"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, June 3, 2013

Good Chance of Thunder Again Today With Heavy Rainfall / Frequent Lightning /Funnels?

Linear Arcus Cloud along leading edge of thunderstorm -
Banana River, Cape Canaveral , FL - Sunday Evening
TODAY: Tsunami of atmospheric moisture appears will be moving in from the SW portion of the state early on to reach the East Central Coast mainly along and  south of I-4 by mid-afternoon. Chances are this will not be fully realized until after 4pm near the immediate coast east of I-95. Regardless, despiste SW flow aloft, a sea breeze should be able to set up by around noon time if not a bit earlier but not make much inland penetration. The heaviest activity as usual would occur over a larger area as the west coast sea breeze presses eastward to meet the east coast sea breeze. In particular, if a more side shore component type sea breeze sets up the area near Cape Canaveral-Port St. John - Titusville - N. Merritt Island could get 'interesting'.

With that said and noted, and if that is what actually does end up being the cast, the heaviest rainfall would occur along and east of I-95 mainly from southern Volusia County southward to Palm Beach County area. Wouldn't be surprised with such a fresh influx of Deep Atmospheric Moisture exceeding 2.0" (perhaps as high as Precipitable Water of 2.3") that some 'funnel cloud like looking' clouds shapes might be noted today  although there might actually end up being  a  waterspout threat later today along the river ways or out over the ocean, but the biggest danger would be the lightning. Rainfall could persist near the east coast (mainly) until near midnight in some locations if all unfolds as suspected this early hour of the day.

Invest 91L shown near the Yucatan with weak inverted mid-level trough extending toward Florida. Watching that purple area for some bigger rainfall totals and maybe some 'water spoutage action?". 
TUESDAY: This day looks very iffy regarding thunderstorms coverage. High precipitable water values will be in place but am wondering if cloud coverage and/or weak & chaotic wind patterns won't make it a bit difficult at this point to pin-point when and/or where rain will actually occur. Broad brushing it for now, same goes for Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Still not much change in guidance for Thursday being the most active day, at least as far as the 8pm model runs went; however, the 2AM GFS really holds off on any significant weather to occur any day, with whatever comes out of the Gulf never really making it to Florida at all. But, based on very very close model consensus (The GFS and the ECMWF) with both showing a mid-level vorticity max to rotate around a larger low pressure area and then in advance of it from Thursday morning and across South Central to Central Florida during the day and into the early evening, a brief 'severe weather window of opportunity' presents itself. This is still a number of days away to be considered too seriously though. Regardless, if this indeed does end up being the case, it appears a tornado watch would be warranted with Hodographs and Soundings Looking like this once again:

NOTE that LARGE LOOP in the lower left hand corner with the location for that shown on the right. That spells major rotating thunderstorm (at least), a tornado producing type. On the other hand, this is all contingent on whether or not that vorticity max alluded to in the above paragraph is actually 'For Real".
BEYOND: With all that has been said, the extended into Friday and beyond is contingent upon what is to occur (or not occur) on the Thursday time frame. If the last GFS is correct in holding back any type of 'system' crossing the state (noting the ECMWF is still quite adamant of a 'center' crossing near I-4 to just north of it ...) there will still remain the chance of afternoon activity and greater cloud coverage with daytime heating into at least Saturday if not longer, with a 'settling in' of a more summer like sea breeze pattern evolving, favoring the interior and east side of the state. Another trough again is forecast to suppress the Atlantic High pressure ridge axis across the state to somewhere across the Lake Okeechobee area making for a SW-W steering currents aloft for late day east coast storms from isolated to scattered.

It is with deepest regards that HSD extends condolences to 3 highly acclaimed Storm Study Entrepreneurs that passed away during the recent unusual tornadic event near Oklahoma City a few days ago. 

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