|"Open Country "|
WEDNESDAY: Upper level trough and associated W-SW flow aloft (storm steering winds from SW to NE) should increase the chances of East Coast locations including the beaches having a better chance of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures aloft will also begin to cool close to the trough axis (Thursday) and over Florida. Early onset of activity as well by early afternoon is possible, especially on Thursday with showers and storms moving off shore possibly as late as well after dark on Wednesday.
THURSDAY: There appears to be a signal for strong to pulse severe storms this day as temperatures aloft per the Global Forecast System (GFS) model indicates quite cold air aloft in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere and perhaps a weak jet streak across the state if the GFS is to be believed. Earlier onset of storms and delayed east coast sea breeze (if one at all in some locations) would suggest some strong storms especially north of the Ft Pierce area outside of a Lake Breeze induced storm in that general area toward Vero Beach, with good areal storm/rain coverage this day as well. This would be a day possibly to monitor your preferred weather monitoring utilities (i.e., Local Tv Stations) by mid afternoon.
FRIDAY: At this day is where guidance begins to differ with the GFS backing off on storms being steered to the east coast. Much will depend on how the trough that approach the state on Wednesday/Thursday interacts with high pressure to the east of Florida. It appears that high pressure might win out though as of early Tuesday morning's model run, which would mean that east coast locations would remain dry. On the other hand, deep moisture and light SSE winds (but very light) early day would lead one to consider that early day showers near the coast would be possible.
In the extend, the GFS continues to show a 'tropical entity' to form near the Yucatan Peninsula to lift north toward the Central or East Central Gulf later in the month, but this model has been showing that to occur since late May. If one of those earlier model runs were to be believed (or had been such as one around May 25th), Florida would be being threatened by heavy tropical downpours and/or possibly mini-supercell storms tomorrow (June 11th) based on the model runs of late May into early June, but clearly that is not the case as it stands now. This places a big crimp in the extended otu look as a result, because what the GFS shows for that area affects the Florida weather well before any such storm actually would approach the state.