"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Atypical April To Continue Very Warm with Rain Chances Into the Weekend

April Towers Bring  Spring Flowers
TODAY: For the blog today, big wagering guess at hand.  Most models earlier this morning in the short term showed near NO RAIN at all nearly statewide today (HRRR and RAP e.g.) with the NAM not far behind, whereas the Global Forecast System (GFS) model breaks out 'rain abundance' Central Florida later today. Not much has changed either in subsequent model runs. Instability not runny quite as high today  and steering currents are lower than yesterday. Most of the discrepancies might be coming from whether High pressure to the south will build too far north with rising 500 mb heights for if that does occur our Prime Storm Time might be snuffed out entirely. But if not, then it's all gang  - bangers once again. Suspect today might play the wild card out though, so would not be surprised to see lower coverage today, if not significantly so. But to favor consistency regardless in the wake of yesterday's active shortwave.

 If nothing more, it will be interesting to see which model fares best..the short range guidance as of 11AM or the Long Range GFS model of 8AM this morning:

Best Guess for now. South Florida date coming in is shows drying in progress which would imply 'no or few storms' and north Florida per the short term Mesoscale/RAP shows a deficient in favorable storm conditions , esp. NE Florida . This leaves Central until sea breezes kick in, then everything will change anyway in that area as well. GFS also shows the highest rainfall total by late tonight to be East Brevard County which would be most interesting if so, as right now that looks to be highly unlikely. We can see how models fared today is the gist of it
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Not going to venture too far out into the Deep End as it appears an upper level disturbance or more than one might be approaching the region for these days. Timing , location, and cloud coverage on those days will determine a lot of factors as far as what is experienced locally from benign to quite active. In the end, rain 'chances' (emphasis) remain but that's where it begins and ends for now as far as the blog post is concerned.

BEYOND: Warm temperatures continue with higher than normal rain chances which is not necessarily saying all that much since this time of year is normally in the dry season.

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