"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Chance of an Isolated Strong Storm Late Today near the Coast

Albeit sketchy at this time of 9AM....
TODAY: As expected, dry and elevated dusty air is moving into South Florida courtesy of Africa. Expect glared skies with filtered hot and humid air there today. Low level moisture is still quite plentiful though, so expect it will be very humid and hot over all of South Florida especially away from the coasts as far north as a line running from Ft. Pierce to Port Charlotte, but some low cumulus clouds will provide temporary respite.  Further north, the ridge axis (of high pressure) is forecast to remain far enough south that chances of quick showers are possible in green. Latest guidance in one model shows storms possible toward the SW coast (however). 

**Side note, yesterday wind gusts were measure in the 40-51mph associated with the storm/storms over North Brevard from Canaveral toward the Barge Canal.

Otherwise, extensive cloud cover is over the North half of the state so not really looking for significant storm activity north of I-4 today. Further south, low level instability as a result of that buoyant low level moist air under the dry mid and upper level air will mount and advect toward Central Florida during the day. At time, higher clouds are streaming across Central from the Northeast, but so far those are expected to dissipate by early-mid afternoon. Those will hold temperatures down a tad, but nonetheless, the invisible instability will be present as the day wears on. 

Winds are expected to become side shore or nearly so from Sebastian Inlet and north up the intra-coastals to a bit more onshore north of Melbourne Beach due to the curvature of the cape.  Steering today remains from the WSW at about 15-20 mph.

Any showers or storms that form north could send outflows south into the more unstable air mass which has less moisture content. Thus,any activity today will require the west coast sea breeze to progress 'silently ' eastward accompanied by those winds and into self created moisture convergence at the low levels along the east side of the state. This convergence along with instability advected north from South Florida and better vertical upward velocities (lifting convective motions) and coastal low level vorticity and some helicity could provide enough lift for a few thunderstorms, possibly strong with wind gusts in the 40-50mph north of SR 528 and South of New Smyrna Beach. Would expect little advance warning of any said potential activity (potential being the operative word), as storms could quickly escalate upward upon cross I-95 give or take a few miles. Winds, if such storm could manifest could outflow toward the Port to Melbourne beach regardless if it rains or not and be briefly gusty as well.

Due note, much of what happens late today is contingent upon dissipation of the high clouds in this same area  colored in the more vibrant color schemes through the north central portion of the state. For now, dispelling the SW coastal area near Ft. Meyers beyond low topped showers. 

FRIDAY: Dry ribbon to lift north to Central with South Florida already beginning to recover. Storms possible the west half of the state south of Lake Okeechobee in general and north Florida.

SATURDAY: Dry ribbon begins to fill in, with what appears will evolve into a chance of isolated activity near I-4 late day and toward the interior as moisture increases from South to North. This , so far, appears will be the better of the two day weekend for outdoor/beach related activities

SUNDAY:  Increasing S-SSE flow to advect a moisture surge northward with showers and thunder working up the coast and interior by late morning, possibly starting out South Florida in the early early day.
Or, perhaps this will be more cloud cover than shower activity. Either way, without much sun or much less of it by noon time or so..not such a great day for the beach appears to be the least as of now based on model consistency for 2 solid days.

BEYOND: One more dry time into early next week then the GFS insists now (and has been for a week) for a trough to eventually develop a trough running down the east coast along and east of the Appalachians with the gall to eventually drop a front into Central Florida by late next weekend or so, but given the time of year if even so this were to come to fruition in some form, it might make it toward I-10 or I-4 if this , in fact, evolves at all. Hard to be certain, but any high pressure building south from SE Canada ..opens up all kinds of options in what so far has been an atypical summer nation wide.  

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