"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Warm and Pleasant Until Friday/Showers & Thunder Then Possible Until...?

"Change in the Weather is About to Dawn"

TODAY- THURSDAY: Warming overnights and pleasant and sunny days ahead with inland highs in the lower to some mid 80sF and closer to 80F immediate beachside under sunny skies but with some increasing cloud cover each day as greater moisture works in from the south especially on Thursday. Meanwhile, a very vigorous and potent upper level low will form east of the Central Plains and head toward the Great Lakes. Though not sure of the exact definition of 'Bombing Out" , the bottom on this one is going to really drop out and pressure will be quite low. Expecting a vigorous QLCS type Squall Line with broken arching line segments and bow echoes with potentially tornadoes especially in Illinois , Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky but elongating out quickly into a straight line wind event. Eventually the event unfolds east to parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states and south. Much further south, Florida sits high and dry oblivious to what is going on to our west and north until Friday as the tail end of the front enters the panhandle.

FRIDAY: Again a warm if not warmest day of all, with SW winds possibly side shore south of I-4. Instability will be at about it's best since quite some time ago now with cold air aloft but with little in upper level winds. Chance of showers and some thunder though if conditions are ripe enough wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated strong storms with hail being the main hazard.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY: No point in going into specifics just yet, as the GFS is bouncing from one extreme to the other as to when the actual front will go through. After a very close call into Central it appears it will retreat back north and await the next upper level trough to rotate around the near H-Bomb Monster Mother Load Low by then in progress near the Canadian border. It is this front that is causing the bigger problem with whether or not it will make a thorough, scrubbingly clean passage or not. High pressure over and near Florida is reluctant to budge, Which will win out? Too soon to say.

As a prelim. rain chances again Saturday and Sunday, but cloud cover might become an increasing issue for wide coverage as well as 'any storm' strength though guidance continues to show ample instability (instant ability). Experience says the GFS has a hard time with instability over Florida beyond one day normally, though that is summer time norm for the model. Winter time? Hard to say how it will pan out, but suspect for now showers and possibly thunder one or both days if not even...

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, what will the front do. latest shows the front never hardly clearing Florida but as a very shallow boundary, which has not been the norm for the most part over the past three days and 12 other model runs of the GFS. now showing possibly thunder on Monda and or Tuesday...Regardless...

FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 4 :  It is this week that is of greater interest as there has been a rather consistent tread of the GFS to show for a potential one if not two (as of the last run) severe weather events across the might just be plain much cooler than normal. So far, running 50/50, Either/Or.  

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