"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Possible "Stronger-ish" Storms Central Florida Later Today

"Waiting for Peak Heating for Strongest Activity Today"

Storm Offshore Cape Canaveral on Friday, February 21

Image composed at 7AM this morning.
Not much from this line of thinking  but could change to extend thunder chances
south toward Ft. Pierce (at least)
TODAY: Frontal boundary is already near the location shown in the image above generated around 7AM this morning. Boundary should slow down or stall near location shown  -   surface based instability is expected to be greater than yesterday with continued cold air aloft; and 'helicity' in the atmosphere should be available close to what remains of the boundary as other conditions are not much different than yesterday other than winds are more unidirectional today than was the case yesterday. Storms could form near that boundary and 'roll off' south into parts of Central. Best chance for activity to begin forming and rolling east and offshore would be after 2-3pm with the last of it offshore by dark or shortly thereafter.   Short term guidance has been flipping around a lot, but this blog post is based on the consistency of the GFS showing greatest vertical velocities across Central for 2 days now, and the latest short term RAP-RUC is now showing the same. Locally heavy rainfall possible and frequent lightning possible it would seem, but time will tell. Sure feels a bit 'juicy' out there right now for February. On this day in 1998 the worst Tornado Outbreak in Central Florida history occurred beginning after 10pm.

BEYOND: The frontal boundary will lift north and dissipate overnight, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms through Monday and/or Tuesday remaining as temperatures remain above normal to perhaps much above 'normal' by around Tuesday;   but as noted yesterday, each day will have its own unique set of circumstances. There might well be a day that chances on one or more days will be very low.

About the only change in latest models since yesterday is that a bigger rain - type event seems to be going away now. The GFS has rain chances extended into Wednesday afternoon, and from there it will be a matter of what if anything begins to form in the Western Gulf region to slide toward 'somewhere across Florida'.  Would be interesting to see if that bigger rain chance re - materializes in later model runs.

No comments: