Image: Sunrise off Harrison Ave this morning
A major severe weather outbreak is getting primed for explosion today across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky as a strong low both surface and aloft cranks into the region. Anitcyclonic circulation around strong high pressure east of Florida combined with strong cyclonic circulation around this complex low pressure system will induce influx of a warm and very moist subtropical air mass into the region. This coupled with pockets of upper level energy in combination with strong shearing winds in speed and direction will literally crank the warm, moist air mass with explosive results. Strong updrafts in supercell thunderstorms will easily acquire rotation which will thusly result in severely strong surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. I would not be surprised to hear of at least one violent, long tracked tornado today into tonight within this region.
Meanwhile, closer to home:
TODAY: Partly cloudy, warmish, blustery and 'sticky' with a SSE wind at 12-22 mph and a high near 80F degrees.
TONIGHT: High and some midlevel clouds on the increase. Comfortable temperature with a low along the coast of 73. Sticky and goo-ey along the beach as plenty of salty particulates will be embedded and carried aloft off the ocean within the winds blowing at 10-15mph out of the SSE-S.
EARLY SUNDAY: High cloud overcast - broken mid-level deck-lower clouds developing within a few hours after sunrise. Salty and sticky right on the coast as particulates from the ocean will be carried aloft and combine with a very moist air mass. Winds South at 15-20mph with gusts to 28mph developing by noon.
**FROM THIS PORTION ON WILL REQUIRE REVISION TOMORROW MORNING FOR SURE**
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It currently appears that the first of at least two more 'outstanding' rain chances will exist from early through late afternoon as at least one of maybe more prefrontal troughs enter the region. In fact, the strong winds nearly parallel to the coast may in and of itself produce a trough that will run up down along the Coastal Plain.. TRICKY STUFF HERE FOLKS.
Thus, a chance of thunderstorms within the Central portion of the state (they will have already been present just to the north overnight) anytime after 1:30pm. Some of the storms could be quite strong!! In the interim, we should warm to 84F along the coast and into the upper 80s west of US-1. The air will be moisture laden and warm, but the sun will struggle to make an appearance. We might be in a severe thunderstorm watch or even a tornado watch by early-mid afternoon!!
SUNDAY NIGHT/OVERNIGHT: The second or perhaps third opportunity to receive rain will make its presence known. Again, storms could be severe and possibly produce a tornado. We might be at the southern edge of a tornado watch during this time.
EARLY MONDAY: Storms to have shifted south but some rain might still be lingering, otherwise cloudy with a west wind of 10-15mph.
REST OF MONDAY: Eventually partly cloudy by late afternoon with continued storms from around a Palm Beach-Fort Myers line continuing throughout the day. Somewhat breezy W-WNW winds and a high in the mid-upper 70s.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Uneventfully pleasant, with finer details as to what will be influencing our weather at that time once Monday is over with. For now, suffice it to say it appears another weak front will enter the picture with the only affect of producing some clouds...otherwise the wind will gradually weaken and swing around to the east midweek.