoon to evening thunderstorms will be possible closer to the East Coast, especially from near Mims and North to JAX. So far, it appears storms could clear the east coast for almost all of Brevard during the late afternoon on Friday. Storms most any day could be exceptionally strong due to wind gusts and/or hail size in isolated/random fashion, especially on Friday.

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