"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 18, 2011

Scattered Thunderstorms South Florida, Showers Elsewhere With Isolated ThunderM

Most if not all activity today will occur SOUTH of the Yellow Line. Actually, toward the west side that line should probably be placed further South, but it is located there for now to account for unforeseen 20-30% rain chances possibly becoming reality later today. North of the yellow line: mostly low topped showers, although one or two might thunder. Expect this to be generated much later today as a ridge wrapping around Tropical Storm  Bret now north of the Bahamas and moving NNE at 5mph  starts to relocate. The ridge across North Central/North Florida is suppressing rain showers early this afternoon.
Will also need to watch the gravy train of showers coming in across far South Brevard and Indian River Counties. As Bret lifts slowly north this axis might also do so in tandem. This is an outlier notion though, but worth considering. I honestly do not fore see this to it will be interesting to see what happens with that area. I'm actually expecting it to simply wash out.
TODAY: Was going to take the day off since not much is going to go on most of the day other than over the South Half of the state. Looks like rain showers and some thunder will be getting underway...finally amassing later today toward SW Florida by day's end..with other activity just about anywhere but favoring toward the coasts all around South Florida and the Everglades.

Further North, latest satellite imagery is showing  several lines of cumulus and showers well  to the ENE of the state, but they are currently making a bee line toward Eastern portions of the North half of the state. If this batch of moisture is to arrive, it would not be until after 3:30pm North Florida and closer toward 6pm the further south one goes.  Interesting that the latest RUC 18 hour run is trying to wrap deeper moisture around from where showers are occurring over Palm Beach County Northward as Bret inches away later today and opens up the broad low pressure circulation the is encompassing most of the peninsula today.and brings a bigger wave of showers in on Northern Brevard about the same time as the other batch arrives which does not make sense. Either way, all the models are showing that eventually there will be isolated rain showers, moving into North Florida at some point or another today, so I drew it in..although that chance honestly seems a bit sketchy right now...and would not be willing to bet more than 3 dollars on it at this point. I didn't bite on that idea yesterday, and the models were really going to town on the chance up there... Then again, I'm not the gambling type.

BEYOND: Mostly a far South Florida rain chance tomorrow, but much less of one than today as Bret and its accompanying mid level low pressure axis pull out of the area down there. We will be transitioning tomorrow from Bret's departure..and there will be few focal points other than moisture convergence boundaries along the sea breeze and lake breeze fronts. By Wednesday, it looks Bret will be far enough away to leave most of the state in a neutral state of affairs, favoring a late afternoon sea breeze convergence in the far interior. However, this is a big departure from previous lines of model reasoning  which mostly only had South Central Florida under the 'chance of rain' gun.

Not going to dive into anything in regard to where rains will occur later in the week. Showers/thunder will remain mostly isolated through Thursday and possibly Friday with late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms where moisture convergence is maximized over the interior sectors west of I-95. Rain chances should be best over South Central Florida through Friday. Into the weekend a boundary might be approaching the Deep South, and overall atmospheric moisture profiles are expected to increase significantly along and ahead of the boundary over North and northern portions of North Central Florida for higher thunder and rain chances.
Will leave it vague for today otherwise. Tropical Storm 'Brat' is disrupting the normal afternoon shower and thunderstorm diurnal cycle and needs to be GONE post-haste so we can return to our normal lives.

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