"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, June 20, 2011

On the 29th Anniversary of Hurricane Agnes Some Sparks Will Fly!

Graphical Depiction of Where Weak to Strong Tornadoes
Impacted Florida During the Passage of Hurricane Agnes in 1972. The track is shown to the West of  the Peninsula in lavender. Blue dots are severe thunderstorms/red triangles, tornadoes

THE SITUATION: Not a whole lot different today than yesterday but there are some subtle changes that will make a difference from Sunday. It is 12:30pm and the East Coast sea breeze has yet to form north of South Florida. It should begin during the next 30-60minutes and work from South to North up the coast. The breeze north of Vero Beach might first be felt from the N-NE and remain quite late until the true sea breeze arrival later in the afternoon. This wind will remain close to the coast..and will not be the full bore sea breeze.

Meanwhile, the upper level trough that was the impetus for large storm coverage over South Florida yesterday has pressed into the Atlantic..this area is now under some upper level subsident (sinking air)...but residual moisture remains and continues from a more southern source. Instability is not quite as strong down that way today and wind fields are much weaker aloft now that the upper trough has pulled east. Further exemplified by the fact that waterspouts have been able to form well off the coast of Ft. Lauderdale (in general), which require weak low level wind fields.  Further north, significant mid-level drying has occurred along and north of the Beachline.  Like yesterday, strongest mid-level westerlies prevail over North Florida.  It will be quite hot today along I-10 to JAX/TLH and south along the St. John's River Valley Basin to west of Ormond Beach.

TODAY:   TRICK-cast today...especially in the 'where it will rain today' department. All convection/showers/storms will be sea-breeze/Lake breeze boundary driven induced under a moderately unstable atmosphere.  The strongest storms will occur in general after 3:30pm when instability has been built up, boundaries have formed and begin to run into each other. That will happen over South Florida first, which is almost always the case when little to no other synoptic scale features are present. Some of the strongest storms in South Florida today will result from the Lake/Sea Breeze handshakes in Palm Beach and Broward County, possibly Martin County west of I-95. Other strong storms will occur near Miami metro but probably the strongest storms will occur  over  less populated areas around "The Lake" / Everglades.

SOUTH CENTRAL: Storms in South Central Florida will not even consider beginning to form until the sea-breeze boost begins from the SE-SSE from South to North with time, first in Indian River County. This boost should reach South Brevard around 4pm-4:40pm  which will then send the East Coast Seabreeze boundary inland in rapid fashion. Storms will form as the boundary accelerates inland then be left behind to linger in their own pee and die as the boundary continues.

Meanwhile. the west coast sea breeze could perform just the opposite..accelerating from North to South. Net affect will be that the sea breezes will begin to approach each other after 5pm well inland.  It is at this time that the best chance of an isolated strong storm or two is possible, mostly over Osceola/Okeechobee/Polk Counties with a random renegade strong storm in Lake County due to the extra moisture provided by the nearby lakes which the models do not pick up on.  Could be some showers along the St. John's River Valley Basin in NE Florida..but would be very short lived and not strong due to the very dry mid level air...solely on moisture convergence which will be quickly spent to simply form the clouds.

Thunder could occur (and/or be heard) in the Orange Areas today. Showers/Storms will be isolated for the most part to scattered for a time over South Florida and perhaps a portion of South Central Florida. Some very strong storms could occur in underpopulated areas of Osceola and Polk County after 6pm until shortly after sunset where some drier air from just to the north will be en-trained into updrafts..OR..that dry air will altogether prevent them. Could be interesting there today. See more in the following paragraphs. 

THIS EVENING: If there are even any storms to be found late today...the strongest storms should occur over  Okeechobee to  Northern Osceola County where mid-level dry air from  North Central Florida could be en-trained into the updrafts. Thus, if there are to be any briefly strong to pulse severe storms today, believe they will be either over Osceola/Okee/Polk County.

 In any case, it looks now as though any such storm would occur over a lowly populated area and will be hard to confirm its nature by an actual person.  Nearby swamp lands and marsh over SW Brevard County could add a boost to storms in Osceola County as they begin to en-train drier air from the north while receiving a moisture boost off the enhanced sea breeze as it blows over that terrain.

 Additionally, the strongest storms should occur over South Central due to the combined efforts of the enhanced late afternoon east coast sea-breeze, Lake Breeze, and  mass convergence PRECEDING the actual time the two breezes meet superimposed with contraflow areas. This should begin roughly after 5pm and peak between 6 - 8pm.  Storms will quickly dwindle once the sea breezes have embraced, shook hands, and are no longer arguing shortly after the sun sets and outflows kill any other surrounding showers. 

 Might be a orphan  or custody battle straggler though in Lake County for while after dark...or, perhaps in the custody battle, the Lake County area will never be able to generate a storm as South Central wins sole custody tonight. Any  activity, if it is occurs north of the Beachline, will be isolated and easy to spot (and avoid) if desired. As should that over South Central.

TOMORROW: Looks to be completely different from today but favoring more toward the West Side of The State with little in the way to completely deter showers or enhance them. 

WEDNESDAY: More favored for far North Florida with some isolated activity south of there.

TRANSITION DAY (Thursday): Like clockwork...the TRUE FLORIDA SUMMER WET SEASON MIGHT VERY WELL BEGIN almost on Calendar Summer (June 21). 

This would be the second latest the wet season has ever started on record'; second only to 1998 when it began in July sometime.

 Beginning Thursday and beyond, it looks  like the rule of thumb more often than not will  be hunting more for where it will not rain rather than where it will...easy to do..Just highlight A1A from Cape Canaveral to Cocoa Beach and you can't lose ;-(.

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